00:00How about this? Men's Australian Open winner. Joe loves himself some no contracts here. You got Yannick Sinner at a 52% chance. Carlos Alcarez at a 34% chance. Then everybody else, 6%, 4%, and 3%. You said it time and time again. Sinner or Alcarez, one of those two will win this Open. So why not just load up on some no's of even Djokovic as well as Medvedev as far down as you go. No's, Joe. No's win the day.
00:27Yep. Absolutely, Don. I mean, listen, the market is basically officially declaring the era of the big three over. Sinner and Alcarez are 87% of the entire market, Donnie. There is zero value in a long shot here. Listen, Novak at 8%, it's one of those legacy traps. We're not investing based upon past glory. That is not something we're doing.
00:51At 53, though, at 53 cents, Sinner is priced as a coin flip against really the field. So if you believe Alcarez at 34 cents has the higher ceiling, you're getting a massive discount on the guy who arguably has more raw talent. This is a classic value versus consistency trade here.
01:13How about Ben Shelton, National Pride, 2% chance here to win it. A $100 investment pays back $5,000 there. The women's side, you got Sabalenka and Rabakina, 40% and 14% expected here. Sabalenka's 40%, Joe. Is that too high? We can't get more of an upset here than the men's side, no?
01:35Well, I mean, this is all about the surface, right? Because Sabalenka trading at that price, 40 cents, the market is basically saying she is the queen of the hard courts. And she is. Because unlike the men's side, where Sinner is 53 cents, basically a coin flip, Sabalenka is priced at 40 cents.
01:57This means the market is less confident in hard dominance than they are in Sinners. But I don't know about that. I mean, 40 cents is a dangerous price. You're paying a premium for her past title. But I'm sorry. I think surface means everything in this spot here. I think she's a good investment.
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