00:00Well, for more analysis on the war in Ukraine, we're joined by Samuel Romani,
00:04Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. Thank you very much for speaking to
00:09us on France 24. I want to start with a recent article that you wrote for The Telegraph.
00:15You argue that time is on Ukraine's side. Why?
00:20Well, I think that people are making a misinterpretation when they basically say
00:24that the longer the negotiations take and the more the stalling that happens,
00:28the more it benefits Russia, because actually we're starting to see some tides turn on the
00:32battlefield. We've already seen 300 square kilometers of territory be liberated by the
00:37Ukrainians, mostly on the southern front line around Zaporizhia. That's significantly more
00:41than what Russia captured during the entirety of December of 2025. We're seeing the Russians
00:47losing access to Starlink and that affecting their communication systems. Moreover, we're seeing
00:51new technologies enter the Ukrainian military, like the Lynx tanks that are coming from Rheinmetall
00:57and Germany, which are quite significant. And just other statistics, like the 1.3 million
01:03Russians who have been killed or injured in this war. Manpower recruitment is falling behind
01:09casualties for two months consecutive to the point at which Russia needs foreign fighters. And then
01:13there's the war economy bubble bursting. So I think there's lots of factors that could lead to
01:18Ukraine gaining some more advantages. I don't mean that Ukraine can win the war and can kick the
01:22Russians out of Donbass and Crimea or anything like that. But I mean that the longer duration
01:27doesn't necessarily fall into Russia's favor. And Russia can't really outlast the West like I think
01:32it can. Well, what about the Russians? I mean, aren't they also using FPV drones? Aren't they also,
01:41you know, you mentioned the faltering access to Starlink, but some believe that Russia will find a
01:46workaround for that. So, you know, how close is it? Can we, is, is, what's to put Ukraine ahead?
01:55Well, yeah, the Russians definitely have significant breakthroughs that they've
01:59undergone with FPVs. That's why it's very important that, you know, the counter drone technologies
02:04continue to sharpen. So, for example, the Ukrainians are doing some cutting edge investments
02:09in drone-to-drone interceptions, which don't require expensive missiles to occur. We should
02:17also be watching some foreign-backed equipment, like the Sky Rangers coming in, that could actually
02:22shoot these drones out. They've got 35mm cannons, which are good at dealing with drones more effective
02:26than missiles. So, yeah, I mean, obviously, it's a battle between the quality of the FPV drones and
02:33Russia's scalability of Iranian model drones, which you seem to be doing quite well on, and Ukraine's
02:38ability to create cheaper, mass-produced counter-drone defense systems. There's a very
02:44vibrant startup culture inside Ukraine, getting foreign investments, dealing with indigenous
02:48technology. That's really a battle between indigenous innovations on both sides to determine
02:52who has an edge in the drone war. Well, as you alluded to, data point to unsustainable losses for
02:59Moscow. Some 1.3 million Russians either have been wounded or killed since the start of the war.
03:04But how big of a deal is this when both sides are relying so heavily on drone warfare?
03:12Well, I mean, I think it's quite significant, obviously, because this is fundamentally now a war
03:17of attrition, right? There's immense numbers of people dying for a territory that's extremely small.
03:22I mean, the rate of attrition for the Russians is higher than the Battle of Sam during World War I,
03:26which is kind of seen as the benchmark of attritional warfare in Europe for about a century now.
03:31So, obviously, drones are really what's going to be deciding what's happening on the battlefield,
03:37I think, even more than the quantity of tanks and, to some extent, the quantity of ammunition
03:44and artillery, though, obviously, European supply chains do seem to be a little bit more vulnerable
03:49in that regard compared to what Russia can source domestically and from its partners like North Korea.
03:54But, ultimately, yeah, manpower is critical. Ukraine's got manpower problems, too. 600,000 men have fled the
04:00war zone. They're struggling to find recruitments. They're increasing the conscription age to 60.
04:05But Russia's manpower problems are maybe even more acute in some cases, just simply because they're
04:10losing, as an offensive force, significantly more people for every Ukrainian soldier.
04:16So, militarily speaking, what could give Ukraine a decisive edge? Is maintaining the flow of Western
04:22weapons and ammunition enough?
04:25I mean, definitely maintaining the flow of ammunition and weapons is enough. Definitely
04:29new IFVs and new artillery, like I mentioned, links, things of that variety can be good. Investing
04:35as heavily as possible in indigenous defense technologies, especially in the drone space,
04:39as well as in any kind of analogs the Ukrainians might be producing as an alternative to Starlink
04:44as well, which might create some more unpredictabilities for the Russians in the communications space,
04:49especially if the Russians are developing their own sorts of communications. There's lots of ways the
04:55U.S. can help Ukraine. And moreover, I think there needs to be a pairing of that with significant
05:01amounts of development assistance, as well as assistance to repair Ukraine's energy grids and
05:07energy infrastructure. We already were seeing some delays and some particularly coming from here in
05:13Britain with regards to that, which have been quite concerning. And Britain slashing, for example,
05:17its ODA budget while at the same time increasing defense spending. There needs to be a whole
05:23of kind of conflict approach. So you're not just supplying weapons on the ground, but you're also
05:29ensuring that the infrastructure to manufacture those weapons domestically and the infrastructure
05:34that's needed to keep the morale high at home is there. So it needs to be a holistic support
05:39for Ukraine economically and militarily. Well, for all its weaknesses, Russia has been unwilling to
05:45compromise on key issues like territory in these peace negotiations. What do you think is the strategy
05:51here, especially if, as you say, time is on Ukraine's side? Well, Russia doesn't see it that way,
05:57obviously. And Russia believes that it can outlast the West, that eventually the West is going to get
06:01tired. Trump is going to get impatient, blame Zelensky for not making territorial concessions,
06:06and Europe is not going to be able to have enough cars or enough weapons to be able to take
06:12the U.S.'s
06:12place. And then the Russians will be able to grind to victory in Donbass, potentially take over parts
06:19of Djibouti Petrovsk, Kurzon, and Zaporizhia. So the Russians are still gambling on the fact that Western
06:24resolve is going to falter and that they can outlast and win. That's been the idea that they've had
06:30ever since the start of the war, and that's not changing. I don't think that that's necessarily
06:34grounded in empirics, but it's deeply ingrained in the Russian military and collective psyche,
06:40and definitely deeply ingrained in how Putin views the world. Putin still sees the West as
06:45fundamentally weak after the inadequate responses to the 2008 war in Georgia, the 2014 annexation of
06:51Crimea, the war crimes in Syria, and also some of the initial escalation risk concerns and early
06:57delays in weapons deliveries in 2022. And he believes that ultimately, Russia will outlast
07:02the West. So it's not necessarily a fully empirical calculation. I think it's just a deeply rooted
07:08belief that is very hard to shake. And that leads to Russia being very intransigent at the diplomatic
07:13table. All right, Samuel Romani from the Royal United Services Institute. Thank you very much.
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