00:00When you think about some of the inference in particular that they're starting to penetrate with with NVIDIA, some of
00:05the applications you heard Jensen Wang just being so optimistic there about the agentic AI adoption skyrocketing.
00:12Is that what you're seeing? Is that the advice you're giving to your current companies that you're going to at
00:16the moment?
00:18Well, you asked a good question a second ago, which is at what point is are we so bullish we're
00:22bearish?
00:22And I think the market certainly is excited and continues to be excited about what Jensen is saying and what
00:29NVIDIA is doing for good reason, which is that AI is, you know, we're still in the beginning of realizing
00:35how much value we could create with this unmetered intelligence.
00:40And then the consequence of that is the rest of the market has to figure out what happens if intelligence
00:45is a resource, what happens if intelligence is in fact like water or electricity or the Internet.
00:51And it tracks towards being unmetered. And that's something that macroeconomists and you are going to have a pretty amazing
01:00time over the next, you know, 10, 20 years trying to figure out.
01:04So Trini Research is trying to figure it out right now for two years time.
01:08And it's interesting that as we see NVIDIA rally after its numbers, we're seeing plumbing new debts for CRM for
01:14sales source.
01:14We're now off by 4.5 percent, let's call it. We saw that Snowflake did turn lower.
01:18So, again, this anxiety around the software space being beaten up by a gent to K.I.
01:24How are you seeing considering the book that you've just written?
01:27Are you of this dystopian mindset that in 2028 we'll have extraordinary amounts of unemployment and maybe you and I
01:34will be having more time to write poetry?
01:39Well, one of those things is dystopian. The other is not.
01:41And so, you know, I don't want to flirt too much with the future where we don't work because I
01:47actually do think humans will figure out how to toil.
01:49But I do beg the question in the book, why must we work to be happy?
01:54And is there something else if we can figure out how to feed, clothe and house everyone?
01:58Can we not actually find more time to recreate with friends and families, you know, places of worship, outside dining
02:05room tables?
02:05Is that not maybe why we're here?
02:07But we'll come to that later because the viewers want to ask or want to know the answer to the
02:12question, what's going on in software?
02:13And I think there's a there's a reminder to everyone that the Cetrini Research Report is as good at being
02:19mimetic as it is at sort of providing any real evidence.
02:23There are all sorts of sort of flaws with the paper itself.
02:27But I think what's important is that we are all trying to figure out what's coming.
02:31Derek Thompson wrote something really smart this morning, said no one has any idea what's happening.
02:34And that's half the problem.
02:36These these responses are so these capitulations are so dramatic.
02:40But I will propose this, which is we kept asking if AI was a bubble and maybe we were asking
02:46the wrong question.
02:47Maybe software was the bubble all along.
02:49And I remind all of us that 10 years ago, everyone said these software prices are way too inflated.
02:54How could these companies possibly trade at 30x multiple?
02:57Well, maybe finally it's correcting.
03:00Maybe the value of software is sort of being found out, especially the monolithic pieces of software.
03:05This gets to the idea, though, too.
03:07I mean, some of the pushback that we saw coming out of that report, I mean, they were kind of
03:10counter reports to this idea.
03:12And some of this all by Anthropic itself when it had that web stream.
03:15And I don't know if they were just plain lip service to it.
03:17But the idea that a lot of these tools that they've been ruling out, at least in their view, can
03:22be complementary rather than just kind of the destructive force that the market seems to think that they might be.
03:28Well, again, destructive is a we should define destructive because destructive in this case is destructive to market cap of
03:36a certain segment of companies, but actually quite creative to it or additive to an entire other market segment.
03:46I mean, I think the question is, if AI creates a bunch of value, does it have to borrow some
03:49of that value from other segments?
03:51Yes, probably. But can it also distribute that value to a bunch of other markets?
03:55Definitely. And I think the reminder I have is if value comes out of S&P, it's going to go
04:02or software in particular, it's going to go somewhere else.
04:04And then you have to start asking, where does it go?
04:06And my bet for the last four years has been bio and life sciences, all novel sciences for that matter,
04:11molecular particle material, construction and anything building in the real world, hospitality, entertainment.
04:19Like there's a bunch of knock on positive consequences if we actually reduce the cost of creating software.
04:25And I do think it's important that Anthropic tell people that they are a partner in this game.
04:31Yeah. But the reality, they may not be. I mean, like this may be they may just be taking value
04:36straight out of out of another company's market cap.
04:39Yeah. And they might be. And look, there's a lot of issues in terms of how much we trust what
04:43they say.
04:44But to your point, though, too, I mean, I know we always focus on the downside of AI, the gloom
04:48and doom, you know, that'll all sort of take all our jobs away.
04:50But you mentioned a few of the industries. And just last week, we did a whole big special on a
04:55lot of these trucking companies, logistic companies that have really benefited from AI and machine learning.
05:00And those companies will tell you they've been actually using that type of machine learning now for long before ChatGPT
05:05sort of came into the public consciousness here.
05:07So when we talk about that upside benefit, why don't you think we're hearing, I guess, a little bit more
05:12of a narrative around that or at least a narrative that is cutting through the noise?
05:19Well, when I started writing the book, I basically decided I was going to tell a story about technology on
05:24behalf of an industry that can often struggle to tell its own story.
05:28And I think so much of big tech has lost consumer trust. Some of this is social media. Some of
05:33this is addiction to the screen.
05:34Some of this is just a waning trust in institutions right now globally.
05:38But there is a bigger issue, which is I do think that there is a there's a lack of narrative
05:43around all that can be created if you unmeter intelligence, if you create a world where brilliance is as simple
05:53as turning on a light switch.
05:54And of course, I'm not proposing that everyone is smart. The Internet doesn't mean we do research.
05:58Literacy doesn't mean that everyone reads.
05:59It simply means that we are now exploring a world where agency gives you the opportunity to unlock a bunch
06:06of new things.
06:07I my expectation is we're going to we're going to see a bunch of really incredible things created, in particular
06:12around novel sciences, our ability to know much more about the universe is coming.
06:17But people have to see that in order to get there.
06:20And we're still there's there's this space in between where what they're watching is software get crushed and we don't
06:27yet have cars full of autonomous vehicles and we don't yet have a cure for cancer.
06:31And people are like, OK, well, what's what's the value to me then?
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