00:00And to discuss all of this further, I'm glad to say we're joined now by Fabrice Portier,
00:04the CEO of Rasmussen Global, who previously also served as Director of Policy Planning
00:09for the NATO Alliance. Sir, welcome. It's great to have you on the show this morning.
00:13Now, I'd like to get your take first on Rubio's Munich speech. Were you reassured when he spoke
00:19of an intertwined destiny for the US and Europe? Or does Europe still need to realise it cannot
00:25do it alone and needs a plan B for its security? I would say it's probably both. There was clearly
00:32a feeling of calm before the next tempest, where obviously Rubio cast a tone that was much more
00:40friendly than the previous US speaker at the previous MSC, J.D. Vance, who really kind of
00:49open almost hostility against Europe. However, I think nobody was naive in thinking that this is
00:57not an olive branch. This is just a way to make the past few months a bit less painful. But
01:04clearly,
01:05the roll ahead, as I mentioned, this is can't be for the next tempest because the roll ahead is still
01:10made of many differences. I think Ukraine is still lurking very much around the corner in terms of big
01:17US-Europe-Ukraine difference. And Greenland is not completely, in a way, sold. And I think the
01:24Danish prime minister was pretty clear about that.
01:26And do you think Greenland could be the next storm? Because we heard from Mette Friedrichsen,
01:30the Danish prime minister, over the weekend suggesting Donald Trump is still very serious
01:35about buying the island. Do you agree with her that there's still a big risk there for the NATO alliance?
01:42But clearly, the problem is there's a mismatch between what the Danes, the Europeans,
01:47are trying to do, which is to improve support to Greenland, both on the security and the economic
01:52front, which is a rational way of addressing possible vulnerabilities out there. And the US
02:00president who just takes a very emotional, personal view that he just wants to own that piece of
02:06estate. He's thinking like a Manhattan real estate mogul. So he doesn't take a very rational approach to
02:14it. And that's the mismatch that I think the Danes are trying to manage with a diplomatic process.
02:21How long the diplomatic process is going to keep things together? This is the big question mark.
02:26I think we have to be ready for the next crisis. And clearly, the show of unity by the Europeans
02:32in addressing the US threat on Greenland worked once and may have to work another time, but we'll have
02:38to be willing to put even more skin in this game. You obviously shaped NATO policy for many years.
02:45Do you think there's a real crisis within the HQ here in Brussels? You know, we heard EU leaders
02:51von der Leyen talking about reactivating the EU's own defence clause over the weekend, seemingly because
02:56they cannot rely on NATO's Article 5. Is the NATO alliance as we've known it for decades now dead?
03:02It's gone. Well, I think it's not reactivating the EU mutual defence clause. It's making it real
03:09as a start because it's never been taken really seriously. But on your NATO question, I think we
03:15are entering the age of parallel universes where NATO is still going to be there. It's still a very much
03:22a
03:22valid option for the Europeans, both in terms of US extended nuclear deterrent, but also in terms of
03:29framework to plan and prevent the next war against Russia. However, clearly what you hear in the
03:37corridors, but also in the main hallway, is that we need to start thinking about Plan Bs. And for that,
03:44you're going to have the European Union, but you also are going to have increasingly the development
03:49of coalitions, like the Coalition of the Wheeling for Ukraine, which maybe is going to be put with more
03:55substance or the joint expeditionary force that is led by the UK. So I think you're going to have
04:01the multiplication of all these Plan Bs in response to the fact that, answering your question, I think
04:06the US has introduced a very significant doubt as to its commitment to Europe via NATO. And therefore,
04:13NATO is still going to go on, but it's no longer the one and only Plan A.
04:18Fabrice Potier, that's all we have time for this morning, but thank you so much for coming on
04:22and joining us and sharing your insights.
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