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00:15Welcome to A Round and A Side, A Diplomatic Journey.
00:22The United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, recently made a dire prediction
00:30about the United Nations.
00:32He said, UN is in a race to bankruptcy and it faces imminent financial collapse.
00:41He went on to say that UN could run out of cash by July 2026.
00:51This is a major crisis.
00:53On the one hand, the UN is losing credibility as a peacemaking organization.
00:59And on the other hand, it may not have any funding.
01:04So we have to consider whether this can be rectified.
01:08Whether paid contributions will be paid in full and in time by the members.
01:15And whether the UN can find a new situation where it becomes thinner and leaner.
01:23To discuss this, we have Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj, who was, till recently, the permanent representative
01:30of India to the United Nations.
01:33Welcome Ruchira Kamboj, good to see you again.
01:36Thank you, sir.
01:37Great to see you again.
01:38So tell us a little bit about the financing structure and how it works.
01:45Well, I think the financial situation of the United Nations is quite severe.
01:50Undoubtedly so.
01:51And you are absolutely right.
01:52Earlier this year, the Secretary General wrote to member states when he said that the UN was
01:57close to a financial collapse.
01:59And he has even given a date, July 2026.
02:03So roughly, if you look at it, in 150 days, if member states don't pay up or in full, the
02:10UN could really be in a very dire situation.
02:14Now, what's new about this?
02:16In the past, also, Secretary Generals have warned about the financial situation of the
02:21United Nations.
02:21But this time, it is beyond that.
02:24It's not just a budget shortfall.
02:26It is a serious financial or liquidity crisis where the UN is clearly under stress.
02:31No, the difficult, the financial difficulty of the situation has been highlighted several
02:36times.
02:37I think it was during President Bush's time that he willfully withdrew US contribution
02:44to the United States at one point in order to force the UN to become thin and also to
02:51reduce expenditure.
02:52We used to call them, at that time, this is Cinderella's stepmother's technique, that
03:00you deny sustenance to Cinderella so that she improves.
03:04And this is what it was called at that time.
03:06But it was not so serious.
03:07We could make adjustments.
03:10The UN secretariat plays around with funds all the time.
03:14They sometimes, you know, wait for payments to be made.
03:19For example, peacekeeping operations are not always paid directly, immediately.
03:24So these things were going on all these years.
03:27But still, the UN survived all these 80 years.
03:30But why has it come to such a pass at this time?
03:33Well, I think the answer to that is quite simple.
03:35Simply because member states have not paid up their dues at all or in full.
03:41And when that situation arrives, you arrive at the present point.
03:45The United States, as all of us know, is the largest financial contributor to the United
03:50Nations.
03:50And if you look at a total of what they owe to the United Nations, both in terms of the
03:57general budget and the peacekeeping budget, it's almost four billion US dollars, as we
04:02are told.
04:02Of course, very recently, just last week, they've paid up a certain amount, 160 million.
04:08But clearly, that's not enough.
04:10There are other debtors, too, and there are member states who have not paid up in full.
04:15In fact, there was a figure that we all saw that in early February this year, only about
04:2060 countries.
04:228th of February was the deadline, right?
04:24Yes.
04:24And that's not a good figure if only about 58, 60 countries have paid up their contributions
04:30on time and in full.
04:31So, clearly, member states are not paying up on time and in full.
04:35And because there is over-dependence, if I may say so, on a small group of member countries,
04:41that further exacerbates the situation.
04:43But why is it that so many countries which have been paying in the past have stopped paying?
04:48Is that a political message?
04:50Well, there is undeniably a deep disappointment in terms of the peace and security mandate of
04:56the United Nations.
04:57If you just look around, whether you look at the COVID pandemic or you look at Ukraine
05:01and Gaza, of course, the peace and security mandate of the United Nations, it is far from
05:06being fulfilled.
05:08There are more conflicts today than at any other time since World War II.
05:13But as far as the other UN is concerned, the sectoral bodies, they are still performing
05:18and they are very, very critical.
05:21So, I'm not too sure whether there is a complete disillusionment with the United Nations across
05:26the board.
05:26For the smaller states, and they constitute about 56% of the membership of the United Nations,
05:33the UN still remains very important.
05:36As to why others have not paid up or in full or on time, there could be various reasons,
05:43one of which could be that the Global South, many, many countries face stresses in many other
05:50directions, funding for development, debt situation and so forth.
05:55But because the UN financing system is structured in a fashion whereby there is an over-dependence
06:02on a small group of major contributors, I think this really hits you hard if one of those
06:07contributors does not pay up its amount in full or on time.
06:11Are they trying to discipline the UN by doing this or is it simply that they are not in a
06:16position to pay?
06:17Well, that's the million-dollar question.
06:20Perhaps there is some disillusionment with the United Nations.
06:24And the very fact that the United States has led on another structure that has coincidentally
06:31met just yesterday, a plurilateral grouping called the Board of Peace is indicative of perhaps
06:38a sense of disappointment that the UN has not been able to fulfill its peace and security mandate.
06:43And there I do think there would be many supporters. Where there are some supporters is the work that
06:50the sectoral bodies do.
06:52You mean specialized agencies?
06:53The specialized agencies. Yes, the UNDP, UNICEF, the World Food Programme and so forth.
06:59They are still doing excellent work provided, of course, they have the funds and provided they have the staff.
07:04That has also become an issue today.
07:06But those payments are separate. They are not in the UN fund. They pay separately to these organizations.
07:12They have their own.
07:13Yes, absolutely. Yes.
07:15So is there something which can be done about recruitment? Is it possible to reduce the staff?
07:21Well, I think you've touched upon a very important issue. As far as recruitment at the United Nations is concerned,
07:28Article 101 of the UN Charter makes it very clear that there should be a balance between professional merit
07:35and geographical representation. So very often you have a lot of staff recruited because a certain region must have
07:42a certain number of seats. But at the same time, I would like to think still that merit remains the
07:48paramount factor.
07:50It is also true part of UN folklore, as you say, that Secretary General Boutros Ghali's claim to have said
07:57that only about 50% of the UN works,
08:00which means that the other 50% is dead wood. But I would not like to imagine so.
08:05I would like to imagine that the UN achieves a good balance between merit and geographical representation.
08:11But the point that you make is right, because geographical representation has become a political issue,
08:17has always been a political issue. And very often, you know, we are told that, no, this is your candidate
08:25is good.
08:25But it is also important that we take a candidate from some other region. So that factor is very much
08:32there,
08:33as part of the recruitment processes in the United Nations are concerned.
08:39Because of the geographical balance, we have a situation where an Indian in a normal way cannot get into the
08:45system,
08:46because India is over-represented when it comes to professional courses.
08:51Yes, as we are always told, and as the other member states say, they are also told likewise.
08:57So everyone seems to have a grouse here. And I think the question also arises because very often you find
09:03that
09:03for certain countries, certain seats seem to be eternally there. Like for UN DESA,
09:09there's always a Chinese at the level of Undersecretary General.
09:13As far as peacekeeping is concerned, it is invariably a French official who holds those positions.
09:19Department of Peacebuilding and Political Affairs, it's always the United States.
09:23So I think these questions are very valid. The entire recruitment process is quite valid.
09:30But if you go by the spirit and letter of the Charter, well, it has to be a balance between
09:34merit and geographical representation,
09:36and not just the latter.
09:38Yes. So that is one issue. And the other issue is changes take a long time to be implemented in
09:45the UN.
09:46There are several sections, several divisions of the UN who do not have the kind of importance it used to
09:53have earlier.
09:53Is that one of the issues?
09:55No, indeed. I think this is a very key point. There is a lot in the UN that is not
10:00needed strictly.
10:01You know, there's a lot of bureaucracy. And like any other bureaucracy, the UN bureaucracy is very slow.
10:07And there's a lot of duplication. And also the various departments of the United Nations, they are not coordinated.
10:13The left and the right hand often don't know what they are doing, or very often they are duplicating what
10:19the other one is doing.
10:20So we have all of those problems.
10:21Let's hope that the arrears will be paid, because they are arrears, they are not something which can be further
10:27negotiated.
10:28But is there scope for this whole idea of assessed contributions being revised in some way?
10:35I believe there is an ongoing discussion, because I think among the issues that the Secretary General raised in his
10:41letter to Member States in January this year,
10:44apart from drawing attention to the very dire financial situation of the United Nations,
10:49he also clearly took up the related issue of revising some of the archaic financial frameworks of the United Nations.
10:57And I do believe that the Fifth Committee of the United Nations will be looking into this issue very closely,
11:02so that we might be able to come up with some solution and revise the financial framework in a manner
11:10that it works better.
11:12For example, prioritizing better the programs and activities of the United Nations,
11:17or matching mandates and resources, or modern budgeting.
11:22All of this can turn this crisis moment into perhaps something good.
11:27So we'll just have to wait and see.
11:29The process is quite long drawn.
11:31And as everyone knows, when many Member States, and this is 193, are sitting down to discuss this issue, it
11:38will take time.
11:39It won't be easy.
11:40But I think this is also the moment to look at some of these structural issues.
11:44If it is cosmetic, then I'm afraid we won't get anywhere.
11:49But if you really do a structural overhaul of the financial framework of the United Nations,
11:55we might get something good out of this.
11:57But having made this prediction, has the Secretary General taken any measures to amend or change things around?
12:04Or is it just a prediction and he's hoping that payments will be made?
12:08Is that the situation now?
12:09Well, I think the Secretary General has been extremely vocal about this.
12:13And at the very start of UNGA 18, September, he had made it quite evident that there was a development
12:19crisis within the United Nations,
12:21which may be read as a financial crisis.
12:23And to that end, a lot of work, as I understand this, has been done.
12:28For example, a lot of offices have been relocated out of New York to Germany, to Spain, to Africa.
12:37For example, look at the UNFPA.
12:40A lot of those posts, some of those posts have been relocated to Nairobi in Kenya.
12:46But does it become cheaper than UNDP?
12:48Do those posts become cheaper because of the 11s or less?
12:50Yes, I believe so.
12:52Yes, definitely, definitely.
12:53We are told that there's day-to-day cost-cutting as well.
12:56I mean, you see fewer personnel posted, for example, at the entrance of the United Nations.
13:01You're cutting back on, perhaps, security guards and so forth.
13:05All of that is happening.
13:06And there is also talk about cutting back further on posts, even up to 20%, if the budget situation does
13:14not improve.
13:14So, action is being taken because there is, frankly, no other way to do this.
13:19What will happen in July, according to you?
13:22This will all be made up by then?
13:23Well, I don't think it will be lights out.
13:27The UN will still continue to function.
13:29And as I've already mentioned, I understand that last week there was a certain payment made by the United States.
13:38I'm told 160 million.
13:40So, the UN will continue to function, but it will have to function in a manner that is more prudent,
13:48more streamlined, that goes without saying.
13:52Thinner and leaner United Nations.
13:53Is it possible, is the question?
13:55I think they have no choice.
13:57They'll have to be thinner, leaner, meaner, without a doubt, because the present structures and the way the organization is
14:06functioning, I think this will not be countenanced longer.
14:11The bloating, the staff situation, a lot already has been done.
14:17And people are talking about an operational slowdown because with fewer people, it does impact programs and delivery.
14:24Unless something dramatic happens in member states, particularly the number one contributor to the United Nations pays up all those
14:33arrears and continues to pay on time in future, the United Nations will just have to manage with much less
14:42and still try to continue to be more effective,
14:46particularly in the operational programs that it manages so well, the UNDP, the World Food Programme, UNICEF, UNHCR and so
14:57forth.
14:57And this situation has been further compounded by the fact that the U.S. has withdrawn from several agencies, organizations,
15:05and also they have stopped their own bilateral programs like USAID, etc.
15:10So the situation in developing countries, particularly in Africa, where they are dependent on USAID for medicines, for HIV, AIDS,
15:18etc., must have become already very grave.
15:22So United Nations may have to step in where the member state has failed.
15:27So that would be an additional responsibility that may come about.
15:31Yes, that's quite possible.
15:33The U.S. withdrawal has impacted multilateralism very deeply.
15:37And it's also at a psychological level, if I may say so, to have a specter whereby the number one
15:44financial contributor withdraws suddenly from 31 organizations and does not necessarily always speak in very complementary terms in as far
15:53as the work of the United Nations is concerned.
15:55That does hit the organization, apart, of course, from the operational activities.
16:00When the U.S. withdrew from UNIDO, you know, we went from Vienna on a representation to the Secretary General
16:06to find out why they were withdrawing from UNIDO.
16:10And the reason has gone very strange.
16:12They said that UNIDO is competing with United States industries and machinery and work.
16:17I mean, this is astonishing because what the UNIDO does is in very small scale.
16:22And they are not, UNIDO is not competing with the United States in international, you know, the financial situation.
16:28So, but then they withdrew.
16:30They did not come back.
16:31They are not members of UNIDO.
16:32UNESCO also, they did it once, but they came back.
16:35But UNIDO is without.
16:36So, this kind of withdrawal of the U.S. from this and the creation of the Board of Peace, so
16:43gives you an impression that there is going to be a kind of shift from one to the other.
16:48There could be a really small organization which would deal only with peace and security and with the kind of
16:55dispensation that the President Trump has spelt out.
16:59And he being the chairman of the Board of Peace forever.
17:03So, these kind of situations are really, you know, ominous for the United Nations.
17:09And that may be one of the reasons why people are not paying their dues.
17:12Yes, no, that's true because you've touched upon an important point.
17:15This is also the era of plurilaterals and minilaterals.
17:19And precisely because the UN has not lived up to expectations, has not lived up to promise.
17:25India itself is a member of close to 20 minilaterals or plurilaterals, likewise other countries.
17:32So, member states find these more agile, more nimble, more flexible, and frankly, they do good business.
17:40These are not new, of course.
17:42Historically, also, you've had minilaterals in the past.
17:46I think the Concert of Europe in 1815 was the first modern minilaterals when five great powers,
17:53I think it was at that time Britain, Russia, Prussia, Austria, and France met from time to time
17:58to review developments within Europe and retain the balance of power.
18:02That worked for about 40 years.
18:04Even in Indochina, we were leading that effort, you know, outside the…
18:09It was part of the United Nations operation, but it was a mini kind of group.
18:14But are you also including in them, you know, organizations like BRICS, etc., or G20?
18:20Yes, yes.
18:21BRICS, G20 would be plurilateral organizations, and I think a lot of work is being done there, too.
18:27But you have the smaller ones also, like Quad, like I2U2, Paxilica, for example.
18:33All of these are smaller, more nimble organizations.
18:36And the funding is separate for them.
18:37The funding is separate for them.
18:39It won't come into this situation.
18:41Some of them are being discredited, like the United States does not like BRICS.
18:45And they say G20, they are going to host, but they will not invite Saudi Arabia to it,
18:51or things like that.
18:52So if these organizations have been doing well,
18:57so this prejudice against them will also work against the peace-building exercise we are doing all the time.
19:04Well, what I feel is that both these groupings, multilateralism, of course, and plurilateralism,
19:10I think they need not be exclusionary.
19:13They can be mutually reinforcing.
19:15They can exist side by side.
19:17And I've just given an example.
19:19It's not that this is a new phenomenon.
19:21It's existed in the past as well.
19:22The problem is that one is working and the other is not.
19:26We have to make both tracks work.
19:27So there is a scope for further improving the working arrangements, financial arrangements, peacekeeping operations.
19:35Like, for example, peacekeeping operations, India, for example, or the UN owes a lot of money to India.
19:41We are running the peace cooperation with Indian budget because they are not paying.
19:46So this kind of situation also will jeopardize various activities of the United Nations.
19:51So there is a real need for a review.
19:54Of course, the reviews are going on all the time.
19:56But in this context, do you expect that there will be a serious effort to deal with these issues before
20:02July?
20:03Well, I should imagine there should be a serious effort because the situation is very serious and demands a very
20:09serious effort on the part of member states.
20:11Because as you and I will agree, I think at the end of it, it boils down to political will.
20:17And that is very important.
20:19You can draw attention to a financial crisis or a particular situation at the United Nations.
20:24But if there is no political will that matches that crisis or that problem, then we are really in trouble.
20:29So I should imagine that member states are very serious because this is a serious crisis.
20:34As we have agreed in the past, also, Secretaries-General have drawn attention to the financial situation of the United
20:41Nations.
20:42But this time, it is far more dire, far more serious.
20:45And the Secretary-General has himself used the words financial collapse, which sounds pretty alarmist to me without meaning.
20:53Bankruptcy.
20:54Race to bankruptcy, not race against.
20:57He has been very consistent and vocal about this.
21:00It's not that he suddenly said so.
21:02I think through the course of this year, he has been very vocal about it.
21:06And he has been warning member states to pay up their amounts in full, on time, their arrears.
21:13So I think this follows a trend and a pattern.
21:15And now he's sort of drawn attention to something that is really very, very serious.
21:20So the point I was making was that it's not enough asking for ideas to be paid, but also show
21:25that the United Nations is trying to reduce expenditure and becoming thinner and leaner.
21:30And that kind of an effort is made, there might be more confidence.
21:33Thank you very much for joining me today.
21:35It's a very interesting discussion.
21:37Thank you very much.
21:40Thank you very much.
22:14Thank you very much.
22:20If we are here today,
22:22we will be the first time to come.
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