00:00New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos.
00:02That's going to be game number one on Sunday afternoon,
00:04the AFC Championship game from Denver, Joe.
00:06I want to start here because, you know, we have the injuries we'll get to,
00:09we have the spread, we have the total and all that.
00:11But I always like to focus sometimes on the weather conditions
00:13and maybe what the impact is going to be.
00:1520-degree temperatures at the start of that football game, Joe.
00:18No precipitation in the forecast and winds under 10 miles per hour.
00:22Cold conditions, yes, but certainly manageable here.
00:24So now let's jump into it.
00:26You're looking at the favorite in this game,
00:27which would have been the Denver Broncos had we not seen an injury to Bo Nix,
00:31which now has Jared Stidham as the starting quarterback.
00:34The total of this game, Joe, listed at 42.5.
00:36And even now, Joe, we're seeing 43.5 in the marketplace.
00:39People starting to trust Jared Stidham.
00:41Perfect jump-off point, Joe.
00:42Bo Nix goes down.
00:44Stidham inserted into that lineup.
00:45What do you think the effects on the Broncos' offense will be?
00:48I don't think it's going to be that limited.
00:50Again, we're not talking about a rookie with no big-game experience.
00:53He was brought in by Sean Payton because he believed in the backup.
00:57And he believed that he can run his type of scheme in a pinch or in a tough situation.
01:02So it's going to come down to, you know, as long as Stidham doesn't turn the football over,
01:07I think they could put up points.
01:09Problem is, they're banged up at the wide receiver position.
01:11Troy Franklin went down.
01:13Pat Bryant went down in the first quarter.
01:15Bryant's listed for totals.
01:17Troy Franklin isn't.
01:18It'll be Marvin Mims, Sutton, and Evan Ingram so far in that offense.
01:23Can he deliver the football and go through the reads and progressions and potentially put his team in a position?
01:29And more importantly, Donnie, this is the biggest thing whether – and if you like Denver,
01:33and the reason why I think now they would be favored is I was very impressed with Bo Nix's performance against Buffalo,
01:40but they're not in one at home.
01:41You know, the only loss came when they lost that matchup to Jacksonville,
01:47and Trevor Lawrence is a three-and-a-half-point favorite in that matchup the week after they beat Green Bay.
01:52Can they score touchdowns as opposed to field goals in the red zone?
01:57That's where – I don't think Stidham will have a problem in between the 30s.
02:02So I like his yardage prop.
02:04I think when we attack this total, it's going to be, okay, are we going to get the same amount of touchdowns
02:10or the possibility to score touchdowns with Stidham as opposed to Nix?
02:16And I think that's where you have to weigh.
02:18I still like Denver, and I lean to the side, but I still think we can get points in this matchup
02:23because I'll believe in Stidham to at least get us a couple of touchdowns in this matchup against New England.
02:29You know what's fascinating, too, because I thought Bo Nix has been tremendous.
02:32And, boy, we're really missing out on what we thought was going to be Drake May versus Bo Nix,
02:36that second-year quarterback who's going to take control of the AFC for the next decade or so.
02:40We're not going to get that.
02:41But Jared Stidham, make no mistake about it, Joe.
02:42We were seeing numbers as low as like 188-and-a-half on his passing prop.
02:46He's now up at Fandom looking at 200-and-a-half, so people are buying in.
02:50Last week, Nix's statistics, 279 in the air, 29 yards rushing, three touchdowns, and only one interception.
02:56So, for me, Joe, like if this would happen like in-game, yeah, Stidham's ice cold coming into a game.
03:00You have an entire week to sort of build that game plan around them.
03:03But also, oddsmakers, Joe, they're pretty smart.
03:05They don't just throw things out there.
03:06Last week, Bo Nix was a 20-and-a-half completion number on FanDuel.
03:1119-and-a-half is Stidham's number.
03:12They're expecting him just to fill in.
03:14Yeah, and not only that, but the 19-and-a-half is if you believe New England's the right side
03:19and they're trailing, he's going to have to throw the football in that matchup.
03:22The biggest thing, too, I think, if you watch that game against Buffalo,
03:26the scripted plays for Sean Payton early on, they moved right down the field.
03:31Remember they had the fumble where they inside the five-yard line
03:35and they came away with basically a field goal as opposed to a touchdown.
03:40But, again, they moved right down the field on Buffalo.
03:42So, you've got to believe with Stidham, I don't think Payton pulls back the reins
03:47because, all right, it's not Bo.
03:49Bo is obviously playing in his best level heading into this matchup.
03:53But it's got to be, hey, we're going in, we're going to be aggressive in the passing attack,
03:58and then that will open up the rushing attack.
04:01Because, Donnie, if they go run on first down, run on second down, third and eight,
04:05they're going to get blown out in this matchup.
04:07They have to be more aggressive on the early downs.
04:10And that's why I do like – I don't know about the touchdowns.
04:13I still think he can lead touchdowns, but I feel more confident with the yardage with Stidham
04:18getting to two and a quarter or potentially 250 if they're trailing.
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