00:00Does this mean perhaps another year of underperformance in U.S. stocks?
00:04I mean, we've gotten over the Greenland hump and stocks across U.S. assets seems to have come out on top.
00:10But what is your sense of where we go from here?
00:14Yeah, it's an interesting question.
00:18I mean, I think certainly with the removal of the tariff threats between U.S. and Europe
00:27and obviously Trump in his Davos speech pulling back and saying there was going to be
00:32no chance of military confrontation in that situation.
00:36I mean, in some capacities, that has de-risked U.S. assets.
00:39I mean, we were talking about the idea of what is going to be the political premium
00:44that comes into U.S. assets, which probably would have been most vocally dictated
00:49through the U.S. dollar and the effects channels more than the U.S. equity market
00:52because investors still want access to those monopolistic businesses in the U.S.
00:59and obviously the high growth plays around that.
01:01There's companies there in return on equity that you're not going to get elsewhere.
01:05So it was more a question of hedging ratios and people moving that money away.
01:09But, yeah, I think the big talk this year is that we are going to get a broadening out of earnings growth
01:15and there does seem to be a bit of a lack of love at the moment for a lot of the tech space, the semis.
01:21And, you know, given the weightings that the Mag7 and certainly the tech space has on the S&P,
01:26you know, if we're not going to see a continued bull run going forward,
01:30then you expect to see, you know, some underperformance from the U.S.
01:34But I think had we seen the political risk premium really coming up on U.S. assets
01:39as a result of a more sinister turn in Greenland and the negotiations around there,
01:45then, yeah, you could make an argument that U.S. assets would have had a more sort of more pronounced underperformance going forward.
01:52But, yeah, I think, yeah, we're looking at, you know, can the tech space, can NVIDIA really find its mojo again?
01:59Can we start pushing back up to $200?
02:01Obviously, we wait for the earnings to come through.
02:02Google really needs to kick into its earnings, and that looks pretty good at the moment.
02:07But without, you know, the Mag7 really and, you know, Broadcom to an extent really finding, you know,
02:12some good upside coming forward, you know, it's difficult to see a solid outperformance from the U.S. in this situation.
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