00:00Well, it's certainly not the hedge that it billed itself as, because you've got Bitcoin now flirting with that $66,000 level.
00:07Like you said, that is a line in the sand, and I'm speaking to analysts who say that if it doesn't hold, $60,000 to $65,000 is next.
00:14You've got options traders on Deribit already positioning for that.
00:18There's even open interest down at $20,000, and I've been speaking to a mix of traders and analysts who are watching these moves,
00:24and they say that there are three big reasons why Bitcoin is still in sell-off mode.
00:29Well, semis and the QQQ were bouncing back at least earlier in the session.
00:33First thing here is the ETF bid has totally flipped.
00:36Inflows were a major leg of support last year.
00:38Tens of billions flowed in.
00:40Now that's reversed, $5 billion out over the past three months, $2 billion in the last month alone.
00:46Second big headwind here, the corporate treasury trade is unwinding.
00:50Strategy reports after the bell today, it's down more than 14% in the session so far today.
00:56It's staring at $17 billion in unrealized losses on its Bitcoin stake in Q4 alone.
01:03Those shares now trading below the value of their holdings, so that reflexive bid where strategy issues stock, buys Bitcoin, Bitcoin goes up, that's broken.
01:11Third big problem here, Brian, we're seeing liquidation cascades.
01:15It's $2 billion in forced selling this week alone, and without conviction buyers willing to lean in, each wave of redemptions just triggers the next leg lower.
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