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Europe Today: Wywiad z Fabrice'em Pothierem i Monachijska Konferencja Bezpieczeństwa
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00:18Marethe Gwynne
00:32Marethe Gwynne
01:27Marethe Gwynne
01:29że intertwined both
01:32the United States
01:34and the Europe and the
01:36European Union to some extent, but then
01:38he also suggested there needs to
01:40be this form of alignment that goes from the
01:41economy to trade, cultural
01:43even spiritually. So yes,
01:46America can work with Europe
01:48but it's a version of Europe that needs to
01:50be in alignment with the views
01:51of the US to a large degree.
01:54With officials that I spoke, they said
01:55look, there was relief because compared
01:58to last year, J.D. Vance, that was a
01:59wrecking ball. This year was much
02:02polite to that extent, but
02:03the structure that we've seen before from
02:05the US government, that US National Security
02:07Review which talked about civilizational
02:10erasure, all of those points
02:11from saying we're in a sort of climate cult,
02:14the idea of wokeness, mass
02:16migration, this is not a minor issue.
02:18Marco Rubio told
02:19the Munich Security Conference, all of that was present
02:22there. At the same time,
02:23then you had the Europeans. Emmanuel
02:25Macron talked about this idea of a Europe that
02:27has been vilified and caricature
02:29to the Chancellor Mertz
02:31who said, at this point, the leadership of the US
02:33is being contested. It is
02:35not clear that the US will lead
02:37the world. And then, of course, Kaya
02:39Callas, I was at a panel with her.
02:41I should note, Kaya Callas had a bit of a revival
02:43over the weekend because she was pushing
02:45back. She was really the voice that said
02:47there's a number of things that we cannot
02:49agree. It's important that our destinies are intertwined,
02:52sure, but there are things we clearly
02:53don't see eye to eye. So she was very
02:55vocal to that extent. And there was a moment
02:57also in this panel, which
02:59hopefully we can put up on the screen. And I want
03:01to read to you. This was two
03:03obviously questions that we put about
03:05the sense of relief and the response to
03:07the Marco Rubio speech. And she said,
03:09contrary to what some may say,
03:11this woke, decadent Europe
03:13is not facing civilizational erasure.
03:15In fact, people still want
03:17to join our club and the waiting list is
03:19long. Meredith took three
03:21months for a European voice to finally
03:23say there is no civilizational
03:25erasure in Europe.
03:27One of the quotes that I get and one of the
03:29senses that I get from this conference,
03:31this is really the takeaway that I get from
03:33it, is that there are two competing versions
03:35now of the West. Who leads it?
03:37What the values of this West are? And also
03:39who's going to be the face
03:40of it? And at this point, I'm not really
03:42sure that they are fully aligned.
03:44Briefly, Maria Oncelensky, he was there.
03:46Ukraine had a big delegation at Munich.
03:48What did he achieve?
03:49Look, what did he achieve? This was a
03:51difficult Munich security conference for
03:53President Zelensky because, again, Ukraine,
03:55perhaps because of this confusion and
03:56commotion around
03:57the US and Europe, was not
03:59as dominant. And I've been to every
04:01edition as the past three years.
04:03He did say, however, we want to get the
04:06ceasefire, but it needs to happen before
04:07even we can go into serious
04:09negotiations. We need to see this form of
04:11ceasefire. And he also said, before we
04:13commit to a peace plan, we need to get
04:15those security guarantees.
04:16There was a question I put to him about
04:18EU membership. And he also said, we have
04:20to be technically ready by 2027
04:22because that is also a security
04:24guarantee. Let's take a look.
04:26Our membership in EU is the sore part of
04:31security guarantees. So we need, this is
04:35the package for us. One doesn't work with
04:37another because it's economical security
04:39guarantees with all respect to the United
04:42States and Europe. But if we will not have
04:44as a date in the document, I think that
04:47Russia will block our membership in
04:49future. And it will be the problem for
04:51all of us because they will do, they will
04:54use some other countries or by themselves
04:56because they don't want us to be in the EU.
04:59And that was, of course, a Ukrainian
05:01president. Two things are obvious at this
05:03point. One is they really want this date.
05:06They want to get it in a peace settlement
05:08and the European Union is going to have to
05:10get very creative to this.
05:12But the two are increasingly intertwined.
05:14This peace deal and this date, they have
05:16become now one.
05:17Maria, thank you so much for bringing us up
05:19to speed on everything from the Munich
05:20Security Conference. And to discuss all of
05:24this further, I'm glad to say we're joined
05:25now by Fabrice Portier, the CEO of
05:28Rasmussen Global, who previously also
05:30served as director of policy planning for
05:33the NATO alliance. Sir, welcome. It's great
05:35to have you on the show this morning.
05:36Now, I'd like to get your take first on
05:38Rubio's Munich speech. Were you reassured
05:41when he spoke of an intertwined destiny for
05:44the US and Europe? Or does Europe still need
05:47to realize it cannot do it alone and needs a
05:49plan B for its security?
05:52I would say it's probably both.
05:54There was clearly a feeling of calm before
05:57the next tempest, where obviously Rubio cast a
06:02tone that was much more friendly than the
06:05the previous US speaker at the previous MSC, J.D.
06:10Vance, who really kind of opened almost hostility
06:13against Europe. However, I think nobody was naive in
06:18thinking that this is not an olive branch. This is just a
06:21way to make the past few months a bit less painful. But
06:27clearly, the role ahead, as I mentioned, this is can't be for
06:30the next tempest because the role ahead is still made of many
06:34differences. I think Ukraine is still lurking very much around
06:38the corner in terms of big US, Europe, Ukraine difference. And
06:43Greenland is not completely, in a way, sold. And I think the
06:46Danish Prime Minister was pretty clear about that.
06:49And do you think Greenland could be the next storm? Because we
06:52heard from Mette Friedrichsen, the Danish Prime Minister over the
06:55weekend, suggesting Donald Trump is still very serious about
06:58buying the island. Do you agree with her that there's still a
07:01big risk there for the NATO alliance?
07:05Clearly, the problem is there's a mismatch between what the
07:09Danes, the Europeans are trying to do, which is to improve
07:12support to Greenland, both on the security and the economic
07:15front, which is a rational way of addressing possible vulnerabilities
07:21out there. And the US president just takes a very emotional,
07:26personal view that he just wants to own that piece of estate. He's
07:31thinking like a Manhattan real estate mogul. So he doesn't take a
07:36very rational approach to it. And that's the mismatch that I think
07:39the Danes are trying to manage with a diplomatic process, how long the
07:45diplomatic process is going to keep things together. This is the big
07:48question mark. I think we have to be ready for the next crisis. And
07:52clearly, the show of unity by the Europeans in addressing the US
07:56threat on Greenland worked once and may have to work another time, but
08:01we'll have to be willing to put even more skin in this game.
08:04You obviously shaped NATO policy for many years. Do you think there's a
08:09real crisis within the HQ here in Brussels? You know, we heard EU leaders,
08:14von der Leyen, talking about reactivating the EU's own defence clause over the
08:18weekend, seemingly because they cannot rely on NATO's Article 5. Is the NATO
08:23alliance, as we've known it for decades, now dead? It's gone?
08:26Well, I think it's not reactivating the EU mutual defence clause. It's making it
08:31real as a start because it's never been taken really seriously. But on your NATO
08:37question, I think we are entering the age of parallel universes where NATO is still
08:42going to be there. It's still a very much a valid option for the Europeans, both in
08:48terms of US extended nuclear deterrent, but also in terms of framework to plan and
08:54prevent the next war against Russia. However, clearly what you hear in the
08:59corridors, but also in the main hallway, is that we need to start thinking about
09:04Plan B's. And for that, you're going to have the European Union, but you also are going to have
09:09increasingly the development of coalitions, like the coalition of the willing for
09:15Ukraine, which maybe is going to be put with more substance, or some, the joint
09:20expeditionary force that is led by the UK. So I think you're going to have the
09:24multiplication of all these Plan B's in response to the fact that, answering your
09:28question, I think the US has introduced a very significant doubt as to its
09:33commitment to Europe via NATO. And therefore, NATO is still going to go on, but it's no
09:38longer the one and only Plan A.
09:41Fabrice Potier, that's all we have time for this morning, but thank you so much for coming
09:45on and joining us and sharing your insights. Now, as we mentioned there, the President of
09:50the European Commission said in Munich over the weekend that the EU needs to bring its own
09:55mutual defence clause to life, saying you change or you die. Our reporter, Jakob Yanis,
10:02has been scouring through the EU treaties in search of this little-known mutual defence clause.
10:10Did you know the EU has its own mutual defence clause? Your reporter didn't. But suddenly, it is the hottest
10:18topic in Europe.
10:19Just days ago, the head of NATO told Europe to keep dreaming if they think they can defend themselves without
10:26the US.
10:27But the EU Commission President fired back. Independent Europe just means let's develop our strength without constantly leaning on someone
10:35else.
10:36And part of her plan involves a little-known rule, the Article 42.7. So, what is it?
10:44It says if an EU country is attacked, all their members have an obligation to help. And on paper,
10:51the wording seems to be stronger than NATO's famous Article 5. It doesn't even require a unanimous vote to activate.
10:59But there is a catch. The EU is not a military alliance, and it lacks a unified command structure.
11:06And it leaves it up to each country to decide how to help, which does not automatically mean sending troops.
11:14And in fact, it has only been triggered once. After the 2015 Paris attacks. Plus, there is a trust gap.
11:23When Eastern European nations look for a true security shield, they look to NATO, not Brussels.
11:31But with Washington demanding Europe to take over its own conventional defense, and with growing doubts
11:37around the future of NATO, the clock is ticking. The EU is also wondering what happens if the US closes
11:46its nuclear umbrella over Europe. And building a fully independent European nuclear shield would cost
11:52billions of euros and take time. So Europe has the Treaty and the Article. Now it just
11:59must build the military strength to back it up.
12:07Jakob Janis reporting there. Now, as we just heard, European leaders are reigniting the debate on a
12:14common European nuclear umbrella amid the continued threats from Russia and eroding trust in the US.
12:22Joining me in the studio to explain more is our defense reporter Alice Tidy, also freshly back from Munich for
12:28us.
12:29Good morning. Alice, lots of Europeans talking about this over the weekend, the need for a
12:34common homegrown European nuclear deterrence. Why now?
12:39Well, basically, the Europeans, although they've gone to great length over the past week to say that
12:45they believe that the US is fully committed to NATO, that they believe it is committed today, tomorrow,
12:49that it will be in 10 years, that it will be in 20 years. There's still a lot of concerns
12:54over that
12:55commitment. I mean, remember that last year, Washington cast doubt over its commitment to Article 5. So
13:01Europeans responded by more than doubling their spending target within the alliance. And yet,
13:05this year, we had Trump saying that he would forcefully seize Greenland. So that cast a lot of
13:11doubts over the very existence of NATO. And obviously, the US has also said that he wants to pull back,
13:17but there's a lot of unsaid yet over how that partial pullback would happen and whether or not
13:22this could include the nuclear deterrent, right? So over the weekend, indeed, we had French President
13:28Emmanuel Macron announcing that he had held strategic dialogue with Chancellor Mertz on this topic,
13:34as well as with other EU leaders. He didn't name those other EU leaders. But we know,
13:40for instance, that the Latvian PM, Evika Selina, said that she would be open to that discussion.
13:47We also had the Polish president yesterday telling Polish media that he wants his armed forces to look
13:54into the nuclear potential. And I also spoke with the Finnish Defense Minister, Antti Hakkinen,
14:01on the sidelines of the conference, who said, and I quote here,
14:05inside NATO, it's clear that the US is ironclad committed to nuclear deterrence. It's good news
14:11if the European nuclear states are investing to build up even stronger nuclear capabilities.
14:16But to compensate the US, that's not the question now. So Finland would be open. But again,
14:22this European deterrent would have to complement the US and not compensate it.
14:28So it's clearly an idea gaining traction among European leaders. But at the same time, Alice,
14:33it's still very, very divisive, this question of nuclear rearmament. And we heard from the Spanish
14:38Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, clearly voicing some reservations about this.
14:43Yes, it did. Sánchez was at the Munich conference, and he made it clear he is not for nuclear rearmament.
14:48In fact, he said that the nuclear deterrence is far too costly, far too risky. It's a far
14:56too risky way of avoiding conflict. And he said that what it involves, the risks it involves,
15:01are actually more of a gamble than a guarantee for European security.
15:05Clearly still some divided opinions on that subject. But thank you so much
15:09for bringing us that update. Moving on now to something completely different. The Berlin Film
15:14Festival has only been running for a few days, yet already there is significant controversy over
15:20comments made by members of the jury. To explain, we can cross over now to Berlin,
15:25where our correspondent Laura Fleischmann is standing by for us, I believe. Laura,
15:30good morning. Bring us up to speed. What has been happening here?
15:37Well, at first, everything seemed to go smoothly at the Berlinale. But then a German journalist asked
15:43a question at a press conference with a jury of the festival. He accused them of what he called
15:49selective solidarity only with Iranians and Ukrainians, but not with Palestinians. And one of the festival's
15:57jurors then responded that there are many conflicts going on worldwide that don't get any attention at
16:03the festival either. But what really sparked controversy was the response by Wim Wenders.
16:08He is the president of the jury and a very famous German filmmaker. He said that the festival is a
16:15counterweight to politics. And this even led an Indian writer to pull out from the festival altogether.
16:21But let's see what Wim Wenders actually said at the press conference.
16:25We have to stay out of politics because if we made movies that are dedicatedly political,
16:37we enter the field of politics. But we are the counterweight to politics. We are the opposite of
16:43politics. We have to do the work of people and not the work of politicians.
16:48Yes. And Laura, it's also true to say that these film festivals, including the Berlinale,
16:55are usually highly political, very politically charged. Why the sudden change in tone here?
17:04Indeed, the Berlinale is known as a highly political film festival, and it still is.
17:09There are many political statements being made on the red carpet at press conferences.
17:14But the change in tone could be due to Germany's history, especially in regards to the Holocaust and
17:21in regards to World War II. Israel is a highly sensitive topic here in Germany. And this could
17:26be the reason why Wim Wenders is hesitant in regards to Palestine and in politics in general. But it could
17:33also be due to anti-Semitism being linked to some pro-Palestinian protests here in Germany. There are
17:40anti-Jewish chants, their anti-Jewish and anti-Israel signs at some protests that aren't against the
17:46government, but against the whole country's existence. So this could be a reason why movie
17:51makers and actors don't want to be linked to this topic, perhaps. And also, there has been a spike in
17:57anti-Semitism as of recently here in Germany. And the festival's director, Trisha Tuttle,
18:02even came out and supported Wim Wenders after the controversy. She said that it is, as of recently,
18:09oftentimes expected of movie makers and actors to make political statements. But they're mainly at
18:14the film festival to promote their work, their movies. They want to talk about what they did.
18:20They don't want to talk about politics, perhaps. And it is their right of free speech to talk about
18:25whatever they please. They can decide to not talk about politics, but they can also decide to talk
18:31about them. But they get criticized either way. That's what Trisha Tuttle said after the controversy
18:37broke loose. Laura, thank you so much for that update on the controversy surrounding the Berlinale
18:44Film Festival in Berlin. But that's it from us for today. We'll be back at the same time,
18:49same place tomorrow. In the meantime, if you want to read more about the stories we covered on today's
18:55show and all the other breaking news from Europe, remember to stay up to date on our website,
19:01Euronews.com. Thank you so much for tuning in and we hope to see you soon here on Euronews.
19:36you
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