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00:00Friday is here and a cold front is on the way with it. Wildfire danger expanding to more sections of
00:07Texas. Get ready. Let's talk about it in this Friday edition of your Texas Weather Roundup.
00:21Happy Friday. I'm Texas Storm Chasers Boldy and Chief David Reimer. It is the 20th of February 2026. Thank you
00:27so much for taking time out of your busy day to pop on in for some Texas weather information.
00:33Without further ado, let's get into it. We're going to start off with the high-resolution rapid refresh model, the
00:38HUR, as we go through today, tonight, into Saturday and Saturday night.
00:43Now, as you can see, we could have isolated scattered showers today through this evening across southeast Texas, east Texas,
00:50the coastal plains, even up into the Arklatex.
00:53So, it's going to be a rather dreary day, you know, maybe enough rain to keep things wet, but that
01:00will move out tomorrow morning as a cold front moves in from the north, changing the wind direction to the
01:05north, or out of the north.
01:08Welcome to Dyslexic Dave Day. And with that, we're going to have a much drier air mass move south through
01:13the state of Texas, and that's going to spread wildfire danger across the state.
01:18No severe storms with this activity today, no spinny-spinny-doom-doom, no sharknadoes, no crazy rambunctious rain rates, just
01:27scattered showers.
01:29Let's talk about our wind direction and wind speeds. This is going to be your surface wind gusts, that's your
01:34background color, and then those arrows you see on the screen, that is your wind direction.
01:38So, as you can see, going into tomorrow, and tomorrow night, we're going to have a cold front moving south
01:43through the state.
01:44That's going to result in winds becoming northerly across the state, meaning blowing from the north to the south, and,
01:50at times, becoming quite dusty over 30 miles an hour.
01:54Today, we could have west winds up to 45 miles an hour in the panhandle in west Texas, and then
01:59as that cold front moves south tonight into Saturday, you can see the entire state will have northerly winds tomorrow
02:04into tomorrow night.
02:06At times, especially across the southern half of Texas, tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, winds may gust over 30 to
02:1340 miles per hour out of the north.
02:17So, with that and the very dry air mass we're going to have in place, we are looking at high
02:23to very high fire danger today, the western third of Texas.
02:26On Saturday and Sunday, fire danger very high to locally extreme across parts of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Central
02:36Texas, South Central Texas, with high to very high fire danger on Sunday across the southern half of Texas, while
02:45the panhandle in west Texas get some breathing room.
02:48They calm down, they calm down, their fire danger lower, so, I'd expect the state is going to begin augmenting
02:54firefighting resources to the southern half, to the southern two-thirds of Texas, for tomorrow and Sunday,
03:02which means they're going to have to move a lot of crews around, since a substantial number of resources are
03:08currently committed to the panhandle in west Texas for fires ongoing from the last few days, and the potential for
03:15new starts today.
03:17So, I don't envy them, and I don't envy Tiffmas crews, and any crews, for example, for having to deal
03:24with that kind of a drive hanging into tonight.
03:28But, we definitely thank them for their service, and appreciate everyone out there helping to keep us all safe.
03:36It goes without saying, to make their lives a little easier, please don't be a dumb-dumb and accidentally set
03:42half your county on fire.
03:44Common sense tips here, don't throw cigarettes out the window, make sure you're not dragging chains off your vehicle, and,
03:52of course, something to think about, especially going into the weekend,
03:55if you're going to be working outdoors, please be very mindful if you're using equipment that could generate a spark
04:01that could get blown into grass, you know, welding, fence repair, even grilling, you know, stuff like that.
04:07Please be mindful, and, you know, have, you know, a water can, a fire extinguisher, or something, just in case
04:13a fire gets started.
04:14And, of course, many counties do have burn bans in effect. Make sure you check on yours if you're planning
04:20on doing any sort of outdoor work, whatever.
04:24Upper air pattern over the next week from the European Weather Model Ensemble.
04:28You're looking at winds at 500 millibars. That's about 18,500 feet above sea level.
04:33And what we're going to be looking at, jet stream-level winds, you can see that system kicking through this
04:38weekend,
04:39helping to bring that cold front south along with gustier winds.
04:43Going into early next week, you can see most of Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, we're not doing much across the state.
04:50And then we're going to have another system enter the region, hang it the next Thursday and Friday, depending on
04:58things.
04:59And, well, it's a pretty safe assumption this time of year.
05:02We're probably going to have some wind and increased fire danger across at least the western half of Texas late
05:06next week.
05:07In terms of precipitation chances, let's take a look at the European Weather Model's precipitation outlook.
05:14This is going to take us through next week, and guess what?
05:17But you can see that system moving through Thursday, Friday, quick cool front with northerly winds,
05:23maybe a few rain chances in northeast Texas, better chance of storm storm storm northeast.
05:27The one thing we are lacking here on this map is anything that would indicate widespread precipitation across Texas.
05:35The next week, outside of rain chances that are looking maybe a tenth of an inch in spots today across
05:42east Texas,
05:43southeast Texas, the coastal plains, the rest of the state looks dry.
05:46The next week, at least.
05:48So that means surface fuels will continue becoming more dry, become easier to burn, release more energy when they burn.
05:56And that just means we'll be setting the stage when our next wind event arrives, say in a week or
06:01so, six to seven days.
06:03So fire danger is going to stay high.
06:05And then whenever we get these big wind makers, that's just when the fire danger goes from high to you
06:10start a fire accidentally,
06:12and it goes and burns 200,000 acres, just like we saw happen in the Oklahoma Panhandle in Kansas with
06:19the Ranger Road fire earlier this week that burned nearly 300,000 acres.
06:24And, of course, we've had fires burn almost 40,000 acres in the Texas Panhandle alone since Monday, according to
06:31the Texas A&M Forest Service.
06:33So fire danger is going to stay high.
06:36Let's go ahead and not show you temperatures for Tuesday, but at least you can see it's going to be
06:41toasty.
06:42For today, high temperatures, guess what, 90s South Texas.
06:46We're looking at 50s up in the Panhandle, West Texas, 70s Permian Basin, so not too bad.
06:53Tonight, it's going to be cold up in the Panhandle, lows, upper teens, low 20s, so that very dry air
07:00mass, along with the arriving cool front helping to make things quite chilly for sure.
07:06Lows down to the 30s, West Texas, Northwest Texas, 40s into the Concho Valley, North Texas, Northeast Texas, so definitely
07:13a cool off.
07:15Southeastern half of the state, it's still in the 50s and 60s with low-level clouds and maybe some fog
07:20to start off your day tomorrow.
07:22Saturdays, high temperatures are going to range from the 50s in the West Texas and Panhandle region, the big country,
07:28Northwest Texas and Texoma.
07:3060s are Clitex, North Texas, big country down in the Concho Valley, 70s from the Big Bend through the Hill
07:39Country, Central Texas, Brazos Valley, East Texas, Golden Triangle regions, all the way up into the 80s.
07:45Southeast Texas, Edwards Plateau, South Texas with maybe a 90 or 2 down to the Rio Grande Valley.
07:52Sunday morning, we're looking at a freeze across the northwestern half of the state with temperatures down to the teens
07:58in the Panhandle.
07:5920s, West Texas, Northwest Texas, maybe parts of the big country, Concho Valley, especially in those valleys.
08:0630s down to Central Texas, the Eastern Hill Country, Brazos Valley, East Texas, North Texas.
08:1240s and 50s, southeastern third of the state and near the coast, so definitely a cool off.
08:18Sunday will be probably one of the coolest days we see for the state over the next week as a
08:24whole with highs.
08:24Mostly back into the upper 50s and 60s across Texas with 70s still in South Texas, but that's still 20
08:31degrees less hot than what we saw yesterday and today.
08:35Going into Monday morning, we'll see temperatures down into the 20s and 30s, the northern two-thirds of Texas.
08:42It'll be one of those mornings with efficient radiational cooling, meaning valleys and sheltered regions will tend to be much
08:49cooler than the areas higher up on a hill or in the urban corridors,
08:52so pretty wild temperature fluctuations over short distances.
08:56A pretty chilly start to the day on Monday.
08:59High temperatures rebound nicely, mostly in the 60s and 70s across Texas.
09:04Coolest locations will be Texoma in northeast Texas, right on the fringe of the cooler air mass, moving across the
09:10mid-south into Great Lakes highs, mostly in the 50s there.
09:15Tuesday morning, another cool start to the day across the state with mostly 30s and 40s, warming up quite efficiently
09:22with most of us back up in the 60s, 70s,
09:25and a few 80s returning to the state, especially across the Trans-Pecos and the Borderland, along with the Panhandle
09:34and West Texas.
09:38And so that brings us to the end of this Texas Weather Roundup.
09:43Again, temperatures outside of this weekend.
09:46We do look to get back warm next week.
09:49Above-average temperatures are likely with below-average precipitation chances across Texas.
09:53It's Friday, which means it's time to give a shout-out to our Spinny Doomer members here on the Texas
09:59Weather Roundup David Reimer YouTube channel.
10:02A big thank you to Anthony R. Pelosi, Jr.,
10:05April Stinson,
10:06Burt Alfie,
10:08Christina West,
10:09Deanna,
10:10Donald Yellip,
10:12J.A.,
10:13Justin S.,
10:14LoveLiveLaff,
10:16Nancy Rosenberg,
10:18Knight Davis,
10:19ParanoidPocho,
10:21rslashTornadoChats,
10:22who is Scott,
10:23one of our amazing moderators here,
10:26RascalsZX2,
10:27and Twinkie,
10:27thanks for helping to support us, y'all,
10:29even when the weather is less hyper in the spinny-spinny-doom-doom department.
10:36Now, in terms of fire danger,
10:37we have had some folks ask,
10:39is this a typical thing we deal with here in Texas?
10:42And the answer is yes.
10:44During the late winter months,
10:46after we've had a couple months of freezing temperatures at times,
10:50all the grasses are dormant for the winter,
10:53everything's crunchier than a McDonald's french fry,
10:56what we end up having happen are these wind events move through,
10:59and, you know,
11:00where we do have exacerbating drought conditions as well.
11:03That certainly doesn't help,
11:04but, you know,
11:04up in the Panhandle,
11:06parts of Oklahoma, Kansas,
11:07usually,
11:08at least every other winter or so,
11:10we get these higher fire days,
11:12where, you know,
11:13we get winds over 60 miles an hour,
11:15and then fires start and they move,
11:17and they move quick.
11:19The fire that developed the Ranger Road fire,
11:21the Oklahoma Panhandle that moved into Kansas,
11:23traveled 60 miles in a day.
11:26You know,
11:26the Smokehouse Creek fire here in Texas and Oklahoma two years ago,
11:31almost to the day,
11:32traveled 100 miles almost.
11:34So, again,
11:35that's what happens when you get these very dynamic fire environments
11:38with these high wind events in prairie grass.
11:41These fires move several miles an hour,
11:44usually in a single burning period.
11:46Now,
11:47in terms of that kind of fire activity across the rest of the state,
11:50no,
11:50we don't usually see fires do that kind of crazy behavior,
11:54but,
11:55you know,
11:55this weekend,
11:56with very high fire danger in parts of the Hill Country,
11:59the Conchill Valley,
12:00South Texas,
12:01it's certainly possible we could see significant wildfire activity.
12:05And it doesn't take,
12:07you know,
12:07a five to six digit acre fire to cause significant issues
12:12and threaten homes,
12:14property and lives,
12:15you know,
12:16where we have the wildland urban interface,
12:18towns,
12:18communities,
12:19or just neighborhoods.
12:20You could get a 20 acre fire that ends up burning a neighborhood.
12:24You know,
12:24we had that in Bulk Springs,
12:25Texas several years ago.
12:27They had a fire that,
12:28you know,
12:28covered a field.
12:30It was a few acres,
12:31but it ended up burning over a dozen homes,
12:33unfortunately.
12:33So that's where danger really increases,
12:37especially where you have increased population density,
12:40the Hill Country,
12:42Central Texas,
12:43and many more places across the state.
12:46So that's why having wildfire safety preparedness in mind is always good.
12:50You know,
12:51know where you're going to go if a fire approaches.
12:53You have two different ways out in case one of your exits is cut off.
12:56You know,
12:57do you have a reunion location where your family can meet up,
13:01you know,
13:01a nearby church,
13:02community center,
13:03et cetera,
13:04if,
13:04you know,
13:05your neighborhood's evacuated because of a fire.
13:07It's stuff like that.
13:09So we do deal with fires on a regular basis here.
13:12And this is part of our fire season,
13:15the late winter into early spring before we get rains and things green up and the fire danger
13:20calms itself down typically unless it's a drought year until the late summer when,
13:26you know,
13:26we typically get real hot,
13:28things dry out again.
13:29And then versus having a lot of wind,
13:32it's just hotter than the Dickens.
13:34And then things burn easily again,
13:35especially if,
13:36you know,
13:37we have an extended period of dry weather.
13:39So it's just the cycle.
13:40And that's what we do here in Texas and across the Southern United States.
13:45That's why,
13:46you know,
13:46even though our name is Texas storm chasers,
13:49we do a lot more than just storms.
13:51You know,
13:51we do storms,
13:52flooding,
13:53hurricanes,
13:54fires,
13:56temperature issues.
13:56Take your pick.
13:58What did I miss?
13:59Snowstorms,
14:00winter storms.
14:01I mean,
14:02it is what is,
14:03right?
14:04Welcome to the state of Texas.
14:05So that is going to be it for your Friday edition of the Texas weather roundup and your
14:09balding and chief ism for the week.
14:11Thanks for popping on in.
14:13And we will keep a very close eye on conditions going through the weekend.
14:16And as always,
14:17you can get your local weather forecast,
14:18no matter where you are in the United States,
14:21along with interactive weather radar and more in the free Texas storm chasers mobile app.
14:25If you want to watch our 24 seven live Texas weather roundup feed,
14:29just click on the articles button in our free mobile app.
14:32It'll be the top article there on our website,
14:34top article on the homepage or Texas storm chasers.com slash live.
14:38And of course you can find us on YouTube.
14:41So that is it.
14:43Thanks for popping on in.
14:44We appreciate it.
14:44Have an amazing Friday and amazing weekend.
14:47I'll be back with your regular Texas weather roundups on Monday,
14:50but keep an eye out on the Texas storm chasers YouTube for weekend content.
14:54And that's it.
14:55Have a good one.
14:56And God bless.
15:00Have a good one.
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