00:00Let's continue with this now with Marco Forgioni, Director General of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade.
00:07Marco, thanks so much for your time.
00:10What do you think? Are the countries that have been hit by your tariffs, are they in a better or
00:16worse position after this ruling, in your view?
00:20Well, after the announcement of the 10% tariffs across the board, most countries are in a slightly better position.
00:28They're in a better position because the marginal tariff rate has reduced, and more importantly, they're in a better position
00:35because at least now there's a degree of certainty with regards to what the terms and the rules are.
00:41And there's certainty also with regards to the limits of the presidential power in implementing tariffs.
00:48Now, we only have 150 days of that certainty, and during the next 150 days, for sure, President Trump and
00:55the administration will be initiating new investigations about the possibility of there being unfair trade practices,
01:04and therefore the ability of the administration to impose much higher tariffs.
01:09All of this, of course, being used as part of a bargaining tool, as part of the America First Agenda
01:17and President Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
01:21What do you think this means for a country like China?
01:26Well, there's going to be a marginal drop in the general rate of tariffs for the non-contentious products, the
01:34consumer goods, clothing products that were part of the so-called Liberation Day announcements.
01:41In areas that are contentious around national security, the so-called fentanyl tariffs, those will remain in place.
01:49So you're going to see a drop from somewhere between 35% and 50% to 20% to 35
01:55% on the tariffs.
01:57But that is only for the next 150 days.
02:00I think the biggest point, though, is that as we enter the beginning of the Year of the Horse, we
02:06do have, in a few weeks' time, the U.S. state visit to China, where President Trump will be meeting
02:14President Xi.
02:15And it will be interesting to see what comes out of those conversations and those negotiations in Beijing.
02:22I think it's worth bearing in mind, of course, that the characteristics of the Year of the Horse are that
02:28they are decisive, but they can be easily swayed and are impatient.
02:35I think that's a great example of where we are currently in President Trump's engagement with international trade.
02:42Yeah, and you put it so well when you said, well, we've got 150 days of certainty, because that's how
02:49long these new tariffs under the Trade Act can be imposed for.
02:53I presume the Trump administration will work on other tariffs that they can introduce during that time.
03:00What does all this say about the United States' reputation as a reliable trading partner?
03:07Well, I think we have to recognise that what President Trump is doing is not just about trade. Trade is
03:13an important part of it.
03:14It is a much more significant America First agenda, and he very, very determinedly is unpicking the traditional, the existing
03:24global multilateral system.
03:26So we are going to see ongoing pressure and efforts on a bilateral basis for President Trump to impose his
03:34will to drive investment and manufacturing back into the United States and to use all the tools at his disposal
03:43to achieve that.
03:44Obviously, there are nations that are not going to want to sign up or to be subject to those sorts
03:52of pressures,
03:52and there are opportunities, I think, moving forward for the BRICS to try and establish a new trading community.
04:01We've heard, of course, from Mark Carney about moves to establish a middle nations alliance with the UK, Australia and
04:15others.
04:15So we're seeing the emergence of new structures within the global supply chain, global multilateral engagements,
04:24and it's going to be interesting where this actually rests, particularly where the most powerful, largest economy in the world
04:33is determined to impose its will against others.
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