00:00A Russian intercontinental ballistic missile erupts from a silo, in this footage the country's
00:08defense ministry put out in October.
00:11Back then, Russia and its rival, the US, still adhered to a strict cap on how many strategic
00:16nuclear warheads they could deploy, around 1,500 each.
00:21But as of Thursday, that arrangement, the 2010 New START Treaty, has expired.
00:26Even at the height of the Cold War, the US and Russia limited their nuclear stockpiles
00:31through a series of treaties.
00:36Now the guardrails are off, and there's no guarantee they're coming back.
00:41As early as last year, US President Donald Trump suggested denuclearization for Russia, as well
00:47as rising nuclear power China.
00:49And I know they're going to do it.
00:50They agreed to it.
00:52We were talking about denuking, denuclearize, denuking.
00:57And President Putin and I agreed that we were going to do it in a very big way.
01:03While Russia's President Putin proposed extending the treaty.
01:06Therefore, Russia is prepared to continue adhering to the central qualmitated limitations of the
01:14New START Treaty for one year after February 5, 2026.
01:19We believe this measure will only be viable if the United States acts in a similar manner.
01:25But nothing has come of either suggestion yet, with both countries focused on Russia's war
01:30in Ukraine.
01:32An anonymous White House official said Monday, Trump will decide what to do about arms controls,
01:36quote, on his own timeline.
01:39And in any case, Washington split.
01:42Accepting Putin's extension means there's time to plan next steps and show both sides want
01:47to keep the guardrails on.
01:52But there's no guarantee Russia is living up to its agreements anyway.
01:55Moscow has refused inspection since 2023.
01:59And then there's the big question of China.
02:02Russia and the US still have around 87% of the world's nuclear warheads, even if only a
02:08fraction are deployed and many are retired.
02:11But China is expanding its arsenal fast.
02:14It has around 600 warheads today.
02:17By 2030, that could rise to as many as 1,000.
02:20Beijing has rejected three-way arms talks, since for now, its arsenal is still the smallest
02:25of the three.
02:26I can assure you that if the US says that they are ready to come down to the Chinese level,
02:34China will be happy to participate the next day.
02:37So, but actually, we know that that's not going to happen.
02:46Some observers say China could take advantage of continued US caps on nuclear weapons.
02:51The result would be a country emboldened to push its objectives, maybe including its long-threatened
02:56takeover of Taiwan.
02:59As the US considers what to do next, it's clear that putting limits on China's nuclear weapons
03:03program is on the minds of officials in Washington.
03:06The President's been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st
03:12century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China because of their vast
03:15and rapidly growing stockpile.
03:17Not all see an immediate arms race now that the treaty's expired, but they say the danger
03:23of a long-term buildup is real and concerning.
03:26I mean, this marks a potential turning point into a much more dangerous period of global nuclear
03:35competition, the likes of which, you know, we've not seen in our lifetime.
03:39As the world order shows signs of fracturing, a big feature of that order, limits on nuclear
03:45arms, now has an uncertain future.
03:48Eason Chen and John Van Trieste for Taiwan Plus.
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