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هي مكتبة رقمية تحتوي علي آلاف الفيديوهات العربية في جميع المجالات
It is a digital library containing thousands of Arabic videos in all fields.
قوائم تشغيل فسيلة
https://www.dailymotion.com/fasela/playlists
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LearningTranscript
00:00What's this? A luncheon meat sandwich with the spirit of a nuclear reactor's control system?
00:08No, by God, this isn't luncheon meat, it's a sandwich made with cottage cheese.
00:12We jumped from our place; the reactor was in very bad condition.
00:15Why is he in such a bad state? May God protect us from harm.
00:18Everything is perfect, so why did he hear a buzzing sound?
00:22Can you believe that buzzing sound? That's the sound of the reactor's fans.
00:25Fans? And do fans make a distress sound too?
00:28Sir, this is a reactor explosion drill.
00:31Like fire drills
00:33Honestly, that's not a bad idea at all.
00:35I'm sorry, Doctor, but you know, I'm not a reactor.
00:39I need to make sure the reactor is safe.
00:41Your right, Sat, the reactor
00:42But I want you to rest assured, put my whistle in the watermelon's belly.
00:45By God and by Malik, I swear
00:49This is a reactor that people will talk about and discuss.
00:52You'll see our reactor tomorrow
00:53Most reactor
00:55He is used as an example
00:57In security and safety
00:59Tomorrow's name of our reactor
01:00He will be the reference
01:02Nubian evildoer
01:05The sweetest words, I swear!
01:07What's that guy over there?
01:11One second
01:13This is a training exercise for a nuclear reactor explosion.
01:15No, that's the explosion itself.
01:20It's good that we trained
01:22That's how it is, Barso Beti
01:30My condolences to the viewers of Prayer and Blessing. Welcome to a new episode of the Al-Daheeh program.
01:33On April 26, 1986
01:35The world is waking up to a catastrophe, my dear.
01:38Oh God, protect us, Abu Hamad
01:39What happened?
01:40No, my dear, reactor number 4 at Chernobyl exploded.
01:42My dear Chernobyl, this is the biggest nuclear disaster in history.
01:46It's a disaster, my dear, that Chernobyl produced more radioactive emissions than Hori Shima.
01:52The one who threw a nuclear kiss at her four hundred times
01:54When you come, my dear, to see how this matter began?
01:56It turns out the issue started with a safety test
01:58Two words that indicate extreme caution
02:00What happened with them is unacceptable; it's a test and a safety measure.
02:03Safety
02:04My dear, this laboratory was where technicians were tested.
02:06They wanted to know how much power these turbines could generate; how much power they could hold in a self-fracturing reactor using Energia.
02:11Specifically, during the period between the pilot's failure and the activation of the backup generator.
02:16In this country, we want to know how long these engines can keep running without an external power source.
02:21Until we surrender to the alternative need
02:23Do you understand the idea?
02:24It's a simple test, my dear.
02:25But the problem is that it's a very complex facility.
02:28Let me explain to you, my dear, how a reactor actually works as a power plant.
02:32In neutron reactors, uranium atoms are scattered.
02:35Uranium atoms come together like this, humming in themselves
02:37Tom, cut it in half.
02:38Here, my dear, when uranium atoms split in two, they begin to release other neutrons.
02:42The second set of neutrons begins to split other uranium atoms.
02:45This, my dear, is known as the infiltration reaction.
02:48The reaction generates heat
02:50It generates heat that turns water into steam.
02:52Steam powers the turbines
02:53Turbines provide electricity
02:55Of course, my dear, you're thinking, "What is this?"
02:57But what if this reaction continues sequentially and keeps growing until it creates a kiss of longing?
03:01Here, my dear, we put the brakes
03:03The brakes here, my friend, are actually control rods that absorb neutrons.
03:08This helps technicians control the pace of the reaction.
03:11Which is, no, calmer interaction, safer.
03:14This, my dear, is how scientists control their numbers and the degree of their descent into the reactor core.
03:17The problem, my dear, is that back when the technicians were performing this test
03:20They will make a series of fatal mistakes.
03:22They will lower the power level of the reactor.
03:24The instructions tell us, guys
03:26Do not let the power supply fall below 700 megawatts.
03:29They didn't lower it to just under 700, my dear.
03:32No, they lowered it for two
03:34A mistake that will lead to a rapid accumulation of diffusion products
03:37And among them, my dear, is xenon gas.
03:40Normally, what burns out when the reactor is running is used to complete its energy cycle.
03:43But my dear, we're using this test for this exam.
03:46The xenon began to accumulate
03:48The problem, my dear, is when this xenon light starts to accumulate.
03:51It starts absorbing more neutrons
03:54The reactor slows down more and more
03:56The slowness means the cause of the accumulation
03:58And the accumulation increased the acceleration
04:00The acceleration increased the accumulation
04:01They prefer, my dear, those who criticized it, like the two barbers in front of each other.
04:04And this, my dear, was one of the flaws in the design of the Soviet reactor.
04:08RBMK
04:09To my dear friend, the technicians are now only able to work at a power of 30 megawatts.
04:13For a reactor with a capacity of 1000 megawatts
04:16The reactor here, my dear, will shut down.
04:17And he will get into something called xenon poisoning
04:20Zenoun Bouiznin
04:21We need to get to the reactor, guys.
04:23The Soviet situation is slipping away from me
04:24Here we'll think that in order to conquer the world, we need to increase the power and remove the control poles.
04:29We'll remove the valve we had with us
04:31The problem is that this will happen to a greater extent than the permitted instructions allow.
04:35The xenon that had accumulated and slowed the reaction was a surprise
04:39Life stirred within him and he began to burn very quickly.
04:41And suddenly the reactor became extremely, extremely, extremely fast
04:43Fast like this, Abu Hamina, not a little bit, imagine the shehli is even faster
04:45Look, my dear, in order for it to happen, my dear
04:46For a chain reaction to occur, my dear, we need to reach a suitable neutron speed.
04:50If it's too slow or too fast, it won't be able to split the grain.
04:53The speed of neutrons is called
04:56In the design of the Soviet reactor
04:58Without water, my dear
05:00Most neutrons have a normal speed.
05:02That is, if the neutrons move to go and hit the uranium atom
05:06Split it, divide it into two halves without water
05:08The speed remains excellent and accurate.
05:10And the splitting is quick, sweet, and perfect.
05:12My dear, when there is water, the water slows down the speed of neutrons.
05:15So, it leaves a respectable proportion of these neutrons
05:17Slower than the speed required for fission to occur
05:20Therefore, the water here maintains the fission rate at the required level.
05:25As you say, my dear, the water is acting like a valve.
05:28It adjusts to a certain speed that you want to travel at.
05:31In our story, my dear, in Ternopil
05:33When the fission rate increased, something strange happened.
05:36Oh Abu Hamid, the water evaporated so quickly
05:38It turned into steam in very large quantities
05:40The pharma you want is to reduce the fission that occurs.
05:44The rest evaporated
05:45So the neutrons remained crazy
05:47Its workers are confused and confused about uranium.
05:50Bukhari Azizi is described as a void
05:53A vacuum allows neutrons to move quickly in order to split the atom.
05:57And just as I possess more fission, my dear, it means more water.
06:00More water means more vapor, more void or emptiness.
06:04This means neutrons splitting more uranium atoms.
06:07This smell, my dear, is heard in the reactor.
06:09Positive Void Copulation
06:11Cycle was decided upon so recklessly that the reactor went out of control
06:14According to Hans Beth, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist
06:17The reason for the first carnage was the design of the Chernobyl reactor.
06:19The design of the RBMK is problematic
06:21Some consider it fancimental volti
06:24It's not the people's fault, it's the fault of the person who made the design.
06:26The design is based on falsehood because it is unstable.
06:29Because he didn't take into account human error in operation.
06:32That's why my dear Hans Bath says that this disaster exposes the atheistic policies of the Soviet Union.
06:36It exposes the dangers of nuclear energy more than anything else.
06:38This is because the real reason was negligence in the design.
06:41The employees are afraid that they will go to their section and report the problems that are happening.
06:45On another note, my dear Soviet scientist Valery Legasov
06:48A man who was from Ahor in the Chernobyl series
06:50He sees it, my dear, in the TV series "Hala"
06:52This is according to our Soviet teacher, Valery Legasov
06:54This man, my dear, presented the Chernobyl approximation to the Atomic Energy Agency.
06:57He will admit that there is a problem with the reactor.
07:00The problem with the design is that it didn't anticipate the clumsy actions of the people who would be operating the reactor.
07:05Nor could they possibly take such stupid, consecutive readings against even the safety rules in place at Chernobyl.
07:12My dear, there are two angles from which we can look at the Chernobyl disaster.
07:15The first angle is that it happened because of the corruption and failure of the Soviet Union.
07:21This is obviously a good thing, given the chaotic atmosphere in which any technician is hesitant to report a problem.
07:25Or he may ask for help or stop a dangerous test
07:27My dear, that's a correct angle regarding the money. The second angle, my dear, is that the design flaws were known.
07:32And all the mistakes that occurred were in the operating manual, which told the technician not to do them.
07:37But my dear, you know very well that human error is worse when it's controlled.
07:40It's possible to adjust all the conditions, refine your design, and create a comprehensive operating manual.
07:44But you will still face a unique sequence of unexpected events.
07:50And unexpected human stupidity
07:52Your bet on humanity is your bet on disaster.
07:55We don't value ourselves as human beings
07:57He made equipment for me that wouldn't even allow me to make mistakes.
08:00In this type of need, there is no place for human work.
08:03Serhan Neman still has problems at home until we all die
08:06In summary, my dear, we have two points of view on this subject.
08:09From an administrative perspective, such as the Soviet Union's approach
08:11An artistic perspective with a design flaw
08:13To be honest, my dear, as a prospective strategic expert
08:15I see that there are two points of view, each with its own perspective.
08:17But firstly, if we eliminate the mistakes and corruption
08:20Everything will be fine
08:21But in the other corner, my dear, the world will be more suspicious.
08:23This is because if we believe it, it would mean that no matter what precautions we take...
08:27Life is full of surprises; we might be taken by surprise by a series of unexpected events.
08:30It's not just bigger than our ability to deal with it.
08:32But it is greater than our ability to predict when it will happen.
08:35In the other corner, my dear, human mistakes happen randomly.
08:41It's hard to predict what will happen.
08:43The problem, my dear, is that there is a second opinion.
08:45The opinion that tells you that he
08:47I have to rely on people
08:48Any problem could arise when relying on humans
08:50So here it becomes very difficult for us to answer the question with certainty.
08:53Could the Chernobyl disaster have been prevented?
08:55No
08:56Question 1
08:57They say, "Yes, the government is corrupt. What if we changed the government?"
08:59Our duty is to find better people who would have created a better design.
09:01They would bring in people who weren't afraid to criticize them.
09:04But the problem with the second itch is that he tells you
09:06Humans are weak and they are weak
09:07There's always room for error.
09:09space for the archer
09:10Space for Black Swans
09:12Honestly, if you want my opinion on something, my friend
09:14I see that Hans Beth's man
09:16Those who won the Nobel Prize device
09:17If he was the one in charge of the reactor
09:18She was giving me her art.
09:19And he wasn't getting anything
09:20Because this is a Nobel Prize-winning device and he understands physics.
09:22And what he knew was that experience is the most important thing.
09:24Okay, my dear, I want you to hold onto some opinions.
09:26I'll go in and come back to you. See what happens. What's your exact opinion?
09:281997, my dear
09:30The Nobel Prize in Economics is shared by three scientists.
09:34And that, my dear, is because they presented a brilliant mathematical model for investment.
09:38My dear, the model is called Black-Scholes Merton.
09:41This, my dear, was very good news for a company called LTCM.
09:44for him?
09:45Because two of those who won the award were among its founders
09:48Mr. Scholes and Mr. Merton
09:50My dear friend, the company whose investments are managed by Nobel laureates in exploitation has entered the market.
09:54The company was of course successful
09:55Its profits in three years reached 41%
09:58In a market where, my dear, the average profit was barely 10%
10:01Well, that's exactly what I've been saying from the beginning, Abu Hamad.
10:03Those with experience and Nobel Prizes can handle the situation and fix it.
10:07That's why, Abu Hamad, I have objections to your presence in this program.
10:10Because you are not an expert
10:11Lighter
10:12Stay focused first, then you and I can talk.
10:14Look, my dear, when my uncle made you, he instilled two qualities in you.
10:16First, you are coffee
10:17Secondly, you are envious.
10:19And your eye is buying uranium
10:20Let me tell you, my dear, that within four months
10:23A company with investments worth $2.3 billion
10:26Cam remained indebted by $100 billion
10:29Buhamad entrusted the Nobel Prize to him
10:31This chair, my dear, made the Federal Reserve Bank of New York personally intervene to save it.
10:35You see, my dear Nobel, it didn't turn out to be working as you saw it.
10:37What we saw here, my dear, is that experts like this didn't expect a chair
10:41Of course, Abu Hamad, why don't we interpret this as bad luck?
10:43The truth, my dear, is that we can certainly interpret it as bad luck.
10:45But my dear, some people describe what happened at the reactor and at the company as a black swan.
10:52In one of his poems, the Roman poet Juvenal describes a beautiful and wealthy wife as a black swan.
10:59Why? Because it possesses all the qualities, and that's extremely rare, as rare as a black swan.
11:05This analogy would become a proverb in 16th-century London, used to describe something impossible to exist.
11:10But at the end of the 17th century, in 1697, the Qurbini, my dear, will see a black swan for the first time.
11:17They will be on an expeditionary ship in Australia and will be confronted with the simple logical truth
11:22Just because you've only ever seen a white swan in your life isn't enough proof that black swans don't exist.
11:29Hamad, we get confused. What does a swan have to do with disasters?
11:31What's up, my dear? It means you're being difficult with me.
11:35Lebanese-American statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the books *My Dear* and *The Black Swan*.
11:39The book that was released in 2007, before the global crisis of 2008
11:43So people, I mean, I said, "What is this? You're going to get bald? Oh, this is a fool! Oh, this is the one who predicted the events of the global economic crisis!"
11:48My dear Nassim, he will use the term "black swan" to describe random, rare, and hugely impactful events.
11:54These, my dear, are events that are difficult to imagine and difficult to predict except after they have occurred.
12:05We've experienced it before, but our imagination and thinking can't grasp things we haven't seen yet.
12:10So, my dear, these things have an impact on me, and we consider them rare occurrences.
12:13My dear friend, the problem here is complex; we are unable to predict the events of the Black Swan.
12:18And we don't even notice this deficiency. Well, Abu Ahmed, I have no idea. We'll see.
12:23How many black swans have appeared throughout history, and how can we place them in a statistical model?
12:27So we can predict the occurrence of black swan events, and thus we know the probability of their occurrence.
12:34Rare events that are not expected to occur
12:37I'll surprise you and tell you, my dear, that this is the past, the past is ancient.
12:42Here, my dear, is my response to your statement that this is precisely the definition of a black swan: after you've accounted for everything, something new always appears that you hadn't considered.
12:52Even if you're taking something into account that you don't know about, it can still happen because that's the very definition of a black swan.
12:58It's something, my dear, that will always happen when you least expect it, and you'll never be in the party.
13:03If you were to examine all the events of the Black Swan, my dear, you would find exceptions that shatter the whole narrative.
13:07Let me, my dear, leave this program and get an exclusive license.
13:10Statistics, or the science of statistics itself, might be the problem.
13:14This, my dear, is a statement made on personal responsibility.
13:16If you're wrong, I'll make you pay, my friend. I'll deny it and say that's what the sources say.
13:20And he denied your presence, looking and intending to shine, my dear.
13:22If you look at the events of "The Swan," you'll find it's always an exception that disrupts the norm.
13:26This makes me ask the question: how is the seating arrangement actually formed?
13:29The topic is easy
13:30I will observe an event that occurs with a certain frequency.
13:32I observe this repetition and deduce from it a general rule that applies to the remaining cases.
13:36As we learned, with just one glance, the body works
13:39You don't need to explain all of humanity for me to operate on you.
13:42This, my dear, is called induction.
13:45And on that note, they rejected philosophers like Aristotle, who was opposed to scientific experimentation.
13:49Scientific experimentation remains a source of the rules that emerge from it.
13:51And she responded, my dear, by insulting Aristotle and calling him an old-fashioned man whose fanfare is expired.
13:55And VanSafte Expired, let me tell you that yes, Aristotle's principle has greatly hindered science.
13:59As we saw in the episode about Francis Bacon
14:00But induction undoubtedly has problems.
14:03My dear Hali, I have a creature from Reich who came down to Earth and wants to teach us.
14:06Love gathers information from which it creates general rules about humanity.
14:09For example, he knows the average weight of a human being.
14:12Farah Mukhtar selected several random people and their weights
14:14It was found that the average human weight is approximately 75 kilograms.
14:17If we brought him, my dear, the most pious of men
14:19According to the encyclopedia of sex, his weight reached 635 kg
14:22We added it to the thousand people that Al-Ahsa'i deals with
14:25At that point, my dear average weight will increase from 75 kilos to 75.5 kilos.
14:30The difference here, my dear, isn't that big.
14:31Here, the Martian man will be reassured that this average can be a sitting position.
14:35It's possible, no matter how much you soften towards him and no matter how much he changes.
14:38Then this Martian, if he loves, will calculate the average human income.
14:41He will choose a thousand human beings
14:42This will bring the average to approximately $8,700 per year.
14:46But if we brought him the richest person on the planet
14:48Elon Musk's annual income in Egypt
14:50It could reach $80 billion
14:52We added it to this party
14:54Suddenly, my dear Al-Ahsa'i, you'll be attacked by us.
14:56The study will be in July because its average hour is [time missing].
14:58It will exceed $80 million
15:00And here's the question
15:02Adding one person to the weight statistics doesn't mean anything.
15:04The average number didn't change much.
15:06But when we added one person to the income statistics
15:12By suddenly, the average
15:14Here, my dear, in both cases, we can now use ponieważ
15:16Induction in the realms of nature
15:18And its laws, because the differences in it, however great, increase
15:19No, I envy the most precious person in the world.
15:22The day he arrived, and I was still in the process of reducing
15:24That's a big number, of course, but
15:26Using induction is virtually impossible
15:28In the humanities, it would be impossible because of the differences
15:30The possible figures remain very large.
15:32Many, for example in economics, rely on the natural distribution.
15:34Normal Distribution
15:36This, my dear, is one of the most famous methods of statistics.
15:38Which controls the distribution of many things
15:40The most common are height or weight
15:42In a normal distribution, the standard deviation is limited.
15:44Do you see the tiles?
15:46By God, please don't take it personally
15:48What is standard deviation?
15:50Because the deviation he deviated from was a genuine deviation.
15:52It doesn't have a standard, so can you explain it to me?
15:54This standard deviation, my dear, tells you that when we have many numbers
15:56Approximately how far is this from the average?
15:58If we apply this to height, for example, we will find that most people are of average height.
16:01And the tallest person in the world doesn't stretch much beyond this average.
16:04This distribution, my dear, is countered by another distribution that governs the humanities.
16:07It's called Power Law
16:08This distribution gives us a picture with a huge difference between the largest and smallest things.
16:12For example, there is a linguist named George Zeff
16:14This describes the distribution of word occurrences in the language.
16:16Nor is the difference in word usage rates between the two languages enormous.
16:21For example, if we measured the most frequently used words in the language
16:25And the fourth most frequently used word in the same language
16:27This difference, my dear, can reach one hundred percent.
16:30There is a significant gap between the centers, some of which are quite large.
16:32This applies to all languages, my friend.
16:34Not a specific language
16:35Disaster strikes, my dear, when we mix this with that.
16:37Why do we use the normal distribution in the humanities?
16:39In the humanities, there are significant differences and gaps, as we have seen.
16:42Or we use Powerlow in the natural sciences
16:44The difference in averages is small
16:46Let me give you an example, my dear
16:47Muhammad, I'm not giving an example.
16:48Don't try to taste doubt
16:49Is doubt bothering you about something, my dear?
16:50It doesn't just mean friends, like that example.
16:52Mameesh, is it possible, my dear, to ignite the conflict and let us finish watching the episode?
16:55So expand, my dear, if human height could take on the powerhouse
16:58Three-quarters of humans are less than 25 centimeters tall.
17:01She still carries office supplies with her.
17:02Whereas if we rely on the normal distribution
17:04In the humanities, social sciences, or economics
17:06We'll wear a black dress that Ahmed Zaher didn't wear in Mohamed Sami's series.
17:10We'll be like a sheep that sees a butcher feeding it every day.
17:13He resolves matters with his body and is reassured.
17:15Since the butcher feeds me every day
17:16So he'll keep eating me every day.
17:18He'll keep eating me
17:19Here, my dear sheep, he will see a phenomenon in front of him and analyze it.
17:21But he'll overlook it because he's covered up and doesn't know it.
17:24It is that we are in the late stages of the Zalqadah.
17:26And in "Labbayk Allahumma Labbayk" (Here I am, O Allah, here I am) I am coming from afar
17:29If only, my dear, the sheep were strong enough for these things
17:32He will have a completely different theory from what happened in the past.
17:35But you know very well that Mashahla will analyze it
17:37Why, my dear? Because today is the day of Arafah.
17:39But he used to eat me every day
17:40He never tried to flirt with me before
17:41The mistake here, my dear, is using induction in the humanities.
17:44Meaning that we rely on what we have seen in the past.
17:46So that we can anticipate what's coming next
17:48And from what we saw, which is as private shops
17:50I can deduce the general rule
17:51The mistake, my dear, is that if we saw just one incident
17:53You will be able to make the huge difference that will overturn all calculations.
17:56It allows you to build knowledge and wisdom, but retroactively.
17:59If we go back to LCM company, my dear
18:01We'll find that Blackscholes Millson's dealings did one of the things I'm telling you were wrong
18:06I applied the standard deviation of the normal distribution
18:09Therefore, I assumed that something like the rise or fall of stocks would increase or decrease in a specific timeframe, most likely
18:15As I told you, my dear, the economic visitors are governed by what is called power.
18:19What happens is that there are no limits to how much things can go up or down.
18:23Anything is possible, and every value could change in ways unforeseen, affecting everything that came before.
18:29Therefore, my dear, their model was unable to predict extreme events and their impact.
18:33In the case of LCM, it was a sequence of events that were difficult to predict.
18:37For example, an economic crisis prevented Russia from paying its debts in its local currency.
18:41This, my dear, is a rare occurrence because any country would prefer to keep its own money to be able to pay off its debts.
18:47Al-Hamid, my dear, they all gathered together and destroyed their marriage company in four months, based on suspicion.
18:52Currently, three people have won the Nobel Prize in Economics.
18:54But countries don't know how to use the standard deviation of Powerlow in economics.
18:59And do you know when this is used and when that is used?
19:01My dear, anything you print the powerhouse on will become depressed because you won't be able to control it.
19:07A possible element in PowerLo can equal infinity.
19:10Meaning there are no limits because these things can be worrying or alarming
19:13That's infinity, my dear. If you enter a mathematical equation, you'll destroy it.
19:16This is because anything multiplied by it equals infinity.
19:19Anything divided by equals a row
19:21In other words, my dear, if they include Powerlow deviation, their equation will evaporate.
19:24Because they can't make decisions that feel like they're being controlled.
19:27Powerlo, my dear, brings poverty to equations
19:29Economists are forced to use the normal distribution and its deviations.
19:33Simply because that's what's available, even if what's available is far from reality.
19:36You are always ready to do anything in the future in the world of economics
19:40You must study the past, and the past is a complex issue.
19:42Hamad, allow me to take you by the hand and return to the question, "Who is Fandy?"
19:45Where are my things? I'm being recruited, and I have a very serious question about Zakat now.
19:48Why are there even phenomena governed by normal distribution?
19:51If we gave someone a ruler and he could measure the length of dozens of objects
19:58Therefore, at least a small degree of error must appear in its measurements.
20:02The question here is whether this error percentage conforms to the normal distribution.
20:05And what about the power function?
20:06Let me tell you, my dear, about random flowers that are not connected to each other.
20:09It is governed by the natural distribution
20:10Each time we measure the length of the ruler's body
20:12It is truly separate from everything that came before it and everything that will come after it.
20:15The error rate in the first measurement does not affect the error rate in the subsequent measurement.
20:19The problem with the humanities is that everyone listens to everyone else.
20:22In economics, for example, you usually notice that money makes money.
20:25The more money you have, the more you can invest it in more projects.
20:29Therefore, you earn more, and therefore you can invest more, and so on.
20:33There is ongoing feedback regarding the phenomenon of the image
20:35Similarly, my dear, you will notice that a city that is founded in a temperate location
20:38As a climate, it means faces that, over time, can attract people, thus creating a market of consumers.
20:43It attracts traders and companies, creating jobs.
20:45The city's main shopping destination is a major consumer market.
20:47Any phenomenon involving feedback is governed by the distribution of power.
20:51And feedback means, my dear, that the increase in the number we are measuring, whether it is the swarm or the population, is a sign of growth.
20:55This increase leads to further increases.
20:58Social or economic blame is full of gems that fit the description of feedback.
21:03Its appearance in statistics, in reality, is an inherent characteristic of the powerhouse.
21:06The second characteristic is that these flowers make predicting the fool extremely difficult.
21:10Who would imagine that a small amount of money could turn into millions through a series of investments?
21:15Or that the migration of a small number of people transforms an empty desert into a giant city
21:18This, my dear, is a key factor in the success of Black Swans
21:21These are phenomena where several factors combine and intensify in a way that is difficult to predict.
21:26A simple event, whether it's a happy one like building a city, or a scary one like a safety test in a nuclear reactor.
21:32This, through a succession of factors, transforms into something gigantic.
21:35These phenomena, my dear, are described as complex systems.
21:39The science that studies it is complexity science.
21:42My name, my dear, is fitting for all this difficulty.
21:45My dear friend, we are faced with signs proving that even riyals, as a symbol, can be used for purposes other than research.
21:49In a moment, my dear, you'll get a device
21:50Our inability, dear reader, to use the Power Law distribution in mathematical models
21:54It's not a problem with my economics alone, but not on their own.
21:57This is a problem for any science that is subject to the distribution of power law.
22:00Anything described as a complex system
22:03Complex Systems, such as the flaws of humanity, climate, and biological systems.
22:08All of these, my dear, are complex systems.
22:10Therefore, we need to find something else to study besides mathematics.
22:13Something else like what? Something else like computer simulation.
22:16Simulation
22:17So the solution here, my friend, is in the simulation, which we can't predict, we talk about.
22:22And in the simulation, there's nothing better than a computer.
22:24If you, my dear, don't understand, let me give you an example from the world of Thomas Schelling.
22:27The man wanted to highlight a non-sporting human phenomenon, such as racial segregation.
22:32He wrote a program in which human actors were depicted in shades of blue and red.
22:35And they were placed randomly in squares like dice
22:37And the man set a simple rule
22:39The general rule is that anyone would be happy if they were surrounded by two people similar to themselves.
22:43At least two of his neighbors will be the same type.
22:45The blue one always likes to have at least two of his neighbors who are the same color as him, blue.
22:50Here, my dear, the computer will perform endless cycles.
22:52In each round, a person will be chosen at random.
22:54If he's happy, he'll leave it where it is.
22:56If not, he'll put it anywhere empty, randomly.
22:58And I wish, my dear, that the rule was very simple and very good
23:02I just want to sit with at least two people like him.
23:05But the end result, my dear, was racial segregation.
23:07The red ones clump together, and the blue ones clump together in large clumps.
23:11This, my dear, is an old example from the sixties that simulates human behavior using a computer.
23:16Current simulation models are significantly more complex.
23:19And in it, my dear, are scientific proofs that it is much better in another study.
23:23Complex systems are better than what, my friend? Better than mathematics.
23:27From the same sports
23:28Sefi Hon Frami, my dear, will discuss this in a book called "Very Expressive".
23:31The book is called A New Kind of Science
23:33A new type of science
23:34Ahmed asked me about sports? Does that mean she'll paralyze the king?
23:37I'm talking about sports, Ahmed.
23:38No, my dear, you won't get it from the curriculum.
23:41Because right now, mathematics is the best thing available, studied, and mastered.
23:44Computer simulation is as advanced as it is.
23:46It's still learning to walk.
23:48Musab, we're working on it now.
23:49Mohammed, no problem, Hans, a question
23:50I feel like it's difficult to meet a black swan in my life
23:53I am a simple person
23:54So I tell you, my dear, that the events of the Black Swan, from her perspective
23:57These are the events that drive history.
23:58Wars and scientific experiments, for example
24:00Very rare events
24:01But these are the events that shaped the world.
24:03And they got sick, something we didn't expect could happen.
24:05For example, in the 20th century, did you expect that two world wars could happen?
24:09For example, in the midst of the advanced medical technology we have,
24:11A global pandemic is expected to shut down the planet almost for two years.
24:15Did you expect the invention of the internet?
24:17And its effects that change your perception and perspective of the world every day
24:21Even if we leave aside the great history and delve into your personal life, my dear
24:24I expect you'll find a black swan
24:26My dear friend, everyone has experienced very rare events in their life that shaped who they are today.
24:30For example, a person met his mother by chance and became his lifelong friend.
24:32It could also be your life partner
24:34It might be the job that came to you from the furthest reaches of the earth
24:36Everyone has an unexpected event.
24:38But it greatly influenced his life
24:40The war that may have happened
24:41The epidemic that may have occurred
24:43My dear, some people got divorced from Corona and are now broke.
24:45Some famous people got divorced because of Corona
24:47Okay, Abu Hamad, we know the black swan is involved in everything.
24:49We also learned that I couldn't predict it.
24:51Using current statistics and mathematics
24:53And your simulation science is
24:55They still love me, how should I act now? What should I do?
24:57To protect myself from the black swan or to take advantage of it
24:59My dear, I was telling you about the Shire incident.
25:01Towing brakes
25:03Abu Hamad says the swan moves our lives and we can't predict it.
25:05She tells the train brakes, "My dear, listen to me."
25:07The towing brakes operate using air pressure.
25:09When the train stops
25:11A valve opens, and the pressurized air escapes.
25:13This compressed air pressurizes the brakes.
25:15He'll stop the wheels, but what will happen?
25:17If this compressed air hose breaks
25:19The train won't stop, and you know what happens if the train doesn't stop.
25:21What will happen? I have an idea, Abu Hamad.
25:23We can put two spare hoses in, okay, my friend?
25:25If you malfunction the air compressor
25:27Abu Hamad also has the same solution; we can add two spare compressors.
25:29What's wrong, my dear? You can't get two of everything.
25:31Your comments are about Qatar, not about Hossam Ibrahim.
25:33I want you to grind the net right now, my dear
25:35And abandon this way of thinking for the sake of the sheep.
25:37Contrary to what we learned from the black swans
25:39I will try to predict future events that are similar to what happened in the past.
25:41And I'm taking precautions now.
25:43The black swans dreamed that this
25:45He might escape, and if he does escape, it's possible
25:47A terrible need
25:49Failure will come to you from somewhere
25:51You can't stand her
25:53So, my dear, the train brakes work in the opposite way to what we said.
25:55It has a spring that constantly presses the towing brake against the wheels.
25:57When the train's engine starts and operates
25:59compressed air pump
26:01The zipper is decorated.
26:03The brakes are positioned away from the wheels, causing them to move.
26:05In this design, when the water carrier wants to stop the train
26:07It doesn't direct air towards the brakes.
26:09This cuts off the air supply to the brakes.
26:11Therefore, my dear, if any failure occurs
26:13In a compressed air system, for example
26:15The hose is cut or the pump is broken.
26:17The train will stop here because of the alternative
26:19Qatar is going recklessly, without brakes, my friend.
26:21Take whatever precautions you like, but in
26:23This modified design failed the system.
26:25This means the train has stopped.
26:27An incident does not necessarily have to occur here.
26:29It would be the worst possible scenario.
26:31My dear, you're not betting on success.
26:33You're betting on failure
26:35We are absolutely certain that the braking system will fail.
26:37But we don't know how
26:39Because, my dear, there are so many reasons
26:41We wanted to see something happen, but the outcome we feared was not what we hoped for.
26:43Their number is limited; the braking system failed.
26:45We're betting on failure, but we'll try.
26:47Let's make it a safe failure
26:49Oh, Qatar brakes, stop!
26:51The incident involved a pedestrian arriving without brakes.
26:53In engineering, we call this...
26:55Elephant Saif Design
26:57Design safe from failure
26:59If you don't understand what I said, my dear, let me give you an example from what Al-Jassar said.
27:01Al-Jassar said, "My dear, the first one to apply..."
27:03Elephant Saif Design
27:05He assumed that we were going to separate anyway.
27:07We found the reasons for the Infiniti breakdown.
27:09He started the song, my dear, let the furs be.
27:11The most beautiful fur in the depths of love
27:13And anyway, there will be fur, so let's make it the most beautiful fur in the realm of love.
27:16We plan from now on and take that into account
27:18So that I don't get shocked in front of me
27:19Okay, my dear, what happened was that he didn't actually spread the fur.
27:21Honestly, my dear, the man wasn't rich, I just left.
27:23People are strange, the world is strange, and forgive me on your wedding day.
27:25I couldn't be as happy as they were
27:27And the least Jassar reached the elephant, Saif Design, after 4 deaths and a single
27:29In two senses, my dear, we talked about picking
27:31We're not talking about the plane yet.
27:33Oh Narishoud, they are with the pilots, Abu Ahmed
27:35Debt from failure
27:37Yes, and luckily for you and me, the plane is going to crash.
27:39There's a possibility of a problem on any plane, my dear.
27:41Any increase in engine power
27:43Or winds coming in the opposite direction to the plane.
27:45It is possible that it will be lifted
27:47The plane's nose is a little lanky
27:49This increase, my dear, has an impact
27:51On a dangerous thing called the Angel of Attack
27:53The angle between the wing of the airplane
28:01Any increase in strength
28:03The engine's thrust is not raising its nose
28:05The plane is more than a small percentage
28:07Safe design, the world is sweet, a beautiful world
28:09Let's fly!
28:11You'll stay like this, my dear, until you come.
28:13Boeing 737 Max
28:15It comes with a new design
28:17This design, my dear, makes the engine boost
28:19The plane's nose is raised
28:21A little more than usual, two or three
28:23Boeing, my dear, you've ruined this design.
28:25There are many reasons related to profits.
28:27Reducing costs
28:29In this new situation, the more the engine pushes
28:31He will raise the nose of the plane by that amount
28:33Bigger than the one before it, and so on and so forth.
28:35She struggles intensely until she reaches
28:37The angle of attack is critical, my friend.
28:39The one I'm telling you about, my dear, here
28:41The plane is crashing and this
28:43Feedbeck is a killer, a complex system.
28:45Everything that increases in it
28:47The angle of attack can increase as it grows.
28:49More and more like Powerlo
28:51Musim Sai, a monster called a "flying monster".
28:53With dynamic stability and unique flights
28:55Those who are allowed to fly in this situation
28:57These are warplanes, and my dear friend, they are safe.
28:59It has a button that can eject the pilot.
29:01And a parachute that he uses to descend during a disaster
29:03Booming and blocking a problem like this
29:05A complex system that has a killer backdoor in it.
29:07The system relies on a sensor present in all aircraft.
29:09Sensor Bees Angle of Attack
29:11And the aircraft's computer programmed that if the angle of attack increased
29:14And I'm the best pilot, I'm going up
29:15The computer will prepare the airplane mode with difficulty.
29:18The problem, my dear, is that the plane's sensor
29:20It's not always about trust.
29:21Very easy, it gives a false reading for the smallest variable
29:23For example, blood pressure imbalance
29:25Normally there are two sensors for angle of attack
29:27So that the pilot can assess the situation
29:29If one of the two sensors is malfunctioning
29:31If the two readings were to be presented together
29:33So put the autopilot
29:35The computer here tells him to wear clothes
29:36Take it, man, and put your trust in God.
29:38I'm going to submit my account to evaluate the Angel of Attack.
29:40I am a dominant man
29:41I don't know anything in the world except 0-01-01, I repeat it.
29:43You're the pilot, so explain it to me.
29:44In the new Azizi Sesame of Bowen
29:46The computer is the one that receives feedback from only one sensor.
29:49He also acts without consulting the plane.
29:51So when the sensor gives a wrong reading
29:53For example, the violence of the plane increased
29:54He will forcefully point the aircraft's nose downwards.
29:56So that you, my dear, will find the plane crashing
29:58The pilot tries to correct it, but to no avail.
30:00Because he doesn't understand what's happening.
30:01I don't understand how Ahmed and Tar are electric.
30:03I'm not studying inside
30:04Hey, dear, Boeing didn't authorize the pilots
30:06With this new option
30:07They no longer had a chance to stop him.
30:09We're not going to spend money on additional pilot training anymore.
30:11Enough with the company's land that's going towards beef and chicken.
30:14And the chickens and the vegetarian group that came up with these countries
30:17There are two ways, my dear, to look at the Boeing disaster.
30:20The first approach you see as Boeing's mistake was relying on one sensor instead of two to improve decision-making.
30:25And I made a mistake when I didn't train the pilots on the new option.
30:28It means neglect, corruption, and saving
30:31Secondly, Boeing has removed itself from a design that lacks a complex, passive system.
30:36I emerged from a design that was inherently secure in itself.
30:39To design his safety system, Amy applied it to both machines and humans in a way that would send anyone who made a mistake straight to the black box.
30:45So here, my dear, is the failure stemming from Black Swan's intuition; no one expects it, as usual.
30:49Black Swan combines the failure of the machine between the two sensor sections with the failure of humans between the two Boeing sections.
30:55With the software failure, only one sensor's information was used.
30:58And then, my dear, the result was the crash of two planes and the death of more than 500 people.
31:02Here, my dear, I'll take you on a dramatic turn to what we talked about in the first episode.
31:06Come, my dear, let me take you by the hand and we'll go back to the Chernoby reactor.
31:09The question we started the episode with was: Could we have prevented the disaster?
31:14Nuclear reactor designs rely on safe failure.
31:17When the reaction rate gets out of control
31:19These, my dear, are Under Moderated reactors.
31:21A small burst of neutrons can cause nuclear fission.
31:24This is because it is very fast.
31:26Water, as we said, is the only thing that allows us to reduce the speed of these neutrons.
31:31Therefore, if any problem occurs as a result of raising the control poles for any reason
31:34The reactor began to go out of control
31:36Water turns into steam at high rates
31:39Here, the vacuum that forms the steam means
31:41Neutrons will be much faster than their normal speed.
31:44To a degree that allows her to buy the corn
31:46Therefore, the nuclear reaction calms itself.
31:48Even when the entire control system fails
31:50This, my dear, is a reactor where the vacuum has a negative effect on fission.
31:54Not a positive effect
31:58Unlike what happened in Chernobyl
32:00This, my dear, is safe failure in nuclear reactors.
32:02Which depends on the reactor design
32:04Not based on human factors in his ability
32:06Western reactors, my dear
32:08Its design will be based on this design.
32:10While the Soviets would rely on the second design
32:12Because it's cheaper, right? It's cheaper.
32:14But his fitback is killer.
32:16As long as there are experts and no cheapening
32:18What I mean by "disaster" is
32:19I feel, Muhammad, that we have found the solution.
32:21Majd, thank you
32:22glorification
32:23We found the solution, and the solution is safe failure.
32:25I will plan my whole life like this, God willing.
32:27I regret to tell you, my dear
32:28I wish it were that easy
32:29And no one was defeated
32:30Let me take you by the hand, my dear
32:32An Eastern state created an equation that became Western.
32:34Technologically advanced
32:36It's cool, rich, and everything about it is beautiful.
32:39And that's not all, my dear Haditha
32:40Not forty years ago like Chernobyl
32:42Hamad, you took me and left, Van?
32:43My dear, we are going to planet Japan.
32:46Fukushima accident
32:49Fukushima reactor, unlike Chernobyl
32:51Mutasamtim with the property
32:53It was a safe failure, everything was fine and perfect.
32:57Then March 2011 came and the Fukushima earthquake happened.
33:00Then, my dear, half an hour later
33:02A deep tsunami wave occurs
33:04He would have told you, my dear, that when the earthquake started
33:06The nuclear reaction stopped automatically.
33:08God is great, Abu Hamad, look at the technology and intelligence
33:10But that doesn't mean the reactor has completely shut down.
33:13The uranium sulfate is a common, stable material.
33:16If we stopped the chain reaction
33:18These products decompose on their own.
33:20And it begins to produce thermal energy
33:22This energy, my dear, is in proportion
33:24Six and a half percent of the reactor's energy during operation
33:27The percentage, my dear, remains small.
33:29But it's very hot
33:31This, my dear, is a nuclear reactor.
33:33Not exceeding five flames
33:34Therefore, we had to cool down this nuclear reactor for a few days.
33:38After we stopped it
33:39So that the outputs we talked about will calm down a bit
33:42This, my dear, should happen automatically.
33:44But where did the problem occur?
33:46The reactor, my dear, is cooled by water pumps.
33:48The problem is that the electricity was cut off due to the earthquake.
33:51So, Abu Hamid, don't they have backup generators?
33:53Bravo, my dear! That's exactly what they thought of.
33:55The reactor started operating these generators.
33:57And the pumps started cooling
33:59Farah Al-Jaya: A tsunami wave submerged the power generators.
34:02The generators stopped
34:04The temperature in the reactor core began to rise.
34:07The amount of steam and its pressure increased dramatically.
34:10The high temperature, my dear, contributed to converting the water into hydrogen, and then it exploded.
34:14Therefore, my dear, a meltdown occurred in the reactor core.
34:18Then there was an explosion, a leak, and a nuclear disaster in a very advanced country.
34:24Very smart, she plans for everything
34:27It's the only country in the world that got burned by this soup dish.
34:30In our case, my dear, a new variable is added, with all calculations in parentheses.
34:33New dish, Abu Hamid
34:35Atraf about Japan, it's like tsunamis going and earthquakes coming, a constant source of natural disasters.
34:40The cup is normal, it stays like that, and then you find Japan taking a turn like that.
34:42The technocratic Safaa are respected throughout the world, and Teju dances in front of Japan.
34:46Hey Safai, can't you control yourself a little?
34:48Because of this, my dear, the investigations will focus on the possibility of negligence.
34:52The first thing we'll like to look for
34:53Especially if there is a second reactor above Najawa
34:56The disaster did not occur, even though it was more likely to be near the epicenter of the earthquake than the Fukushima reactor.
35:01Where, my dear, did they find a surprise?
35:03The difference wasn't in the negligence; it was that an employee who didn't know went to smoke a cigarette.
35:06If someone comes along, it's because someone stepped on something wrong.
35:08no
35:09They found that the main difference between the two cases was the timing of the design of the Fukushima reactor.
35:13They studied decades of tsunami and earthquake data from the region.
35:18Therefore, they expected that the senna might not linger above a certain height.
35:21They built a reactor higher than the ground, at this number, with a dam five meters high in front of the reactor in the sea.
35:28But, my dear, when they built his reactor, it became a disaster.
35:31They conducted similar studies and decided to build the reactor at a height of three meters.
35:35But then a respectable engineer came to them
35:37And he told them that if there were two humps, they would be much taller than that.
35:40One happened in 1611 and the other happened in 869
35:45Meaning, before the invention of chips
35:46Therefore, I hope the reactor will be at a height of 14.18 meters.
35:50The tsunami wave that came hit at a height of 13 meters.
35:53So that, my dear, the Ongawa reactor survives and the reactor in Kushima sinks.
35:57Please understand, my dear, this isn't corruption or human error like what happened in Chernobyl.
36:01Hundreds of papers have been written on the differences between the two reactors.
36:04In terms of safety culture and the safety procedures that each reactor takes
36:07But that wasn't the deciding factor.
36:10The main difference between the Fukushima disaster and Ongawa's survival
36:13It was said that Ongawa had an engineer who relied on more than a thousand years of data.
36:17A thousand years of data from the Sennami region
36:19While Fukushima relied on decades of experience
36:22Of course, it's not logical to plan for a thousand years just to create a problem.
36:26So, the cafe is in any need, my dear, anyone who builds a building
36:28He doesn't need to go back and do all the studying he needs to do in the world.
36:31All the studies, all the history, everything is for the purpose of creating architecture.
36:35Dear, we're back to square one now.
36:38It's difficult, my dear, despite everything I know about the Chernobyl disasters.
36:41As long as we can design a completely safe nuclear reactor
36:44It does not cause any disaster whatsoever.
36:46Even if all the machines and systems around him fail
36:49It might be safe in parts of it, but not all of it.
36:51There will always be a Black Swan
36:53The thing that cannot be expected will happen after it occurs.
36:56In this incident, my dear, we have a lot of trouble.
36:58Greater than expected when the reactor was built
37:00No, and it also came with a tsunami unlike any other in the world.
37:04Black Swan incident par excellence
37:06He survived because he had visited a tsunami-era village in the area.
37:09For a thousand years past
37:11Studying a thousand years of data is not a strategy.
37:14Anyone can follow her
37:15This is based on the availability of these girls in the first place.
37:17At that point, we won't be able to make economic decisions regarding every building we design.
37:20Because you take everything into account, even if it's very rare.
37:24You need to make a soup for your brod
37:25At that point, my dear, this won't be economically sound.
37:27We will do what we can, my dear, and what is within our power.
37:29We expect that a car will be found
37:31How will it happen? We don't know.
37:32We accept the idea that we can achieve safe failure, at least partially.
37:35As I told you about it in all the previous examples
37:37We must be mindful that there is always a space where we stop.
37:39We apply safe failure due to human error.
37:42One of the greetings from Fukushima, my dear, says
37:45There were human interventions that could occur.
37:47But it wasn't done, it happened late.
37:48This is due to the extreme negligence of the reactor management.
37:50A chair this size is what you can get
37:52Nobody's trained. What will we do when this reactor gets out of control?
37:55Or all these training systems will stop.
37:57Or the reactor explodes, or its core melts from within.
38:00Because these things won't happen to good guys.
38:02So, my dear, I'm faced with an incident devoid of the beautiful Soviet corruption of Chernobyl.
38:05And that which the West has succeeded in avoiding with distinction
38:07This privilege created a false sense of security that I was safe.
38:10But the Atomic Energy Agency's classification of the Fukushima accident is number seven.
38:14Highest possible classification for an intent incident
38:16There are many reasons, my friend, that can explain humanity's inability to predict the occurrence of black swans.
38:21Things related to how the human mind works, human psychology, and how human memory functions.
38:26Reasons related to the science available to humans so far
38:29His barrier to dealing with this type of rare, high-impact problem
38:33The reasons are related to the fact that life itself is a result of scientific advancement and knowledge.
38:36It still contains machines, inventions, and events that are much more complex than before.
38:40Perhaps, my dear, we have taken the first step towards studying these problems more effectively.
38:45But my dear, we still have a long way to go.
38:47But what's in our hands now, my dear, is to recognize this barrier and decide accordingly.
38:50And we will never forget 100% in a system we designed, nor any equation we reached.
38:53We will try to take precautions against all possible failure scenarios that might cross our minds.
38:57But we still won't be overly cautious or unrealistic in our expectations.
39:00Those of us who are ready will try to deal with any failures that may occur in a way that minimizes their impact.
39:05And so, my dear, perhaps we can catch the black swan before it makes its mark and leaves its mark on us.
39:10Let's fill it up, my dear. Either we stuff it with rice or we stuff it with a team, and then we'll say it in front of the previous episodes.
39:16The upcoming episodes will only be released on the sources we have on YouTube. Subscribe to the channel.
39:19You know, my dear, when Benheimer was sitting with the Americans and they asked him why he did that, what did he say to them? He said, my dear
39:25Naga Zaki, we're making this mess, my dear, I call it "effat" in the form of internationally prohibited common waste.
39:31The first thing you hear is "taf'alah" and "adaha"