In this exclusive interview, Author and Professor Dr. Anshuman Behera sheds light on the controversial question: Is there foreign involvement in Nepal's Gen Z protests? As thousands of young Nepalis take to the streets against social media bans, corruption, and political instability, we explore the geopolitical undercurrents shaping the unrest. Watch as we analyze Nepal’s internal challenges.
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00:00Now, to discuss all of this, the political and the social turbulence in Nepal, I have
00:20with me a very special guest, Dr. Anshuman. He is an author and also a professor in conflict
00:26resolution and peace research program at National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bengaluru.
00:32Thank you so much, Dr. Anshuman for speaking on this very important topic, what is happening
00:37in Nepal. Thank you for joining. Now, my first question to you is this, you know, we saw
00:43the same kind of scenes playing out in other parts of the region, like in Bangladesh, in
00:49Sri Lanka as well, you know, youth storming into government buildings, setting vehicles
00:55on fire. All of these, the same kind of playbook happening this time also in Nepal. Now, do
01:01you see any sort of, an honest question, do you see any sort of connection in all of this?
01:06Or is it simply because the youth of the country is very frustrated and now just want to hit
01:11the streets and voice their concern because this is the only way they can think?
01:16Good afternoon, Ms. Hena. Thanks for the opportunity. This is a very important question to actually
01:23ask because in South Asia, three countries, what we have seen in, if not in quite succession,
01:31but one after another, we are seeing the youth actually storming the stage and coming and
01:36demanding the resignation of a particular kind of, you know, ruling regime. But having said
01:41that what we witness that there are certain commonalities of the one commonality is that
01:48the youth actually taking the center space and protesting against the ruling regime, that
01:52is one important commonality. But if you see Sri Lanka and Bangladesh and compare it with
01:58Nepal, there are also certain kind of, you know, dissimilarities and the Nepal kind of
02:05the youth protesting is quite unique. And I'll tell you why and how. Before that, let me
02:13also tell you in Bangladesh, what we saw that the youth was actually protesting completely
02:19guided by the ethno-religious assertion of identities. Okay, that was one of the important
02:26factors that was wrapped with, that was wrapped with the kind of governance issues and the kind
02:32of the legitimacy question on the Sekashina government. But in Sri Lanka, the case was something, what
02:40the important issue was that of the economic crisis, okay, and the authoritarian rule of the
02:46then regime of the Rajapaksha government. But in Nepal, what we are seeing right now is
02:53that this is something that we predicted. We also thought that since these two countries have
03:00seen the similar kind of, you know, protest by the youth, the next possible country, because
03:05you do not have such a scope in, scope in Pakistan or Afghanistan or in Maldives or in Bhutan.
03:14So wherever you have a little scope for democracy or a democratic form of government is there,
03:20that there could be some possibility that, okay, you know, the youth might actually, you know,
03:24rise and protest against the thing. But what is so unique here, it is, it is
03:30not colored with religious sentiments or ethnic sentiments, okay. And, but then the first
03:36kind of an indication we saw in, in, in Nepal, where the youth was actually asserting its position,
03:44was when Balendra Sahai, if you remember, Balendra Sahai was a rapper, a musician, a civil engineer,
03:51in, in Kathmandu, which, who actually won the, and became the Kathmandu mayor, one of the youngest
03:57mayors in the 15th Kathmandu mayor. That was the time there was also a lot of talk whether the youth
04:04in, in, in Nepal, a country which is completely stricken with poverty and unemployment will come
04:10to that, is actually seeing an assertion of youth or it's a kind of an arise of the youth to take the
04:17center stage. What we are seeing right now in Nepal, there are certain commonalities that the youth is
04:23mobilized. And of course, they might have drawn certain kind of, you know, strength, some kind
04:28of, you know, moral booster from, from, from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. But the issues here are
04:36completely different. But at the same time, I'll just before we move to the next thing,
04:41one commonality that cannot be actually kind of not, you know, overlooked or oversighted,
04:47is the role of the external actors. What we are seeing you, you, I'm not reading too much into it,
04:54but just to provoke our kind of an audience and the thinkers, you see the India and the US
04:59relationship is not in best of the kind of terms right now. And we have certain kind of issues in,
05:06in Nepal and any miss happening there in Nepal has a direct spillover effect on us. Okay, on India.
05:14So that's it. Well, the role of us in, you know, kind of a delegitimizing, say,
05:19has in our comment, the role of China and the US and Sri Lanka, right now, the things are not very
05:24clear, okay, whether 10s of 1000s of students and coming, you know, and storming the states there in
05:31Nepal, I cannot completely rule out the role of the external actors actually provoking and igniting such
05:39a protest. Right. Well, very rightly said, I mean, definitely, we cannot say anything for certain,
05:45but we cannot rule out these possibilities as well. Next question that I want to pose to you
05:52is the economic situation in Nepal. We are seeing that a major percentage of Nepal's GDP comes from
05:58the remittances that the youth of the Nepal, you know, they sent from overseas. Given this fact,
06:05is it, is it the fact that the youth is now completely frustrated with the growing economic
06:10crisis in Nepal? How deep it is? I want to understand from you, is it something which we
06:14saw in Sri Lanka playing out that it just simply collapsed? Or is it on the brink of collapse? Or is
06:19it, you know, far away? What is it? How deep is the situation right now? You know, I'm glad that you
06:25are actually posing this question. You know, this is, we most of the time in analysis, we take the
06:31triggering kind of, you know, factors to actually get into that, that overshadows some of the most
06:37important kind of, you know, issues and factors that drives the kind of frustration, resentment of
06:42the people. If you see, you know, Nepal is actually suffering from three important things. One is
06:48unemployment. And the second is like, you know, the lack of employment, okay. And then there is also
06:55slow growth. And there is something called the underemployment. Okay, the state has been very
07:01cunning, if not very completely dismissive of the thing. They're saying, okay, people who are underemployed
07:07are seen as, okay, you know, employed kind of people. But even after that, you have the employment
07:15rate, you know, is rising to close to 13% in Nepal in 2024. I do not have the, you know, 2025 data with
07:23me. So, but in 2024, the unemployment rate actually has gone up to 13%, you know, close to 13%, 12.6%
07:32if I'm not wrong. And when the unemployment rate is more than 6%, it is an indication that your economy
07:39is not doing good. So when you have, you know, more than that, okay, the economy is not certainly
07:45doing any good in Nepal, right. But at the same time, when the economy is not doing good, the COVID
07:52factor continues to affect, okay, a lot of the Nepali youth who is to migrate to different foreign
07:59countries, especially Japan, and some of the Southeast and countries, the Gulf countries, India,
08:04the market has obviously slowed down. And that has a kind of a direct impact on the Nepali youth
08:10actually taking a lot of economic benefit outside. So but then at the
08:14same time, you will see the Nepali youth is also not unaware of the corruptive practice that is
08:22going on in Nepal for a long time. What you are seeing in Nepal, that is the political instability
08:31and the political kind of you know, this music chair of changing the prime ministership,
08:36okay, it has been normalized in the in the quality and the social social political lives of Nepal.
08:43So one of the slogans if you see, okay, I was watching very carefully, Nepal is very dear to my
08:49heart. That is where I did my research. I was very, you know, the areas that I was covering. So I was
08:54very closely watching what they are actually the slogan is, okay, shut down corruption, not social media.
09:01And that is the popular slogan. And who are these people? You have 10 standard kids actually hitting
09:07the road. You have college going university going people like I'm not legitimizing the way they are
09:13protesting. Okay, but the protest has a economic undertone and the economic factor is very, very
09:20important. The youth is struggling. Youth is struggling to actually get an employment. And those who
09:27are actually thinking that, okay, there is a lot of this is disguised on employment or under employment.
09:34So this has a very important kind of you know, effect on what is happening right now. And this
09:40has been going on for a long time, just that they didn't come to hit the street. Okay, just that,
09:47okay, this has actually triggered them to come. But the youth is very capable and they have completely
09:52aware of the situation and corruption. Okay, and we do not have much time. But say, for example, the BRI,
09:59okay, the Chinese initiative, it is lying. It is not taking anywhere. The development projects are not
10:07taking up. Okay, so that is why there is a huge labour shortage because the labours are not, you know,
10:13called for. So those are the kind of situation. But at the same time, you see the frequent changes of the
10:20government. And that has led to people understand that the government or the political parties rather
10:27are completely into making or breaking the government. They are not taking care of the people anymore.
10:32Right. And I was coming to that question, Dr. Anshuman, that the alliances, it keeps on shifting in Nepal.
10:38I mean, yesterday, when I was talking to a Nepali journalist, he told me that there are basic ideological
10:43differences and very much so. I mean, it was a shocker when UML and Congress Party actually came together and
10:49formed from the government. But again, we are seeing that there is an infighting going. I mean,
10:55how sustainable is this entire model of coalition government in Nepal?
11:02You know, I have been following the Nepal politics for close to two decades. Okay. Unfortunately,
11:09there is absolutely no ideology. And when I'm saying ideology in the sense, you know, a constructive
11:15political ideology. Okay. The ideology of actually clinging to the power, okay, and making or backing
11:22the government has been absolutely normalized, as I told you. Okay. Right now, what we are seeing is that
11:28nobody is an enemy. Nobody is a kind of, you know, friend in Nepal politics is all about in that moment,
11:33moment, you know, who comes closer to you and forms an alliance. We have seen Kepioli forming
11:39alliance with NC. Kepioli actually forming an alliance with the Maoist, right? The Maoists actually
11:47came to power and I'll give a lot of credit to them. Because of them, the democracy was re-established
11:54in Nepal, the constitution was drafted, the monarchy was replaced. But where are they? Okay.
12:00Mr. Prachanda and Kepioli, they formed the government. Okay. The Nepali Congress and Mr. Prachanda,
12:09they formed the government. Okay. Now, what we are saying, this is a musical chair of forming government.
12:15Okay. So, how sustainable it is? Now, this kind of protest comes, okay, directly questioning the
12:21legitimacy of such a kind of thing. Okay. They are questioning that how long you will go? Okay. You
12:27had a genuine demand that the monarchy should go. Monarchy went in 2006. It's been close to two
12:33decades. Okay. And Nepal has actually gone through a lot. Okay. Nepal has gone through a 10 years of
12:40bloody insurgency, where there was an atmosphere of fear, anxiety, apprehension, and all those things.
12:46Thousands died. Thousands have been displaced. Yeah. After that, Nepal has seen a lot of poverty.
12:52Then, in the name of writing the constitution, you took solid, like in 2008 to 2015, you took solid
13:008-10 years to write the constitution. Now, there is a constitution in the place. Okay. That is,
13:05if you read the constitution of India, then the constitution of Nepal, okay, it is very inclusive
13:11in certain ways, though the Madhesis have certain kind of reservations. This is, you have a direct
13:16election, then you have proportional representation and all those things. It's a beautiful,
13:20inclusive kind of constitution. Despite all that, the political culture has been absolutely corrupt.
13:28It has been corrupt to the extent that this generation of the politicians, you know,
13:34Madhav Kumar Nepal, okay, I'm taking their names, but it has to go to them. They should understand
13:39that this model of politics, this model of making and breaking the government, every, you know,
13:46every regular interval is going against the interest of Nepalese, right? So this, how sustainable?
13:54I would say that such movements are, we can see more of such movements actually coming in the future.
14:00Now, the youth has taken the lead and you will see that the neutral population will join them.
14:06And then the youth without the legitimate support or support of the, you know, society would not have
14:14hit the road. That is also my, my one reading that that is also indirect or direct support to this
14:21youth to come and speak against the incumbent government. That, that, that is my read right now. Yeah.
14:29Right. Now, given the pressure that the youth is imposing on the government to resign, do you think
14:34that the government can fall and, uh, prime minister KP Sharma Uli can resign because we are seeing reports
14:40that he might flee to Dubai, you know, so-called medical reasons, but how do you read this entire
14:48situation? Do you think that the government can fall? I, I personally, if you ask me, he, if he has
14:54certain morality left, he should resign because, uh, because, uh, for no reason, for no reason,
15:00we have seen 16 precious lives have been lost by police firing. Okay. And such a kind of, you know,
15:06incident, you know, uh, was very common in Nepal when there was a Maoist insurgency,
15:12when there was a Madhesi, the plane and the hill kind of, you know, protest was going on. Okay.
15:17Those kinds of things that was an ethnic kind of, you know, crisis, the state was somehow vulnerable there.
15:22But here I do not see the vulnerability of the state. Though there is a vulnerability of the
15:28government can be seen. I do not see the vulnerability of the state. Nepal as a state
15:32should stand by its own people. And if the police has opened fire, okay. And that means, and 16 people
15:39have lost their life and 50 odd people are struggling with their life in the hospitals. Okay. If there's
15:44some morality left, I think, okay, on that ground, the mother of Nepal, like, you know, KP Uli should resign.
15:50But at the same time, if he is also leaving Nepal and going, as you reported, okay, if going somewhere
15:56else, this also shows a reputation of the Bangladesh model. Let's say Khashina actually coming here.
16:02So, but then the situation in Nepal is that not that bad, like, Bangladesh, that he cannot come back.
16:08Nepal is not that radical a society. But I would say that, okay, the legitimacy of this form of government
16:15and this form of governance has been questioned at big time. Okay. And the people in power should
16:21understand that. Yeah. Just last question from my end, Dr. Anjuman is, you know, getting away from
16:28the political situation in Nepal, I want to talk about the social media ban per se. When the Nepali
16:35government says that these companies, they need to register themselves in the country, in Nepal,
16:42do you think this as an infringement of the freedom of expression of the people of Nepal?
16:48There are a couple of things we need to address here. One is in the new liberal order,
16:53there is this important issue we need to actually, you know, and we do not have much of answer to this
16:59issue. One is that the state sovereignty and the extra sovereign bodies, okay, the companies like,
17:06you know, say, Twitter, or X, or Facebook, or Instagram, this kind of thing, they do not,
17:14or they transcend, okay, the sovereign boundaries of the states, okay, and they have been so powerful,
17:21okay, and they have been so kind of, you know, they have gone into the society so much that taking them
17:28away or taking them out of your society is difficult, if not completely impossible. If it is a completely,
17:36you know, authoritarian kind of state, it is possible. But then the authoritarian state like
17:40China has its own social platforms, though heavily regulated, but it is there. Say, for example,
17:48you have WeChat instead of WhatsApp, and all those things are there. But once you have such a kind of
17:55system completely penetrated in your society, and the youth of your society is completely kinging onto
18:02it, okay, and then the question comes, can a sovereign state or does the sovereign state have a right to
18:10ban, okay, these kind of companies, the answer is simple, yes, yes, the sovereign state. But is the
18:17sovereign state aware of the implications? Okay, that is where most of the states actually fail.
18:23What we are seeing in Nepal right now, that the state took its citizenry for granted,
18:32while it is important or it is well within its right for the Nepalese government to ask these
18:38companies to register because the law of the land has to be complied with, the law of the land needs to
18:44be agreed, abided by, by these companies. And that is where I am with the Nepalese government for doing
18:50that. Okay, repeated kind of, you know, communications they have made, okay, they have done the right thing.
18:57But before banning, that is where, you know, the state as a communicative agency has failed.
19:05It was also the duty of the state to communicate with its citizens before banning. They should have
19:11created, created a narrative that look, these are the foreign companies, they are in our land,
19:17they are not abiding by our rule. Okay, we are going to do this in 15-20 days time, we are going
19:23to ban it. They could have created a public perception in favor of the Nepalese state.
19:30Right? And that would have actually minimized or that would have actually taken care of a lot of
19:36frustration, a lot of kind of, you know, anger, a lot of kind of, you know, people clinging to the
19:40social media. And they could have actually told multiple, some, some alternative arrangements they
19:45would have done. Okay, and they would have made some partial kind of, you know, a ban on certain
19:51things. That would have actually taken care of the disinterest of the youth or the demands or the
19:57legitimate, the grievances of the youth. But the state here, or the government rather, failed in
20:04communicating. Why they failed? Because they are indifferent or not willing to factor in,
20:10okay, the people's aspirations, the people's habit, the people's interest and their connection with
20:16the social media, taking your citizens for granted. Okay, so, so, so these are, these are tricky issues,
20:22but then a better communication from the government side would have taken a month more time to ban it.
20:28But in a month more time, we would have actually created a perception among our own youth,
20:34look, okay, these are against our, our country, our state, the youth, at least some substantial
20:40portion of the youth would have actually understood.
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