00:00Iran is striking a defiant tone and continuing retaliatory attacks across the Gulf on U.S. basis.
00:08Now, joining me on the set right now is Hafiz Marzouki on the latest developments and what does this escalation
00:14mean for the region?
00:15So we are seeing that the defiance from the Iranian regime, we have just entered the third day of the
00:20conflict.
00:21Is this something that Washington had maybe underestimated and will this turn out to be a more prolonged conflict?
00:26All the signals point to a sustained defiance from the Iranian regime.
00:32But I think the question now is for how long?
00:35Of course, you know, it's clear message from Tehran is that they will not stop until all the aggressions towards
00:41them stop.
00:43Until then, they will continue.
00:44There are drone strikes against Israel as well as U.S.-based bases in the Gulf.
00:50Of course, Donald Trump has kind of framed it as going against or preventing a nuclear threat.
00:56But we can see based on reports that it's actually, you know, aimed at, you know, affecting regime change.
01:03Now, our colleague, Fei Kwan, has actually spoken to an analyst, Dr. Romina Abdul-Razzaq,
01:07to actually unpack what is Trump's endgame when it comes to this military operation against Iran.
01:13It's hard to sort of say exactly what Washington's objectives are.
01:18With Venezuela, it was very clear.
01:20They had one objective, and that was to remove the president and form an interim government quickly that was a
01:26pro-America.
01:27And, of course, get this kind of weird oil consortium together to secure the oil, essentially.
01:33With Iran, the objectives are a bit opaque.
01:36And it's a bit hard because the objectives of the U.S. is conflated with the objectives of Israel.
01:41So, it's a bit harder to kind of understand that, firstly.
01:46And Trump, you know, he said that he wanted to take out the supreme leader, take out Iran's top leaders,
01:51and they've done that.
01:52At the same time, they're continuing to attack Iran, and Iran has retaliated.
01:59So, the objectives have become even more widespread.
02:02The U.S. has always wanted to ensure that Iran doesn't have a nuclear program.
02:07But the nuclear program on Iran's side has always been for civilian uses, or so they say it.
02:13So, even on the negotiating table, it's very hard to say what exactly they want,
02:18because it almost seems like the nuclear deal is not even the issue anymore.
02:21It's about government in Iran.
02:23And the regime is not going to change, even if America wants that.
02:27And I think America realizes that.
02:32So, right now, there is what we see as a power vacuum in Iran with Ali Khamenei gone.
02:38But I think the question right now also is who appears to be taking charge next?
02:46And how would this person or this new regime respond to the attacks by U.S. and Israel?
02:51So, the first part, right now, you can see that, you know, Iran is being led by the Interim Leadership
02:56Council.
02:56Of course, there's three members in the Leadership Council.
03:00The first is, of course, the President, Masud Bezashkian.
03:03And the other two is that one is a member of a Guardian Council, can look at it as sort
03:07of a...
03:07If it was an equivalent to China, China's Politburo, he sits on the Council, Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi.
03:14And, of course, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Golub Hussein Mohsen, the AJ.
03:19So, this three person is basically running the show for Iran.
03:23But as far as, you know, the decision-making, I think we can hear two voices distinct in tone.
03:32One is probably a hardline approach of not negotiating with the U.S.
03:36The other is probably more reconciliatory, you know, willing to, you know, go to the tables.
03:41Of course, we heard, you know, earlier the Iran Security Chief, basically Ali Larijani, who is more of a hardliner,
03:48said clearly, you know, no outright negotiations.
03:50And there's another camp, you know, or rather another voice, for example, the Foreign Minister, Abbas Arakji, who said they
03:57are prepared to go to the table to negotiate, you know, an end to this conflict.
04:02And the interesting thing, Cynthia, is actually, if you were to look at not just the recent attack, but also
04:07maybe the previous attack in June, both actually happened during nuclear negotiations.
04:13Right. So, I think both sides probably looking at it and thinking, you know, thinking, either side will be thinking
04:21about whether it's in good faith when each time they return to the negotiation table.
04:26And in fact, Faye also spoke to Dr. Rowena and she'll explore this dynamic further.
04:38The sudden change and shift in leadership also speaks of how ununited Iran is with regards to negotiating, with regards
04:47with reaching a deal with the US.
04:49And so, I think we're going to see those tensions actually emerge over the next days within Iran, about those
04:57who want to negotiate and those who don't want to negotiate.
05:00I think it will all go down to the current interim leadership that has taken the place of Khamenei's absence.
05:09So, we're going to see which side is going to win out in a way.
05:15Arakji is quite, he has quite a good standing and there are quite a lot within the Iranian government, especially
05:22within the Guardian Council, within the clerical elite, political elite who are open to negotiating.
05:28So, I don't, I think it's not unlikely that negotiations will continue.
05:34Also, we have to understand, we also have to remember that certain Gulf states, especially Oman and Qatar, despite being
05:40attacked themselves, are also open to negotiating.
05:43So, I think it's very important for Oman and Qatar especially to push for negotiations and to push for a
05:48diplomatic solution.
05:49They have been successful in the past and if they are willing to look past Iran's retaliation in the Gulf,
05:57we can see negotiations happening.
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