00:00So let's talk about game number one, Broncos Patriots, three and a half, four points spread
00:05now with the move total in this game is 43 and a half.
00:10And I actually believe the Denver Broncos will win this game.
00:15I am somewhat invested in that.
00:19I played Denver stage of elimination before the postseason began to lose in the Super
00:24Bowl at I believe plus 550 was that number and obviously it is frustrating that they
00:34have to climb the mountain against New England here with Stidham as opposed to Bo Nix where
00:38they would have been positioned as favorites.
00:41The one thing if you did make that same bet that I did, the Super Bowl sets up well, you
00:48know that the spread is supposed to be north of a touchdown regardless of who makes it
00:54out of the NFC.
00:55If Denver wins this game, why do I think Denver is going to win this game?
00:59A few reasons.
01:00I think they have the better coach.
01:03I think Mike Vrabel was christened NFL coach of the year a little too early in the season.
01:10And I'm not saying he's an undeserving candidate.
01:14I don't think he would have been my winner.
01:16And I think Sean Payton was under discussed.
01:18Sean Payton has a quarterback that not a lot of people believe in in Bo Nix.
01:24And yet they were the number one seed in the AFC and knocked off Patrick Mahomes and the
01:28Kansas City Chiefs to win that AFC West.
01:31And they literally did knock them off in their building.
01:34And that really was, I think, what fully flipped the Chiefs season on its head.
01:39And Sean Payton having to go to war here again, you know, with projected subpar quarterback
01:48play is something I'm comfortable with because I think he has situations down.
01:55I think he knows when to be aggressive.
01:57I think he knows when to, you know, keep it inside the numbers, if you will.
02:04But what works so well for Denver in this game is they have one of, if not the best offensive
02:12lines in football.
02:13And this is a Patriots pass rush that has been feasting.
02:17There's no bigger difference for New England than the offensive lines they've enjoyed going
02:25up against in the first two matchups and what they will see today.
02:28And I think that'll make life far more difficult on this New England defense than they are
02:33necessarily expecting it to be.
02:36And I think offensively for New England, they play a defense that will be the best they've
02:43seen yet.
02:44Not wildly better than Houston, but with the game being in Denver, I actually don't think
02:49the Chargers defense is in the class of Houston or Denver.
02:52I know they have some good numbers.
02:54I don't think it's in the class.
02:55And we have seen a Patriots offense struggle to protect Drake May.
03:02We've seen Drake May struggle to protect the football.
03:06He has never played a road playoff game.
03:09And I think that it puts the Patriots up against it.
03:14I think this is an under.
03:15I think it's a clean under personally.
03:18I know you don't agree with that.
03:19That's fine.
03:21I think this game could finish 20 to 10 Denver.
03:23All in all, the Patriots have scored 16 points against the Chargers and 21 offensive points
03:29against the Texans.
03:31Now on the road against this Denver defense, I think it's lower than that, Joe.
03:37I think the Broncos win this game.
03:38I think it's an under.
03:39Yeah.
03:40I mean, you bring up great points.
03:42It wouldn't shock me if we get an under.
03:44And it's going to come down to, can Jared Stidham potentially answer the bell, not turn the
03:49football over?
03:50And I told this to Donnie yesterday, and I'll say it again.
03:53The biggest drop-off potentially for Stidham from Nix is not just yards.
04:01It's when they get or if they get into the red zone, can they complete and score touchdowns as
04:09opposed to being held to field goals?
04:11Because the biggest thing, too, with Bo Nix is you get his mobility.
04:16And I understand Stidham is somewhat mobile, but he's not as mobile as Bo Nix.
04:21Bo Nix rushed for 29 yards last week on Buffalo.
04:25He put his team and always puts his team in the potential on third and fourth downs to sustain
04:31drives with his legs if need be.
04:33Are you going to get that with Jared Stidham?
04:35So those are all the factors, Kev, of why this game could go under.
04:42I'm just going in the fact of, I believe in Sean Payton.
04:46I believe that Sean Payton in the first 15 to 20 plays of this game is very aggressive,
04:52just the way he was last week against Buffalo.
04:55They got right down to the red zone on the first drive.
04:58They settled for a field goal.
05:00They're going to have to score points.
05:02They cannot just play basically counterpuncher and rope-a-dope up against Drake May in this
05:08offense.
05:09You're not going to win that game.
05:10So the fact that you are at home and you do have the benefit of the better defense potentially,
05:16be more aggressive with the backup to see if you could jump up early.
05:20And that's why I like the over.
05:21I lean to Denver with the points, but I like the over more.
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