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The conflict has triggered fuel crises in Bangladesh and Pakistan, though Indian supplies remain stable. Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian maintains a stance of national resilience despite ongoing strikes.
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00:00Good evening. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hekshat has warned Iran of the most intense strikes that will take
00:08place today.
00:09The United States insists Iran's missile firing capabilities have been crippled up to 90 percent.
00:16Drone strike capabilities up to 83 percent on the 11th day of the war.
00:22But Iran refuses to either surrender or even consider a ceasefire.
00:27Iran, on the contrary, has threatened to massively escalate with reports from Tehran indicating Iran will now attack Israel and
00:38U.S. interests in the region with newer generation missiles with a payload of one ton and more.
00:45Not just that. Iran has warned the United States and Israel they may have started the war, but Iran will
00:53end the war and on Iran's terms.
00:56There is a widespread fear this war may escalate and escalate very dangerously in the days ahead, even though U
01:04.S. President Donald Trump on day 11 insists most of their war aims have been met.
01:10And according to him, he is indicating the war may end soon.
01:16Donald Trump says it's possible he would be willing to talk to Iran.
01:22The U.S., according to him, has made significant progress in limiting Iran's missile strike capabilities.
01:29Washington, D.C. indicates more than 50 Iranian warships, Iranian Navy warships have been destroyed in the past 11 days.
01:40Pete Hexin says Iran will be hit harder than ever if it does anything to stop the flow of oil
01:46and energy through the Strait of Hormuz.
01:49Iran's National Security Council Secretary, Ali Larjani, he's rebuffed any threats.
01:57He insists and he's made it very clear to the Americans and to Israel, Iran does not fear your empty
02:05threats.
02:05The United Arab Emirates says it's intercepted just today, eight missiles and 26 drones, so there's dangerous escalation on the
02:14cards at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken both to the Russian President Vladimir Putin and
02:20to the Chinese President Xi Jinping.
02:22The question, is there an off-ramp or are we staring at very dangerous escalation with Iran targeting oil facilities
02:30in the Gulf region, trying to draw in other countries into this conflict?
02:34I'll get you much more on this, but first, we get you a report on the day's developments.
02:50Day 11 of the U.S.-Iran war.
02:52From Tehran to the Strait of Hormuz, from Gulf bases to the skies over Israel, the war is spreading across
03:00the region.
03:04U.S. Central Command released images of HIMARS rocket systems deployed in the region, saying they are helping launch precision
03:11strikes on Iranian targets.
03:15America also released dramatic footage, believed to be from a carrier in the Gulf, showing missiles fired towards Iran and
03:22fighter jets launching from bombing missions.
03:25But even as the strikes continue, Donald Trump says the war may end soon.
03:32Iran is a very powerful country. They were going to take over the Middle East.
03:35If we did not hit them, those weapons were aimed at Middle Eastern countries that had nothing to do with
03:43this.
03:43So we stopped it with good timing.
03:47And we're very proud to be involved in this, and it's going to be ended soon.
03:52And if it starts up again, they'll be hit even harder.
03:58Still, the U.S. President is warning Tehran against escalating further.
04:03We're doing this for the other parts of the world, including countries like China.
04:08They get a lot of their oil through the straits, and we're protecting the world from what these lunatics are
04:18trying to do, and very successfully.
04:21But when the time comes, the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the straits if needed.
04:27Washington claims that Iran is running out of missiles, and that today was least amount of missiles fired by them.
04:35The last 24 hours have seen Iran fire the lowest number of missiles they've been capable of firing yet.
04:43Our strikes mean we've made significant progress in reducing the number of missile and drone attacks out of Iran.
04:50Ballistic missile attacks continue to trend downward, 90 percent from where they've started.
04:56And one-way attack drones have decreased 83 percent since the beginning of the operation.
05:04The warning comes as tensions rise around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries nearly 20 percent of
05:11the world's oil supply.
05:14Iran responding with its own threat.
05:17The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declaring not a single liter of oil will leave the region if U.S. and
05:23Israeli attacks continue.
05:48Even as bombs fall, crowds gathered in Tehran, chanting defiance.
05:59Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Arachi, says the country is unlikely to resume talks with the United States.
06:07So I don't think, you know, talking with Americans anymore would be, you know, on our agenda anymore.
06:14This is a war imposed on us, and what we are doing is only defending ourselves.
06:20We are facing an act of aggression which is absolutely illegal.
06:25At the same time, Tehran has laid down strict conditions for mediation.
06:29Iran says talks can only begin after a full ceasefire, with guarantees that attacks will stop permanently.
06:37So while Washington says the war could end soon, Tehran insists the fight will continue and the world remains on
06:45the edge.
06:54And let me now get you some details of the cost of war that's sharply spiking.
07:00Estimates indicate that this war is costing the United States upwards of $1 billion per day and counting.
07:08So in the first 10 days of war, the United States has spent more than $10.2 billion, with about
07:15$5.6 billion.
07:16And these are all estimates that are coming in from the United States.
07:20$5.6 billion worth of munition used in just the first 48 hours of the strike.
07:26That is how intense the bombing of Iran, not just Tehran, but across Iran.
07:33That's how intense the bombing was.
07:34The battlefield losses are also mounting for the United States of America.
07:3911 MQ-9 Reaper drones have been shot down, and each drone costs between $30 to $35 million.
07:48At least two, and this is one of the biggest losses to the United States, two THARD systems.
07:55This is terminal high-altitude area defense systems.
07:58Two THARD systems worth approximately $500 million each.
08:03They've been hit, and that just goes on to indicate how precise is Iranian targeting of U.S. assets.
08:10And this would indicate, now, when THARD systems are taken down, when radars are taken down,
08:15the U.S. and Israel, in some areas, they're fighting blind.
08:20The United States has fired more than 170 Tomahawk cruise missiles, costing about $626 million.
08:28Then, there are other munition and precision strike munitions, $33 million on that.
08:35There are massive bunker busters, the GBU-31s, costing about $28 million.
08:42Iran's retaliation has damaged key U.S. assets in the region, including a $1.1 billion early warning radar at
08:49a base in Qatar.
08:50And this happened on day one of the conflict on February 28th itself.
08:55The same day, $20 million worth of U.S. satellite communication terminals were destroyed in Bahrain.
09:00Another $30 million worth of Red Oms were hit in Camp Arjan in Kuwait.
09:07Then, on the 2nd of March, and this is a blue-on-blue strike, which is extremely, extremely expensive,
09:14as far as the United States are concerned.
09:16Three U.S. F-15 Strike Eagle fighter jets, they were lost in what U.S. claims is friendly fire
09:24incident.
09:25This cost the U.S. another $282 million.
09:28The conflict has taken a human toll now, with the 8th U.S. service personnel confirmed killed in action.
09:38The economic impact is spreading beyond the battlefield, with Israel estimating the damage from the air war with Iran
09:44at nearly $2.9 billion every week for Israel.
09:50Now, apprehension is, at least that's what Iran is saying, this war, they are now going to strike with precision
09:59weapons,
09:59with newer generation weapons.
10:02Each missile with a payload of one ton will target either Israel or U.S. interests in the region.
10:09The United States has warned Iran that the most intense airstrikes will take place in hours from now.
10:15Some of the strikes have started, even as we speak.
10:18Iran insists it will neither surrender nor seek a ceasefire.
10:22Despite 11 days of intense bombing, Iran continues to strike back and hard.
10:27So, is this war actually progressing as per the Israeli and American plan?
10:33Joining me on India First, live from Jerusalem, is David Mensah, top aide and spokesperson of Israel's Prime Minister,
10:40Benjamin Netanyahu, Mr. Mensah, welcome.
10:44Iran says U.S. and Israel started the war.
10:47Iran will end it on its terms.
10:50Is Iran doing better than you expected?
10:54What is your assessment, Mr. Mensah, on day 11 of this conflict?
11:00Gaurav, it's good to be with you again.
11:02Thank you for having me and allowing me to share with you the latest position from Israel's perspective.
11:07We set out a very clear objective in this war.
11:10That is to remove the nuclear threat and ensure that the Iranian regime can never obtain nuclear weapons.
11:17That has been our overwhelming objective.
11:20And when you say that Israel started this war, just a reminder for your viewers that we will never allow
11:28a regime
11:29that has, since for the last 47 years, been shouting death to Israel, death to America.
11:35Now, experience has taught the Jewish people that when someone says that they wish to kill your people,
11:43to wipe your nation off the face of the earth, then experience has taught us to listen to them and
11:48to believe them.
11:49And I tell you, Gaurav, we do believe them.
11:52When they shout death to Israel, we know that the most dangerous weapons in the world
11:58can never go into the possession of the most dangerous regime in the world.
12:02So we're working very hard to destroy Iran's war machine.
12:06We're severely degrading their ballistic missile program as well.
12:10But also their proxies.
12:12We're taking apart their ability to support their proxies as well.
12:16But I would say at the moment we're ahead of schedule and we're doing very, very well.
12:21Okay. So you say you're ahead of schedule and you're doing very well.
12:25Despite early decapitation or assassination, as Iran puts it, the regime did not collapse.
12:32There is a new supreme leader.
12:33The system appears to be in place, holding back and fighting back.
12:38So it's holding and fighting back.
12:40Are you in for a long-term conflict, sir?
12:45Well, the prime minister has said very, very clearly that it will continue as long as is necessary.
12:51He made clear this is not years long, but it will continue as long as is necessary to ensure that
12:59the existential threat from the Iranian regime is neutralized.
13:02So that's why our IDF, the Israel Defense Forces, are striking military and regime targets in Iran in close coordination
13:12with our partners, the United States.
13:14And I'll tell you the difference between what Iran is telling you and the truth is that Iran are focusing
13:21almost exclusively here in Israel on residential targets, on places where ordinary people live.
13:30I've told, I may have said this before, but, you know, just last week, I visited with the prime minister,
13:37the small town of Beit Shemesh, which was hit by one of these Iranian ballistic missiles.
13:43The first thing I did when I got there is I looked around.
13:46There were no military sites there.
13:48There were no police sites there or any symbols of the state.
13:52There was a synagogue there and that ballistic missile hit that synagogue and killed people hiding in the shelter, taking
14:00shelter there.
14:01It killed nine people, three children from the same family.
14:06Iran's objective is to instill terror into our people.
14:10That is the nature of their terrorist regime.
14:12They are firing at our civilians.
14:15We, on the other hand, are firing at the terrorist masterminds and the controllers of this regime.
14:23And we've had tremendous success.
14:25Okay.
14:26Though President Trump says many of the war aims have been met and the war may be ending soon.
14:32Are the U.S. and Israel on the same page, Mr. Mensah?
14:40Look, I can share with your viewers, Gaurav, that the prime minister and the president, President Trump and Prime Minister
14:49Netanyahu, are in daily contact, sometimes more than once a day, on the phone.
14:56And both of us agree.
14:58And this is what I think President Trump means.
15:00He says that we've achieved major operational success against Iran.
15:06The Israeli Air Force has achieved significant aerial superiority over Iran.
15:12In fact, just today, our Air Force was in operation again, taking out military targets into Iran.
15:19And all the while, we're striking these targets across Iran.
15:24Thousands of strikes of targeted missiles, production sites, military infrastructure, air defences and weapons transfers to Iranian proxies such as
15:34Hezbollah.
15:35All of these things have been taken out because our message is extremely clear right now.
15:40And the Iranians would do well to listen to my voice.
15:42Israel now has the freedom to strike any target in Iran that threatens our security.
15:49And that's precisely what we're doing.
15:52But right now, sir, it's the global energy security that's in jeopardy.
15:57Take, for example, the Strait of Hormuz that remains shut.
16:01Oil and gas prices are rising across the world.
16:04The, you know, there's intense turmoil due to this.
16:07Is there an off-ramp?
16:08Because Iran says, let alone any talk of surrender, despite the series of strikes that you mentioned,
16:15let alone surrender, there is no question of a ceasefire either.
16:21Look, our decision to take forward this war was taken with the knowledge that this is precisely what Iran would
16:28do.
16:29It would try to hold the rest of the world hostage by raising oil prices.
16:34President Trump has made clear that the U.S. Armed Forces have destroyed,
16:38destroyed, practically all but destroyed, the Iranian navy.
16:43Both of our governments are working on a plan to make sure that the Straits of Hormuz are open,
16:49because Iran no longer has, effectively no longer has a navy.
16:54And President Trump has also made clear that U.S. warships and U.S. firepower will escort oil through those
17:02straits
17:03to make sure that this element whereby the Iranian regime are trying to blackmail the entire world will not succeed.
17:12The Prime Minister, Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump are very focused on this issue.
17:18And you can be sure that this element whereby the Iranians are trying to blackmail us will not succeed.
17:26Okay, so you say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump,
17:31they speak almost every day, sometimes more than once.
17:35The IRGC has just made a statement that they will now deploy missiles with a payload of more than one
17:42ton.
17:43U.S. assessment that more than 90% of missile strike capabilities of Iran have been taken down,
17:49close to 83% of their drone strike capabilities have been taken down.
17:53What remains, sir, is that even more lethal, newer generation missiles and is the worst yet to come in this
18:02conflict?
18:03Look, we're well aware of Iran's capabilities.
18:07We're also well aware of our anti-missile technology.
18:11The defence shield which we've developed here, thank God, is very, very effective.
18:17It's in the high 90s percent, but still it's not hermetic and missiles and ballistic missiles,
18:24including cluster bombs, which are illegal under international law, are still finding,
18:32a few of them are finding their way through into Israel.
18:35I'll tell you, from Israel's home front perspective, our people remain resilient despite these Iranian attacks.
18:43Iran continues to launch these missiles and UAVs towards our civilian populations,
18:48but our defensive systems are working and we're encouraging all of our people,
18:54which they are doing now to a very, very high degree,
18:56strict adherence to our home front command instructions,
18:59which tells people when and how to take cover.
19:03And that message is saving lives.
19:06So I'll tell you, from Israel's point of view, our home front is strong.
19:10We are resilient.
19:11And I'll also tell you something else, Gaurav, which maybe doesn't come across in international media.
19:16From left to right in this country, and you know, Gaurav, because you understand Israeli politics,
19:21you know that this country has a very vibrant, charged political environment.
19:26From left to right, there is a unity, and that unity is for victory.
19:33Victory to make sure that this Islamist regime, which threatens not only us here in Israel,
19:40but the rhetoric which they use here in Israel, which we take seriously,
19:43is the same rhetoric used by Islamists on the streets of New Delhi and in other parts of India,
19:49which is why we are so appreciated what your Prime Minister, Prime Minister Modi,
19:55said to us here in Israel just a few days ago.
19:58He said that Israel and India, Prime Minister Modi and Prime Minister Netanyahu,
20:04share a zero tolerance for terrorism.
20:09So, zero tolerance to terror is your aim, and this operation, you say, sir,
20:13will continue as long as it takes to remove the regime in Iran,
20:18and we'll be tracking that story very closely.
20:21David Mensah, for joining me here on India Today, many thanks.
20:25Are Israel and the United States on the same page when it comes to the war aims?
20:32Because a very important principle of war is not just statement of aim,
20:37but maintenance of aim in combat.
20:40Has the US changed the goalpost not just once, but repeatedly in the past 11 days?
20:45And does that then send confusing signals to commanders on ground on what the aim is
20:51and whether it's being maintained through the course of battle?
20:54Take, for example, multiple statements of US President Donald Trump from the 28th of February.
21:00So, on the 28th of February, the US President, he took a hard line.
21:04He warned Iran to surrender or face death.
21:08He pledged that Iran's war-fighting capabilities, their missile industry, their navy, it would be decimated.
21:16Then, on the 2nd of March, there was a change in tone.
21:19Donald Trump suggested that the conflict could last maybe four, maybe five weeks,
21:24insisting America would ultimately, the United States would prevail.
21:28Forced forward to the 9th of March, the messaging shifted once again with Donald Trump claiming
21:33the United States has already won in many ways and the war could end soon.
21:38So, from threats of annihilation to predictions of weeks-long conflict
21:43to saying it's a quick victory or will be a quick victory,
21:48White House goalposts appear to be moving as the conflict now enters day 12 very soon.
21:55India today gets you more in this report.
21:59Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete,
22:02but your Defence Secretary says this is just the beginning.
22:04So, which is it and how long should Americans be aware of this war?
22:07Well, I think it could share a buzz.
22:08It appears that US's ongoing action against Iran will go down in history as Schrodinger's war.
22:15It's a war that's both over and not over at the same time.
22:22It's a war that's both very complete and just beginning.
22:29A classic case of Donald Trump boasting his military's progress while keeping options open.
22:38A week ago, Trump said the war will continue for four to five weeks.
22:45We have the strongest and most powerful by far military in the world and we will easily prevail.
22:54We're already substantially ahead of our time projections, but whatever the time is, it's okay.
23:02Whatever it takes, we will always, and we have right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks.
23:10But we have capability to go far longer than that.
23:15We'll do it.
23:16It's been one week since then and Trump now says they are ahead of the initial timeline and the war
23:22will end very soon.
23:25We're winning very decisively.
23:29We're way ahead of schedule.
23:33Our military is the greatest in the world with the greatest equipment and the greatest people in the world.
23:38Nobody's ever seen anything like it.
23:40If we did not hit them, they were going to take over the Middle East.
23:44So we stopped it with good timing and we're very proud to be involved in this and it's going to
23:50be ended soon.
23:52But before the world could breathe a sigh of relief, Trump walked back on his comments, saying while he could
23:59call it an end, he is going to go further.
24:02We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it, or we could
24:09go further and we're going to go further.
24:13Just days ago, Trump said that he would not stop the war until Iran's unconditional surrender.
24:20Tehran has outrightly rejected that option time and again.
24:23But with global oil supply and shipping traffic on the line, it appears Trump has had to change strategy.
24:31He has signaled an end to the war.
24:33But to maintain pressure on Tehran at the same time, Trump opted for what he knows best.
24:38Another threat.
24:39To hit Iran 20 times harder if it stops oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
24:47Trump's mixed messaging came on the back of his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who offered proposals for a
24:53quick settlement to the war.
25:01From the very beginning of this story, before the military phase began, President Putin proposed options for our mediation and
25:08good offices that could help reduce tensions.
25:11Many of these proposals are still on the table.
25:17Trump said after the call that Putin wanted to and could be helpful in ending the war.
25:22But the question is, is the United States willing to accept that help?
25:27Trump's flip-flops have put the war's timeline, nature, objectives and consequences all hanging in the balance.
25:34And the world has been left scrambling for signs of when this massive military operation could end.
25:53And joining me now to make sense of these developments is Left-N-General D.P. Pandey, former Director-General
25:59of India's Territorial Army and Kashmir Co-Commander.
26:02Also with me is Ambassador Michael Herzog, former Israeli Ambassador to the United States.
26:07Ambassador Herzog, welcome. Let me begin by asking you, is this war going as per plan or is Iran fighting
26:15back better than expected?
26:19No, it is going as planned. I think there's overwhelming force, a combined American-Israeli force that overwhelms the Iranians.
26:28And the first goal is to destroy their strategic capabilities, the nuclear capabilities, the ballistic missile capabilities, the Iranian Navy,
26:40their air defense.
26:42That is going according to the plan.
26:45I continue sitting in Tel Aviv.
26:46I think their ability to retaliate with missiles has gone down by the day because both our air forces are
26:55taking out their launchers and their missiles and their production sites.
26:59So in terms of destroying their strategic capabilities, I think this is going as planned.
27:07But the other set of goals that has to do with establishing the conditions for a future regime change, that's
27:14more amorphous.
27:15And I think it's premature to tell.
27:18But this would indicate, General Pandey, that this war could go on endlessly.
27:22And the manner in which Iran continues to use its drones and missiles to target Gulf countries and assets in
27:30Gulf countries.
27:31There's fear, there's apprehension, global economies in tailspin.
27:35So for Israel and the U.S. fight, it's the world that's paying a very heavy cost already.
27:42First of all, the biggest cost is on Iran because every day that goes by dismantles their capabilities.
27:50They have tried to show that this is a regional war by striking numerous Arab countries, civilian targets, energy infrastructure,
28:00and so on.
28:01I think they made a mistake because they alienated all of those actors and turned them against them.
28:08There is, of course, a cost in terms of oil prices, the fact that the Strait of Hormones are effectively
28:19closed.
28:20But I believe that the U.S. is trying to come up with several answers.
28:26One of them is to offer insurance for shipping companies.
28:31The other one is to say that the U.S. Navy may accompany ships in the Straits.
28:39The third is to destroy the Iranian Navy, even though that's insufficient.
28:44And the fourth is to generate more energy into the international markets, including, I understand, allowing Indian refineries to buy
28:58for once Russian oil.
29:01But all of these will take time.
29:04In the meantime, we've seen oil prices.
29:08But I think if you look at the overall balance, every day that goes by, weekends, Iran.
29:15But we do have to think about the day after and what would be the exit strategy.
29:20And there's one person who will ultimately decide.
29:23That's President Trump.
29:24Okay. Stay with me for a moment, Ambassador.
29:27Let me bring in General Pande into this conversation.
29:29General Pande, is that also your reading?
29:33Or is Iran doing better than what was initially anticipated, General Pande?
29:38And if Iran can stay on in this battle longer, the longer Iran can stay, use those missiles to target
29:46either Israel or American interests or Gulf countries,
29:49it just would indicate that the world is a very dangerous place, Iran is able to stand up to perhaps
29:56the most powerful forces in the world.
30:00So, Gaurav, thank you for having me over for your show.
30:04Firstly, let's be clear that when people, political people come to the forum to talk and on to the media,
30:14they will not share the entire plan.
30:17I will agree with what Trump is saying, because we can give a different spin for a conversation.
30:23But the bottom line is, let's say there are three major war games.
30:26And let's look at it backwards, in the reverse order.
30:30The third most very, very important was taking out the ballistic missile system and the capacity to hit by Iran,
30:37to hit Saudis, Gulf countries.
30:40And of course, I will not talk of American bases because American bases are within those, in these areas.
30:46So, they may not be able to take out 100%.
30:50But if they are able to degrade to a great extent, I think that's a great achievement.
30:54Even, and very clear, in the last about 10 days, we have seen that the number of assaults and waves
31:01are going from the Iranian side has started reducing.
31:05While the air defense capacities have also reduced on the other side.
31:08But the entire Iran is under domination of the American forces in terms of air operation, carrying out strike without
31:17any challenges.
31:18Second, very, very important was taking out the nuclear capability of existing, not existing.
31:24But I believe totally, because having seen the conversation coming out from Iran, and also from other people,
31:31it was, Iran had the capacity in a couple of more months to be able to actually enrich uranium.
31:38Weaponizing may have taken a little bit more time, maybe.
31:41But definitely, they were quite on this thing.
31:45So, you wait for another year or two years to do this.
31:48The pain point is the same for the region and for the world.
31:52So, maybe Trump and Israel have taken a call to carry out this now, which is much more faster and
31:57better.
31:58The third is about regime change.
32:00What is regime change?
32:02Killing or taking out top 10 leaders, including supreme leader, is not regime change, right?
32:10And I think Les Grant is right with the kind of intelligence they have had and sensibility in the strategic
32:17community of Americans
32:18to know what the meaning of regime change.
32:21As long as regime is not able to operate with the impunity and giving the psychological or strategic orientation and
32:29direction,
32:29I think it is okay.
32:31But yet, the last one I will just say about Hormuz, and this was my view from the start,
32:37that as the time will fly, you will find that Hormuz will start flowing oil.
32:43The only challenge about influence.
32:45There has been instances before as well, they can be moved.
32:50The tankers can start moving once the Iranian navy goes out.
32:54But, you know, to say 100% security and safety for the tankers going on, I think that will be
33:01quite silly.
33:02Because, you know, Houthis and all have been doing all the strike.
33:05But I must give one credit to the Israelis or the Americans, that the third, that the Triple H,
33:13we were thinking, which was going to go berserk, Hamas has been subdued to great extent.
33:19Esbola's leadership has been taken out three times over.
33:23The capacity to hit with the rockets is diminishing by the day with Lebanon actually taking control.
33:28And Houthis, which were my actually most important body, has been, yeah, they have been bought off.
33:37I think somewhere this radical element has been bought off by the Americans or by somebody, right,
33:44that they have just not shown hand for the support of Iran.
33:48So look at the three edges out.
33:49But yet to say that a terror strike, we may do anything to Pakistan,
33:54but a terror strike from Pakistan just cannot be closed.
33:57So similarly, a surviving element of Iran will always remain to persist,
34:02to carry out some activity, but credible military force application may not happen.
34:08That's a good point that you make.
34:09And let me bring in Ambassador Herzog back into this conversation.
34:12Ambassador, Iran's regime change, has Israel war-gamed it effectively?
34:20Because we were told Mossad is very well entrenched on ground.
34:24The moment Ayatollah is decapitated or assassinated, as Iran puts it,
34:30thousands and thousands of people will take to the streets, not just in Tehran, but across the country.
34:35That hasn't happened.
34:36Did Israel go wrong there, sir?
34:40So first, let me clarify that regime change was never defined as a formal goal of this war,
34:47neither by the Israeli government nor by the U.S. government.
34:51What our leadership said is that we want first and foremost to destroy their strategic capabilities
34:57that could threaten us and the region, and then create the conditions for a regime change in the future,
35:05which has to be carried out by the Iranian people.
35:07It cannot be carried out from the outside or through air raids and the likes.
35:13Now, for that to happen, I think the regime has to be significantly weakened,
35:18especially the repressive network of the regime that butchered their own people.
35:23And you have to see cracks in the regime itself, defections, disobeyance and all that.
35:31We have not seen much of that.
35:35I'm not very much impressed by talk about, you know,
35:38armed minorities like the Kurds carrying out like a revolution.
35:44I don't think this is realistic, and I don't think they are strong enough.
35:48To me, the real game changer might occur if we see units from the regular army,
35:55different than the revolutionary guards, which are more ideological.
36:00If we see units from the regular army defecting and turning their guards against the regime,
36:05then we can assess that.
36:08But, you know, there is a paradox here in the picture,
36:10because both President Trump and the Israeli Prime Minister called on the Iranian people
36:16to take to the streets, but that's unlikely to happen as long as the war goes on,
36:21as long as it's bombing.
36:24So, for us to know if the Iranian people are going out to the street,
36:28the war has to stop first.
36:30So, Ambassador, before I bring in the general once again,
36:34tell me this, do the Americans have the stomach for a long, drawn-out affair,
36:40and how long would an affair, you know, how long drawn-out would this affair be,
36:45given the kind of intense bombing that's on, that's costing $1 billion a day for the Americans,
36:50a couple of billion dollars a week for the Israelis, how long will this continue?
36:56So, that's an excellent question that everybody is asking,
36:59and my recommendation is to focus less on what Trump says,
37:04because he has mixed messages, and focus more on his considerations.
37:09So, on the one hand, and this is what I hear from my conversations with people in the administration,
37:15they are saying, you know, we have amassed tremendous forces and military capabilities in the region,
37:21so we want to maximize the achievement, and that requires some time.
37:26You can't just do it overnight.
37:28If you really want to destroy their strategic capabilities, it takes time.
37:33And every day that goes by, Iran weakens, and their capacity to retaliate is weak.
37:40And as I said, we see it in the amount of missiles they fire at us.
37:45On the other hand, there are considerations against a long war.
37:51It's very unpopular in the United States.
37:53It's a war of choice, and several Americans were already killed in action,
37:59and most importantly, the cost of oil and the impact on the international economy.
38:06And this is a year of midterm elections in the United States.
38:10Gas prices have already sold in the United States, and this calls for an early exit.
38:16So, if I sum up all of these considerations, I don't expect Trump to kind of opt out in the
38:23next very few days.
38:25But I don't think he will exceed the framework that he himself outlined of a few weeks.
38:31So, I would give it maybe one, two weeks before he opts out.
38:36So, another two weeks, because last time in 2025, the war lasted 12 days.
38:41It achieved limited, you know, returns or gains.
38:45This time, it's already day 11.
38:47And general, before I come to you, I want to talk about Iran's capabilities as on date.
38:53I also want to talk about the LED air defense system for the protection of Israel.
38:59So, Iran has threatened to target Israel with newer generation missiles, including hypersonic missiles,
39:04some that can travel 14 times the speed of sound.
39:08The United States and Israel have a multi-tiered grid in place for the protection of Israel
39:14from incoming Iranian missiles, rockets and drones.
39:17So, as the crow flies, let's take a look at that map.
39:20As the crow flies, the distance between Tehran and Tel Aviv is approximately 1,600 kilometers,
39:281,592 kilometers to be precise.
39:32Iran has several ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, even hypersonic missiles
39:37capable of hitting targets more than 2,000 kilometers away.
39:40So, every bit of Israel is within the reach of Iranian missiles.
39:46The United States has multiple bases across this region,
39:50but just look at the map there.
39:53Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan and then Israel.
39:58Virtually everywhere, the U.S. has bases in between.
40:02The satellites, the drones, the reconnaissance aircraft and the radars.
40:08They can triangulate the exact location the moment a missile is fired from Iran
40:12or in case of satellites, they can just see, monitor almost constantly.
40:17The radars track the flight of the missile.
40:20The U.S. and Israel have a command and control center that identify the incoming threat.
40:25Usually, it's a barrage of missiles, rockets and drones.
40:29It's to saturate the air defense system.
40:32But then, they're also using artificial intelligence from what sources tell India today
40:36to identify the immediate threat and the threats that will fall harmlessly in open areas
40:43or ones that will take down vital assets or vital points.
40:47The U.S. has its Patriot missile batteries deployed.
40:50Take, for example, at the N al-Assad base in Iraq.
40:53The U.S. also has both the Patriot and the THAAD or the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missiles.
40:59Their batteries are there in Jordan's Muafik Sati Air Base, for example.
41:04The same base in Jordan also has the F-15 Striking Eagle Squadron.
41:08And these F-15s are in an air defense role.
41:13Now, should the incoming threat not be taken down at various levels,
41:17either by Jordan or by Iraq or by Saudi Arabia,
41:21the U.S. has an aircraft carrier strike group deployed in the Mediterranean Sea
41:26to take down any incoming threat.
41:28Because the aircraft carrier strike group has its own anti-missile defense system.
41:32It can spot missiles from the moment they are launched and decide which missile is to be taken down.
41:38Israel has its own multi-tiered air defense system.
41:42From the Iron Dome to the David Sling to Patriot and THAAD systems,
41:46all geared to take down incoming missiles at different altitudes and at different distances.
41:51The Iron Dome, for example, is designed for point defense.
41:55It can take down even an incoming artillery, you know, barrage or short-range rockets between 30 and 70 kilometers
42:03away.
42:03The THAAD supplied by Pentagon, that area defense system can intercept an incoming missile
42:10outside the atmosphere, actually, up to 200 kilometers.
42:13The David Sling, again, it's a middle-tier Israeli missile defense shield that can intercept a cruise missile
42:20and, of course, short-range ballistic missiles up to 300 kilometers.
42:24Then you also have the Arrow system, the Arrow 3.
42:26They can target medium-range ballistic missiles and they can go up to 2,400 kilometers, take down the threat
42:32at source.
42:33Both the US and Israel have their fighter jets in the air to take down an incoming threat should it
42:40dodge this multi-tiered system.
42:42And given the speed of a hypersonic missile, the Iranian strategy is to saturate the skies with drones, with rockets,
42:49with missiles,
42:50so that the system gets overwhelmed.
42:53And there have been instances that targets have been hit.
42:57And I want to bring in General Pandey on this.
42:59General, Israel may have the best air defense system and US may support it.
43:04Somewhere down the line, does Iran still have the capability?
43:08And especially when Iran is threatening that it will now hit with newer generation missiles, with one-ton payload and
43:13more,
43:14is the threat only increasing now?
43:18Yeah, so, you know, any system, any tech, HR system can be always overwhelmed.
43:26It's just about design effort and how to get under the tech.
43:31Now, Harput Sonis have got the speed and the range to reach out and hit out in case.
43:36So, you know, everybody may have layered, in case all these layers work, these strikes which have been landing into
43:42Israel and to the bases would have not done so.
43:46And they have been able to achieve.
43:48But aim is, right now, Gaurav, I think it's very important that you carry out also an analysis that while
43:55there is a billion-dollar expenditure for the US government,
43:59how much do they have as a backup?
44:02Because right now, they have not even spent a percentage of their actual kitty into this operation.
44:08Now, let's go to the Iranian side.
44:11How much expenditure is Iranians taking in terms of damage and even firing and hypersonic?
44:16Every hypersonic missile or a ballistic missile which is fired has got a cost which has to come about.
44:23And how much empowered in terms of current terms is Iranians.
44:28So, how many can you fire?
44:29When you carry out these parameter checks and every hypersonic missile must have an equitable damage requirement to be done.
44:38So, you know, they may fire at an establishment, let's say, an air base.
44:42It may land at an air base that has got no value.
44:45It may hit an oil depot.
44:47When you say oil depot, oil depots have got storage tanks.
44:51And they may hit one storage tank.
44:54How much is the damage which is going to be out and not be contained?
44:58So, the challenge of a hypersonic and expensive missile to travel 1,600 kilometers where it can be intercepted.
45:05The issue is that how many will actually land and what are the consequences that will happen.
45:09When you carry out these spins to the result ratio, you look at the cost.
45:16You know, they have 5,000 of missiles.
45:18But they have only 8 servicemen of the US.
45:23Maybe more have lost life, right?
45:25Which is not retrievable.
45:26But everything which America has spent in terms of billions of dollars has got a possibility of retrieving.
45:32That's a good point you made.
45:33But since you mentioned some of the systems that are being used, Iran is now deploying cluster warheads.
45:40And I want to for a moment also focus on the newer missiles that Iran is using.
45:48Iran is now deploying cluster warhead missiles in its attack on Israel.
45:52Now, that's a tactic that various defense analysts argue.
45:56Is designed not just to overwhelm the air defense systems of Israel, but also cause maximum damage.
46:02And for a sustained period of time.
46:04Because Iran has been using these warheads since the 28th of February, including various variants of the Khurram Sheher ballistic
46:12missile, the range of nearly 2,000 kilometers.
46:14These missiles are designed to break open mid-air and release up to 80 bomblets, 80 smaller bomblets, about 20
46:23kilograms each.
46:24And then they scatter across a wide area, sometimes cover between 15 to 20 kilometers.
46:29Instead of tracking a single incoming missile, then the air defense system is suddenly facing about dozens of falling targets
46:38at one go.
46:39And those targets remain alive for a considerable period of time.
46:42It can explode even much later.
46:44So, it has the potential not just to overwhelm the iron dome, but each bomblet carries between 7 kilograms to
46:5210 kilograms of explosives.
46:53They can spread damage across a wider area.
46:57Some of these submunitions can travel at extremely high speed.
47:00Some of these cluster bombs and especially the airburst version, when it explodes in the air and your shrapnel that
47:09falls to the ground with a great velocity, it can cause massive, massive damage on ground.
47:15And I want to bring in Ambassador Herzog into this conversation once again.
47:19Ambassador, is this the biggest threat that Israel faces right now?
47:24The newer age munitions, the sub-munitions, the cluster of bombs that Iran is using?
47:32First, let me say that we might hear the sirens any moment.
47:35If that happens, I will have to go to the bomb shelter.
47:38Stay safe, sir.
47:39But in any case, let me add to your excellent summary of the air defense systems that we and the
47:46Americans have.
47:46If you look at the Iranian arsenal, as the war started, our intelligence assessed that they had around 2,000
47:57ballistic missiles with a range to Israel and several hundred launchers, mobile launchers and others.
48:06As of today, I understand that over 80% of them were degraded, taken out by American-Israeli air forces,
48:16and their ability to use those missiles has gone down considerably and will continue to go down on top of
48:26that.
48:26And this is a big difference from the 12-day war, which you mentioned.
48:30This time, Israel and the Americans are going after their industrial bases, where they produced those missiles.
48:39So they cannot reconstitute this arsenal in a very fast way after the war.
48:49Now, it's different when you talk about the Gulf states, because there the range is much closer.
48:55It's 300 to 500 kilometers.
48:58And there, the Iranians have a much bigger arsenal, several thousand of them.
49:03And those countries do not have an air defense system capable as the one that we have.
49:10And they are basically reliant on the Americans.
49:14Now, you asked about those...
49:15And that's the question.
49:15Have the Americans left partners in the Gulf region down?
49:19And perhaps, Ambassador, that's a question that we leave for another day.
49:22And I hope you join me, because I've run out of time on this part of the show.
49:26I have to slip into a quick break here.
49:28I want to thank both my guests on the other side.
49:30The West Asia war that's actually hitting South Asia's kitchens.
49:34How?
49:35We'll tell you on the other side of a quick break.
49:37Stay with us.
49:43So, the West Asia conflict has now triggered a serious LPG crisis across South Asia.
49:49Gas and fuel.
49:50And not just in India.
49:52The situation in Bangladesh.
49:54The situation in Pakistan.
49:55There is a crisis.
49:57Energy routes are impacted.
49:59Supply chain is hit.
50:01India, however, appears to be relatively insulated, at least for now.
50:07Government sources say LPG stocks remain comfortable.
50:10Supplies are being replenished regularly to prevent any immediate shortage, especially to households.
50:16But the situation is far more severe in our neighbourhood.
50:19Take, for example, Pakistan.
50:21Take, for example, Bangladesh.
50:22Pakistan is facing a massive spike in fuel prices, in LPG prices and supply disruptions.
50:29There are fears of shortages in several cities.
50:32In Bangladesh, the conflict has pushed up import costs.
50:36Supplies are being tightened.
50:37Now, there are concerns over cooking gas availability for millions of households in Bangladesh.
50:42Now, with the state of Hormuz under threat, energy markets under pressure,
50:46experts warn LPG crunch across the region perhaps could worsen in the coming days.
50:53And we'll be tracking that story closely.
51:00Welcome back.
51:01Iran's President Masood Prasashqian has just issued a statement.
51:05And he's hit out at those waging war against Iran.
51:09He says adversities who believe they can destroy the country are entertaining an illusion.
51:15In a social media post, he says, and I quote, Iran is the heir to a civilisation at least 6
51:21,000 years old.
51:22Through the trials of history, no power has ever succeeded in erasing Iran's name.
51:29Anyone who entertains this illusion of destroying Iran knows nothing of Iran's history.
51:36Aggressors have come.
51:38Aggressors have gone.
51:39Iran has endured.
51:41U.S. Iranian officials say at this point of time that it is Tehran that will determine how long this
51:51war lasts.
51:52They're also saying Iran's army is now ready for a war of attrition.
51:57And this could lead to a long-term confrontation.
52:00U.S.-Israeli strikes have continued across the country in recent hours.
52:04The World Health Organization has warned that the black rain and toxic compounds in the air in Iran's air
52:11after these attacks on oil facilities as part of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign
52:16could cause severe health issues for those living in and around Tehran.
52:23So the situation is very dire.
52:26God forbid it could turn worse in the hours and days ahead.
52:30And that's the story we'll be tracking very closely.
52:33That is all I have for you on India first this evening.
52:35Many thanks for watching.
52:36News and updates continue on India today.
52:38Stay with us.
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