00:00Brazil woke up one day and realized that something profoundly wrong had become normal.
00:06It wasn't a sudden collapse.
00:08There were no sirens or headlines in large letters announcing the start of the crisis.
00:13She simply settled in, silently.
00:16While millions went about their routines,
00:18without realizing that the ground was beginning to give way beneath their own feet.
00:22In November 2025, a piece of data swept through the country like an electric shock.
00:27There were more Brazilians living on welfare programs.
00:31than working with a formal employment contract in the private sector.
00:34For the first time, the balance that underpins any modern economy had been reversed.
00:40On one side, 48 million people depend directly on the State for their survival.
00:47On the other hand, there are only 39 million people supporting the country's formal productive machinery.
00:54This number is not just a statistic.
00:56It is a stark portrait of the present and perhaps a stark warning about the future that is approaching.
01:02Because when a nation becomes more dependent on income transfer than on wealth creation,
01:09The problem ceases to be economic.
01:11It becomes structural, moral, and political.
01:14The official discourse attempts to soften the impact.
01:17There is talk of inclusion, social justice, and protection for the most vulnerable.
01:23All of this is legitimate, necessary, and human.
01:26No society can turn its back on those who are starving.
01:30But there is an invisible and dangerous line between protecting and imprisoning.
01:35Between protecting and creating dependency.
01:39Between providing aid and turning that aid into a permanent destination.
01:43Brazil seems to have crossed that line without realizing it.
01:47While social programs were growing at an accelerated pace,
01:50The job market was moving in the opposite direction.
01:54Businesses were quietly closing their doors.
01:57Small business owners gave up before even trying.
02:01On average, four businesses were closing down every minute.
02:06A number so brutal it's hard to even imagine.
02:09Each closed CNPJ (Brazilian business registration number) represents more than just a failed business.
02:15It represents jobs that no longer exist.
02:18Interrupted dreams.
02:20Families who returned to the waiting list for state-run healthcare.
02:24And the longer the line, the bigger the bill.
02:26To sustain it, the government looks to where it has always looked.
02:31In the pockets of those who are still producing.
02:33New taxes, new fees, new contributions.
02:37They appear under technical, almost harmless names.
02:41But with the same effect as always.
02:44They make the work more expensive.
02:46They discourage formalization.
02:48And they push even more people into the informal economy.
02:52This then forms a vicious cycle.
02:54Hard to break.
02:56Fewer formal jobs lead to greater dependency.
02:58More dependency requires more revenue.
03:01But tax collection stifles those who try to start a business.
03:04And the suffocation leads to fewer jobs.
03:08It's a slow but relentless movement.
03:11Like quicksand.
03:13Meanwhile, a word is starting to appear frequently in official reports.
03:19Full employment.
03:20A beautiful, comforting term.
03:23Almost optimistic.
03:24But a close look at the numbers reveals that this idea doesn't hold up.
03:29In Brazil, those who stop looking for work also cease to exist in the statistics.
03:35Discouragement does not manifest as unemployment.
03:39And why did so many give up searching?
03:42Because many have discovered that it is possible to survive by combining state aid with informal activities.
03:50It's not prosperity, but it's survival.
03:52And when survival becomes enough, the country stops progressing.
03:57Informality is growing.
03:59The use of independent contractors is exploding.
04:01And now a new milestone is set.
04:03More Brazilians are living off benefits than are protected by formal labor laws.
04:09This is not a technical detail.
04:11It's a serious symptom.
04:13At the same time, Brazil became a world champion in labor litigation.
04:18Millions of cases are piling up in overcrowded courts.
04:22Creating legal uncertainty, fear of hiring, and paralysis in investment.
04:28The businessman doesn't know if the agreement signed today will be considered valid tomorrow.
04:33The worker doesn't know if what was agreed upon will be respected.
04:37In this environment, hiring becomes a risk.
04:40And risk drives people away from their jobs.
04:41Meanwhile, temporary public policies are transformed into permanent structures.
04:47In Brazil, nothing lasts as long as a program designed to be short-lived.
04:53The promise of an exit door disappears.
04:56The length of stay is extended.
04:58And the aid ceases to be a bridge and becomes permanent housing.
05:02This creates something even more delicate.
05:04An emotional and political relationship between the citizen and the State.
05:08When millions become directly dependent on the government to put food on the table,
05:13Freedom of choice weakens.
05:16Not out of ignorance.
05:17Not out of bad faith.
05:19But out of fear.
05:20Fear of losing the little that guarantees survival.
05:23In this scenario, democracy begins to carry a silent burden.
05:28Voting is no longer just about opinion.
05:30And it blends with necessity.
05:32It's not a phenomenon unique to Brazil.
05:34Countries that have gone down this path before serve as a warning.
05:39Economies that have replaced production with subsidies,
05:42Work through dependency, freedom through guardianship.
05:46Some took decades to realize their mistake.
05:49Others are still struggling to escape him.
05:52What they all have in common is the same breaking point.
05:56When the State starts promising dignity,
05:59But it only delivers survival.
06:01Dignity doesn't come from monthly payments.
06:04It is born from work, from autonomy,
06:07the ability to choose one's own destiny.
06:11In nations where rights are strong,
06:14where the property is protected,
06:16where the entrepreneur is not treated as a suspect,
06:20People invest, innovate, and build.
06:23Where these rights weaken,
06:25Society is slowly decaying.
06:27even if the money continues to circulate.
06:30The debate about the work schedule,
06:32Regarding new rules,
06:34Regarding more state intervention,
06:36It emerges in this context as yet another chapter.
06:39of the same story.
06:41A story in which the State believes it knows best.
06:45than the citizen and how he should live,
06:48Work, rest, and dream.
06:51But economies cannot be sustained by decree.
06:54They don't prosper by decree alone.
06:56They don't grow through promises.
06:57They grow when producing is worthwhile.
07:00Today, many Brazilians realize
07:02that having a formal job means earning little,
07:06Paying too much and taking too many risks.
07:09The outcome is predictable.
07:11They escape the system.
07:13And when they run away,
07:14The system becomes even more burdensome for those who remain.
07:18The projections are grim.
07:19Economists warn that,
07:21If this pace is maintained,
07:22in a few years,
07:24all the country's revenue
07:25It can be consumed.
07:27just to maintain the public machine itself,
07:30pay benefits
07:31and to cover mandatory expenses.
07:35Nothing would be left for investment.
07:37infrastructure or real growth.
07:40It would be a functioning country.
07:41just to support himself.
07:44A state that is too big to fail.
07:46but too heavy to walk.
07:47And at the center of it all
07:49There you have it, the average Brazilian.
07:51Not as a villain.
07:52Never as the guilty party.
07:54But as a hostage of a model
07:56which promises protection,
07:57But it reduces horizons.
07:59The problem isn't receiving help.
08:01The problem is not being able to get out of it.
08:04True social policy
08:06It's not the one that keeps someone
08:08dependent for decades.
08:10But the one that restores autonomy,
08:12that transforms aid into a bridge,
08:14that teaches, qualifies, prepares and liberates.
08:18Without this, the country cannot move forward.
08:21It just survives.
08:22And surviving is not the same as living.
08:25Before we move on to the closing,
08:27I want to express my deepest gratitude.
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09:08Thank you for watching until the end.
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