00:00It's Benzinga bringing Wall Street to Main Street.
00:02Prediction market bettors raised expectations for a U.S. recession in 2026
00:07as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel, according to CNBC.
00:13Kalshi's recession market climbed above 34% on Monday,
00:16its highest level since November, after sitting below 25% late last week.
00:21The increase followed a sharp rally in crude after Middle Eastern producers cut output
00:25and the Strait of Hormuz closed during the U.S.-Iran war.
00:28Economists warned that prolonged oil prices above $100 could pressure consumer and business spending.
00:36Kalshi's bettors see an 11% chance of a U.S. recession beginning in the first quarter,
00:41while polymarket bettors assign a 31% probability of a recession by the end of the year.
00:46Kalshi defines a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.
00:52The National Bureau of Economic Research uses a broader definition
00:55based on a widespread decline in economic activity that lasts more than a few months.
01:01For all things money, visit Benzinga.com.
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