00:00In the last few days, tensions around Iran have surged again.
00:28Not because of missiles in the air, but because of something said behind closed doors.
00:38Saudi Arabia's defense minister is now reportedly warning Washington that not striking Iran could actually make Tehran stronger.
00:48And that message directly collides with what Riyadh says publicly.
00:53So what's really going on here?
00:56Let's start with the moment that set the tone.
01:00During a recent exchange, President Donald Trump was asked about Saudi concerns that backing off a strike would embolden Iran.
01:12His response was cautious, almost familiar.
01:16Trump said some believe that, some don't.
01:20And if a negotiated deal can stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, that's preferable.
01:26But he also admitted uncertainty about whether Iran would actually follow through, even as talks continue.
01:38That hesitation matters because Saudi Arabia is playing a very careful, very strategic game.
01:48Public position, diplomacy and de-escalation.
01:52On the surface, Saudi Arabia has been remarkably consistent.
01:56It has repeatedly emphasized diplomacy, respect for Iran's sovereignty, and opposition to military escalation.
02:06In late January 2026, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally assured Iran's president that Saudi airspace and territory would not be used for any attack against Iran.
02:20The promise wasn't symbolic.
02:22It means any potential U.S. strike would have to bypass Saudi airspace, forcing longer routes, more refueling, higher risks, and more complexity for Washington.
02:36Other Gulf states, like the UAE, echoed similar assurances.
02:40This public stance helps Saudi Arabia do three things at once.
02:45Reduce the risk of retaliation, protect critical infrastructure, and preserve diplomatic ties with Iran.
02:54Ties that were only normalized in 2023 through a China-brokered steel.
02:59On the outside, Riyadh looks like a stabilizing force.
03:05But privately, the tone is very different.
03:10In a closed-door briefing in Washington on January 30, 2026, Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman reportedly warned that if the U.S. fails to act after repeated threats, Iran would come out stronger.
03:26Multiple sources described it as a blunt message.
03:30Inaction erodes deterrence.
03:33The minister acknowledged escalation risks, but argued that backing down now would embolden Tehran's nuclear ambitions, proxy networks, and regional influence.
03:45A senior Gulf official at the same meeting summed it up starkly.
03:50A strike could have bad outcomes, but not striking could be worse.
03:57So why the double message?
04:00This isn't confusion.
04:02It's calculation.
04:03First, rivalry with Iran.
04:06Iran-backed groups like the Houthis have launched hundreds of attacks on Saudi targets since 2015.
04:13Weakening Iran benefits Saudi Arabia, especially if Riyadh doesn't have to pull the trigger itself.
04:20Second, dependence versus diversification.
04:24Saudi Arabia still relies heavily on U.S. weapons and security guarantees.
04:29But years of frustration, especially over Yemen, have convinced Riyadh that America may not always show up.
04:37So publicly, Riyadh hedges with China, Russia, and its diplomacy.
04:42Privately, it pushes Washington to use its power.
04:46Third, risk management.
04:49If the U.S. strikes Iran, Saudi can quietly benefit.
04:54If it doesn't, Saudi avoids blame and potential retaliation.
04:59Either way, Riyadh preserves leverage.
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