00:00Joining us now from the U.S. is Ambassador John Bolton. He is the former U.S. Ambassador to the
00:06U.N. and a former U.S. National Security Advisor to President Trump.
00:11Ambassador Bolton, thank you for joining us on ILTV.
00:14Glad to be with you. Thanks for having me.
00:17First, let me ask you, we have these crucial talks underway in Geneva.
00:20Now, in the past, you've been skeptical or you've raised doubts about President Trump's willingness to launch a major, let's
00:30say, sufficient, extensive strike against Iran.
00:34What's your assessment based on what we know now about that possibility?
00:40Well, I don't think he's made up his mind for certain about what could happen.
00:45I think he, as in almost everything else, he longs for a deal with Iran, even though it's perfectly clear
00:54that whatever deal would be acceptable to Iran should not be acceptable to us.
00:59I don't think he has really decided on what his military strategy is because he can't decide what his objective
01:07is.
01:07I mean, I can tell you what I think the objective should be.
01:10It should be regime change.
01:11But and he has said in this term he favors regime change.
01:15That's a major shift from his first term.
01:18But whether he'll actually do it when it comes right down to the decision day, I don't I don't think
01:24we have any clue at this point.
01:26Ambassador Bolton, you've been an advocate of a regime change.
01:28What do you say against those voices which have grown, for example, in the Republican Party and which we know
01:34are in the present Trump administration?
01:37Vice President Vance, among them, who simply advocate against it, say that's the business of the Iranians and the potential
01:43consequences could be harmful to the U.S.
01:47Well, I think Iranian nuclear weapons falling on the United States would be our business.
01:51I think Iran's longstanding rule as the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism is a concern for us.
02:00I think the efforts by the Iranian regime to assassinate Americans and Iranians in the U.S.
02:07and in Europe, its threat to our ally Israel, our friends in the Gulf Arab countries and its general threat
02:16as a nuclear proliferator amply make it America's business.
02:20The fact is, peace and security in the Middle East is a vital American interest.
02:26And there will be no permanent peace and security in the Middle East until the regime of the Ayatollahs is
02:31overthrown.
02:31So it's not a case of negotiating with them to achieve behavioral change.
02:37They're not going to change.
02:38There's no evidence that in the last 30 years Iran has ever wavered from its strategic objective of getting nuclear
02:45weapons.
02:46And that applies today in full force.
02:49Right. Ambassador Bolton, of course, it's not just a question of agreement or a military action.
02:54There is the question of what kind of agreement.
02:56There are those who are saying that an agreement may be limited to the nuclear issue.
03:01Of course, here in Israel, there is a feeling that if it doesn't cover such issues as the ballistic missile
03:06program, Iranian support for proxies, that won't be sufficient to stem the Iranian threat.
03:12What's your view?
03:14Sure.
03:15Well, that's one of the reasons the 2015 nuclear deal was unsatisfactory.
03:19It doesn't deal with the overall Iranian threat.
03:22But to eliminate that threat, basically, the regime has to say, well, you know, that ideology that carried us into
03:29power in 1979, we're prepared to abandon that.
03:32The evidence is not only that in all the years since then, 47 years almost, not only have they not
03:39moderated in their views,
03:41every indication is that the younger generation of regimes supporting Ayatollahs is even more extreme.
03:47So the prospects are that the Iranian threat gets worse, not better, not more moderate as time goes on.
03:55I think the regime at this very moment is at the weakest point it's been since it took power in
04:001979.
04:02So if there were ever an opportunity for the use of military force, not with boots on the ground,
04:08but military force to destabilize the regime itself and working with the opposition to bring it down, I think this
04:15is it.
04:16Right. And again, as you mentioned, regime change.
04:19But what what kind of change?
04:21We know how deeply entrenched this regime is.
04:24It's a different model, for example, from the Venezuela situation.
04:27Do you believe that, for example, within the Iranian military,
04:31there are elements that are willing to take over and pursue a more moderate course?
04:35What about those Iranian people that really want to see a total change?
04:40And perhaps, for example, the return of the Shah's son is some kind of transitional figure.
04:46Well, I don't I don't think Venezuela is a model because I don't think the regime change in Venezuela is
04:51complete.
04:51We've taken out the face of the regime.
04:54But the Chavistas who supported him are still in charge.
04:58But in the case of Iran, I think the regime is is is destabilizing inside.
05:06I think officers, commanders in the regular military, not the Revolutionary Guard, but the regular military are people who could
05:14be persuaded to come over to the opposition.
05:17And I think even within the Revolutionary Guard, if if enough of them begin to understand that this regime is
05:23going to fall, it's amazing.
05:25I think how many of them will come to the conclusion they want to end up on the right side.
05:29So it may be for opportunistic reasons.
05:31It may be for all kinds of reasons.
05:33But if we can show, as I think Israel and the United States did during the 12 day war, that
05:40the regime cannot protect itself, then then it becomes just a matter of time when it falls.
05:45And I'm not saying it will be without considerable turmoil.
05:50I'm sure there are some elements in the Revolutionary Guard that will want to continue and are prepared to fight
05:56for it.
05:56But, you know, this is this is the price you have to pay if you want to live in a
06:00decent country rather than under this theocratic military dictatorship.
06:05And let me ask you if this should be an extended military situation, Ambassador Baldwin, do you think they're supporting
06:10the American public to it?
06:11You heard the President Trump the other day.
06:13Did he make a sufficient case to the American public to gain that support?
06:19Well, I don't think he's done it yet, that's for sure.
06:21And I think it's unfortunately characteristic of Trump.
06:25He doesn't think in strategic terms politically or internationally.
06:29And and that could be a problem.
06:31But I think if if he puts his mind to it and doesn't get his attention diverted by other things,
06:38there's a very strong case to be made and it needs to be made.
06:41All right. All right.
06:42You have certainly made that case for several years now.
06:46And we'll see if what happens in the coming days.
06:49Ambassador John Bolton, thank you for joining us on ILTV.
06:53Thank you for having me.
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