00:00Do you think that Wall Street is underplaying just how hot GDP could be in the next few quarters?
00:05Well, if you do go into your Bloomberg screen and look at the consensus expectations of growth, it tells you that growth is...
00:10This is expected for the next 18 months to literally, for every single quarter, be 2.0.
00:14That happened...
00:15This happens to be exactly the potential growth rate from the Congressional Budget Office.
00:18In other words, there is not much...
00:20There is not much drama to the upside expected.
00:22There is not much drama to the downside.
00:24But if you begin to look...
00:25Look at what happened on January 1st with one big, beautiful bill being a tailwind.
00:28We still have AI and data...
00:30We now also have the dollar going down.
00:32There is also a tailwind.
00:33And we also have oil prices going down.
00:35That's also a tailwind.
00:36So the risks are indeed beginning to rise, that we're going to see growth accelerate.
00:40As we go through this year.
00:41So I do think that it is maybe laziness on the forecasting community...
00:45But at least it looks like from the forecast that people are just penciling in 2.0, meaning the long run growth...
00:50Let me follow up, because I don't want to lose friends this afternoon either.
00:52But is Wall Street getting intellectually lazy?
00:55Or are they just struggling to price the chaos?
00:56Well, I do think that it is, of course, a struggle to figure out both, of course, what...
01:00Also, changes have meant we've been through the last week or so.
01:02Also, some pretty significant changes on the geopolitical front.
01:05So it is still very uncertain in terms of what are the implications when it comes to what's coming.
01:10With tariffs, there's more coming.
01:11What's coming with tariff uncertainty, a company is going to pull back, because there's more uncertainty.
01:15But all that aside, I mean, it still is the case that if you take fiscal policy, very expansionary...
01:20Now you have the dollar going down, you have oil prices going down, and you still have a strong AI boom...
01:25The data center and energy build-out, those are all very strong tailwinds, not only to CapEx, of course...
01:30On its own business fixed investment, but also to consumer spending.
01:32So I would expect that growth is going to be high.
01:35More than what the consensus is expecting at the moment.
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