00:00France 24's international affairs commentator Douglas Herbert is with me. Hi, Doug.
00:05How are you?
00:05I'm good. How are you doing?
00:07What you're going to tell us about...
00:09Another furious news cycle.
00:11Yes, because you're going to be talking about the situation in Pakistan.
00:14And these types of tensions have been building up for quite some time now, haven't they?
00:17Absolutely. Look, the headline didn't come out of nowhere.
00:20Yes, Pakistan's calling this, you know, sort of an open war quote right now.
00:25The reality is, is we have been seeing, you know, euphemistically regional tensions between these countries.
00:31But, you know, just last autumn you had the same Pakistani defense minister basically saying that the two countries were
00:38in a state of war.
00:39And the basic pattern has been this, and it's been over many years.
00:42Pakistan has accused basically Afghanistan's Taliban government, remember the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021,
00:49has accused the government there in Kabul of harboring militant groups.
00:55And let's be more specific, not just any militant group, but specifically a group called the Pakistani Taliban.
01:01So, Tariq-e-Taliban Pakistan.
01:04And this is a group that's basically composed of the elements that way back, way, way, way back after the
01:10September 11th attacks in 2001,
01:12had fled to the border regions near, on the border with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
01:17They formed a bunch of militant groups, formed this loose sort of alliance that's become sort of known as the
01:22Pakistan Taliban.
01:23In the past year, what I mean really last year, there were over 600, Pakistan says,
01:29over 600 attacks either claimed by or by groups affiliated with the so-called Pakistan Taliban in Pakistan itself.
01:39So, Afghanistan-based militants, according to the Pakistan government, directly posing a threat to Pakistan's security personnel.
01:48So, last October, last November, I'm sorry, in one of the most prominent high-profile attacks,
01:53because many of these attacks are in the border provinces, the regions bordering Afghanistan,
01:57but one of them was right in Islamabad, a suicide attack right outside a district court in the Pakistani capital
02:04of Islamabad,
02:05in which 12 people were killed. That's what prompted the state of war comments.
02:09And it also drew the world's attention to these ongoing sort of standoffs.
02:15So, you have this sort of pattern, recurring pattern, where you have these attacks,
02:19Pakistan accusing Afghan-based militants under the umbrella of the Pakistan Taliban,
02:24attacking on Pakistani soil, usually in the border areas, but sometimes more high-profile spectacular types of attacks, as in
02:32Islamabad.
02:32And then you have the retaliation from the Pakistani government, and it all becomes extremely volatile.
02:38It all adds up to, quote, regional tensions or war, even if it's sort of, like I said, ongoing for
02:44decades.
02:44And I'll just note that, originally, Pakistan actually had pretty friendly relations with the Taliban for many, many years going
02:50way back,
02:51but obviously that's changed radically.
02:52The Afghan Taliban government denies that it is openly supporting the so-called Pakistan Taliban on its soil
03:00and giving it weapons as well, denying that.
03:02Well, Doug, the UN has published a report recently on the situation.
03:07Tell us what they found.
03:08Yeah, they found, basically, what they found sort of conforms more with the narrative coming out of Islamabad in Pakistan
03:14than the denial from the Afghans.
03:16This is a report issued by the UN earlier this month.
03:19And basically what they said is, A, that, yes, there's a permissive environment in Afghanistan for these militant groups,
03:25i.e., the so-called Tariki Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban,
03:29that no member state in the UN really believes, Afghanistan's claim, that there are no terror groups operating there,
03:37and that the so-called Pakistani Taliban, according to the report, is quote given,
03:41and I'm quote reading from the report, given greater liberty and support.
03:46There's also other groups there.
03:47Al Qaeda, according to the UN, also enjoys Taliban patronage,
03:52that is patronage from the Afghan Taliban government based in Kabul.
03:55And the Taliban are targeting also the Islamic State group in Afghanistan more aggressively than they are the Pakistani Taliban.
04:03So, once again, Pakistani Taliban, the one that Pakistan accuses for all of these, most of these security attacks,
04:10are getting light-handed at treatment, according to the UN report, from the Afghan government, the Afghan Taliban government.
04:16I know it gets confusing, but the basic thing to remember here is that the Taliban government in Afghanistan
04:22is distinct from the separate group, the Pakistani Taliban, that the Afghan government in Kabul is trying to dissociate itself
04:30from,
04:31while the UN is saying, nice try Taliban in Afghanistan.
04:35Your government is, whether you want to deny it or not, you are effectively lending a lot of patronage and
04:41support.
04:41You are effectively harboring this group, which is launching these attacks.
04:45Well, finally, Doug, let's look at the attempts to actually bring peace between these two sides.
04:50There have been negotiations. How are they working out?
04:52They're not. Well, at least so far, right? There was Turkey and Qatar.
04:57Really, Qatar-led peace negotiations last October, right?
05:03Before this November suicide attack I talked about in Islamabad.
05:07They've been faltering, but worse.
05:09Obviously, right now, there's no real ceasefire, right?
05:12As of this morning, the Pakistani government saying, quote, open war between the two countries.
05:17So they're not going well, but there's a lot of regional countries looking on with a lot of nail-biting,
05:22you know, worries and anxiety.
05:24Saudi Arabia is one of the big regional powers.
05:27They have been calling officially for de-escalation here.
05:29Russia, the only, I believe the only country right now to officially recognize Afghanistan's Taliban government here.
05:38They are urging restraint.
05:39China is doing what it does almost all the time, quiet mediation saying, quote, its government deeply concerned by these
05:47ongoing events.
05:48So non-interference there, but saying we're concerned, try to work it out.
05:52Iran, meanwhile, it's Ramadan right now, and Iran is offering to mediate during Ramadan.
05:56They don't want to see tensions during what's supposed to be a month of peace and reconciliation.
06:00And like I said, the border clash is further undermining that October ceasefire.
06:06So everyone looking on anxiously.
06:08I believe the UK government has also expressed concern at these tensions.
06:12Like I said, recurring pattern here.
06:14It's not subsiding.
06:15If anything, it shows signs of getting worse in the past 24 to 25 years.
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