00:25This week, a shootout erupted just 90 miles from Florida.
00:30And for the first time in decades, Cuban forces exchanged gunfire with a U.S.-registered boat.
00:36Four people are dead.
00:38And Washington and Havana are now on a collision course.
00:43Here's what we know.
00:44A speedboat registered in Florida, registration FL7726SH, entered Cuban territorial waters
00:53about one nautical mile northeast of the El Pino Canal, near Cayo Falcones, on Cuba's
00:59north-central coast, roughly 90 to 100 miles from Florida.
01:04Cuban authorities say a border guard patrol boat approached to identify the vessel.
01:08On board were 10 people, all Cuban nationals, all living in the United States, members of
01:15the exile community.
01:16And then, according to Cuba's interior ministry, the shooting started.
01:20Cuba claims the group opened fire first, with assault rifles, handguns, and other weapons.
01:26They say Molotov cocktails were on board, bulletproof vests, camouflage gear.
01:31One Cuban commander was wounded.
01:32Cuban forces returned fire.
01:34Four people were killed.
01:36Six were wounded.
01:37All were treated and evacuated.
01:38Cuba called it a foiled armed infiltration for terrorism purposes, and announced one additional
01:44facilitator was arrested on the island.
01:46They released names, including one of the dead, Michelle Ortega Casanova.
01:52Washington confirmed parts of this story.
01:54U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, confirmed the boat was Florida
01:58registered, and that those on board were Cuban nationals residing in the U.S.
02:02But Rubio was clear.
02:04This was not a U.S. government operation.
02:06No U.S. personnel were involved.
02:07He called the incident highly unusual.
02:10There hasn't been a shootout like this with Cuba in a very long time.
02:13And here's where it gets important.
02:15The United States is not taking Cuba's word for it.
02:17The Coast Guard, the Department of Homeland Security, the FBI, and the U.S. Embassy in
02:21Havana are all seeking access to survivors.
02:24Rubio said,
02:25We will not solely rely on what the Cuban authorities have provided.
02:28We will figure out exactly what happened and respond accordingly.
02:32I'll need to get more fidelity and understanding from them once I get on the airplane about
02:36what exactly they're looking for.
02:38I don't know who has possession of the vessel, which is the first thing we'd want to have.
02:41We obviously want to have access to these people, if they are American citizens or U.S. residents.
02:47But I'm not going to speculate now, because right now, still, a lot of the information that's out there is
02:51information that's been provided by the Cubans.
02:53We are going to verify that information independently and reach our own conclusions.
02:58Florida's attorney general launched a statewide probe, saying the Cuban government cannot be trusted.
03:03Lawmakers like Carlos Gimenez and Rick Scott condemned Havana harshly.
03:06And that reaction matters, because this isn't just a migrant smuggling story.
03:10This is the first lethal shootout at sea between Cuban forces and a U.S.-registered vessel with Cuban-American ties
03:16in decades.
03:17The people killed were part of Florida's Cuban exile community, a politically powerful, deeply anti-Castro base.
03:23Deaths on a U.S.-flagged boat hit close to home, and they fuel outrage in Congress.
03:27And then there's the timing.
03:28The Trump administration is in the middle of a maximum pressure campaign against Cuba.
03:32After the Maduro ouster in Venezuela, Washington cut off Cuba's main oil lifeline,
03:36imposed what amounts to an oil blockade, threatened secondary tariffs on countries that help Havana,
03:41and issued an executive order of labeling Cuba an unusual and extraordinary threat.
03:45Trump recently said, Cuba looks like it is ready to fall.
03:48And Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American hawk, warned,
03:51If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I would be concerned.
03:55From Havana's perspective, this was self-defense, an anti-terrorism operation inside their waters.
04:01From the exile community's perspective, it looks like a regime under economic siege,
04:04lashing out violently as it struggles to survive.
04:07That gap in narratives is where escalation lives.
04:10If U.S. investigations contradict Cuba's claim that the boat fired first, tensions spike further.
04:14But here's the key question.
04:16Does this lead to war?
04:17Short answer, no.
04:19Full-scale war is extremely unlikely.
04:21Cuba has no capacity to fight the United States.
04:23Its military is small, its navy and air force are limited,
04:26its economy is already in freefall,
04:27and Washington has no interest in an invasion.
04:30History, from the Bay of Pigs to decades of embargo,
04:32shows how messy that would be.
04:33Urban fighting, refugee waves, international backlash.
04:37This is not about boots on the ground.
04:38It's about pressure.
04:39Expect more sanctions, tighter blockade enforcement,
04:42increased Coast Guard and naval patrols in the Florida Straits,
04:44more diplomatic isolation,
04:46possibly covert support for opposition groups.
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04:57Be out in a flavours.
04:58Bye.
04:59Bye.
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