00:00Well, to help us understand all of this, I'm delighted to say we're joined by David Hennig,
00:03the Director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy.
00:10David, great to have you with us. Thank you.
00:11Donald Trump clearly very unhappy and angry about the Supreme Court ruling
00:16and then his subsequent announcements of 10% and then 15% tariffs on global imports.
00:21The President's saying that this is fully allowed now and legally tested.
00:25I mean, is that right, or could these be challenged again legally?
00:30So the basis upon which he has now put on a 15% global tariff is Section 122, it is
00:38known.
00:39It's not legally tested, it has never been deployed before, but it is only limited to 150 days.
00:46So I think that even if there was a legal challenge, I suspect that it wouldn't be heard anyway
00:51during the period in which it was deployed.
00:53Therefore, I think it's quite likely that these tariffs will continue.
00:56But there's a lot of other confusion around, in particular about the basis upon which President Trump can do deals
01:02with other countries to lower these tariffs, because it's no longer clear whether he has the authority to do so.
01:08And so where does it leave the countries that are part of this sort of patchwork of deals
01:13that already were struck after the so-called Liberation Day, such as the UK agreeing 10% with the United
01:19States?
01:20Will those still stand and be honoured?
01:23It is not clear whether those deals will stand, will continue to be honoured, what their legal status may be.
01:31And countries concerned are starting to realise this and are putting out statements to that extent.
01:37So the EU has put out a statement, I think today, saying we urgently seek clarification as to whether you
01:43are going to
01:43stick to the commitments that you made in what was known as the Turnberry Deal.
01:47But I think other countries as well are in contact with the US and saying, where does this in fact
01:53leave us?
01:54In one sense, we probably have passed peak tariff.
01:57But in another, there's now likely to be more confusion that happens.
02:03We can expect that there will be more tariffs on specific products.
02:07I think these tariffs will certainly continue for the 150 days legally allowed.
02:12So I'm afraid that there's going to be a lot of uncertainty in the coming weeks,
02:17rather similar to that that we had when these reciprocal tariffs were first announced last April.
02:22So more chaos, uncertainty, confusion domestically in the United States.
02:26I mean, how much had the tariffs that the Supreme Court struck down cost states and businesses and consumers?
02:33And as this ruling leaves open the possibility of businesses and consumers applying for refunds,
02:39do you see that happening?
02:41So the importers who paid the tariffs should be eligible for refunds,
02:47but that's not necessarily going to benefit those companies who were exporting to the US necessarily or the consumers.
02:55Now, there have been a number of studies now of consumers in the US which appear to show that they
03:02definitely are bearing the extra cost.
03:04But because there have been large numbers of carve-outs from these tariffs,
03:09it seems that they've overall not had the economic impact that was feared.
03:14There has been some negative economic impact,
03:16but perhaps it hasn't slowed down growth by quite as much as expected,
03:23which I think is a little bit of good news here.
03:26And obviously, President Trump is showing some signs of awareness of unpopularity of the tariffs
03:31insofar as there are more products being excluded from them,
03:36particularly in terms of food and drink, because otherwise prices will go up.
03:42David, really grateful for your insights.
03:44Thank you so much for joining us.
03:45David Hennig there, the Director of the UK Trade Policy Project
03:49at the European Centre for International Political Economy.
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