00:00.
00:30for a potential U.S. attack.
00:33You've advised Mr. Trump in the past.
00:35Do you think he's now leaning towards military intervention?
00:39Is he preparing for war?
00:41Well, I think it's certainly the case he's looking at potential strikes
00:45against targets in Iran because of the protests.
00:49I believe for a long time that regime change in Iran
00:53is an absolute prerequisite for any hope of lasting peace and security
00:57in the Middle East and really to eliminate the threat
01:00of international terrorism and nuclear weapons
01:03that the regime in Tehran represents.
01:06I think the regime is weak.
01:07I think it's at its most vulnerable moment,
01:09perhaps even going back to 1979 when it took power.
01:15And so here, military action by the U.S. could have a decisive effect
01:18on the dynamic inside Iran.
01:21But you mentioned targeted military strikes.
01:24But if the endgame here is to finally topple the Ayatollah's regime,
01:30is that enough?
01:31Well, I think the targets to look at,
01:33obviously taking out whatever air defenses remained for Iran
01:37and for new ones the Russians may have supplied.
01:40But then I would look at striking the headquarters
01:43of the Revolutionary Guard, military bases of the Guard,
01:47the Basiji militia that has been instrumental
01:50in repressing the population, the Iranian Navy,
01:54the nuclear program, the ballistic missile program.
01:57And I think that would further debilitate the regime.
02:00And it would show to the opposition,
02:01we're not trying to harm Iran itself.
02:03It's the regime that's the target.
02:05It would give the opposition clear indication
02:08that the U.S. and the rest of the outside world are watching.
02:11So you think, Mr. Bolton,
02:12that we could be looking at the start of the end of the regime?
02:16Is that the endgame for the U.S.?
02:18Well, I hope so.
02:19I mean, we've been close to this point before.
02:21There's been enormous discontent in Iran
02:24for a variety of reasons, ethnic clashes.
02:29The young people are unhappy.
02:31Women are unhappy since the murder of Masyamini
02:34over two years ago.
02:36The economic situation is obviously extremely bad.
02:39But the outside world has basically sat back
02:42and done nothing now and permitted the regime
02:45to suppress the opposition.
02:47I think if we show that we are very much interested
02:52in what happens and favor the fall of the government,
02:57that that could have a very positive effect inside the country.
03:00And you mentioned the outside world.
03:02Do you think Europe also needs to step in here?
03:05What can it do?
03:06Well, Europe hasn't done much of anything, unfortunately.
03:08I think they should be working with the United States.
03:11We should all be working more with the opposition
03:13to provide resources, communications, for example,
03:16to help them coordinate better inside Iran.
03:19I think the situation is different now for a couple of reasons.
03:22Number one, the protest after the murder of Masyamini
03:26for neglecting to wear the hijab that the Ayatollahs prescribed
03:31was not just an issue about the dress code.
03:35The regime's basis of legitimacy is that it speaks the will of God.
03:40And when people say, well, we don't think wearing the hijab
03:43comes from God, it comes from the Ayatollahs,
03:46you're just not attacking that issue.
03:48You're attacking the very legitimacy of the Ayatollahs themselves.
03:52And that influence is still there.
03:54Plus, this time, the economic circumstances in Iran
03:57are really bad, worse than ever.
04:00And that's why the protests are so widespread,
04:03countrywide at this point.
04:05We hear Trump talking about coming to the aid of the Iranian people.
04:09We heard similar language when it came to Venezuela.
04:12Yet, Mr. Trump seems to be completely comfortable at the moment
04:16with having Nicolás Maduro sit in a New York prison
04:20while his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez,
04:23is at the helm in Caracas.
04:25She's a key figurehead of the Maduro regime.
04:29So, when you look at Venezuela,
04:31do you think Trump is really interested
04:33in changing autocracies into democracies?
04:36Or is it really, at the end,
04:38all about oil and the strength of the dollar and so on?
04:42Well, it's not really clear what Trump is interested in.
04:44I think we're on the verge of squandering an opportunity in Venezuela.
04:49I'm glad Maduro has been captured.
04:51But the regime in power in Caracas
04:53is the Maduro regime without Maduro.
04:56And if we're not careful,
04:57that regime will entrench itself.
04:59And the people will still not be able to take control of the government.
05:03And it will also mean that there's not going to be
05:05any substantial external investment in Venezuela in the oil industry.
05:10So, the poverty there will continue.
05:12Trump himself tweeted to the Iranian opposition,
05:15take control of your institutions.
05:17Well, that's what he should be saying in Venezuela as well.
05:20That is how you help overthrow the repressive regime.
05:24He is due to meet the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, very soon.
05:30Do you think that could change anything?
05:32Or is Trump really not interested in a proper democratic transition in Venezuela?
05:36Well, I think this is a good opportunity for Machado to say,
05:39look, if you don't have representative government in Venezuela,
05:43you're never going to have a rule of law society.
05:46You're going to be subject to the arbitrary will of the Maduro regime.
05:50And those circumstances mean foreign investors are not going to come in.
05:53They're not going to risk, especially in the oil sector,
05:57billions of dollars of investment that some dictator can just grab away from them.
06:01So, for Trump's own purposes, putting the opposition in Venezuela in power is important.
06:07And perhaps she can persuade or explain to him why that's important.
06:12If he fails to do that, is that a strategic failure for the U.S., do you feel?
06:16I think it could well be.
06:17I think what the regime in Caracas is doing now is shoring up its support from the military,
06:23the police, the colectivos, the motorcycle gangs that they use to intimidate the population,
06:29and strengthening their position, talking to China about China exploiting Venezuela's oil.
06:35So, the moment's not lost yet, but it's just a clear mistake to stop with Maduro.
06:40And on Greenland, Trump has recently said that anything less than U.S. control of that territory,
06:48which belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark, is unacceptable to him.
06:53Do you think he's willing to use force, military force, to seize that territory?
06:58Ultimately, I don't think he will.
07:01I think just the talk, though, of using military force is costing the U.S. in terms you can't even
07:07calculate, in terms of trust and good faith and our reputation.
07:13And if we can say there, there's a new poll out today that shows exactly 8% of the American
07:18people favor the use of force to take Greenland.
07:21I'd like to ask that 8% if they even know where Greenland is.
07:24Yet he seems to be doubling down, Mr. Bolton.
07:26And he seems to be turning his back on diplomacy.
07:28His language is very clear.
07:30What could this mean for the U.S. reputation if he does move ahead with a seizure?
07:35And what could it mean for the NATO alliance?
07:38Well, I think it's a disaster for the United States.
07:40As I say, we're even talking about this.
07:42And it would be infinitely worse if he did try and use military force.
07:46I think there'd be a political earthquake in this country.
07:50There is essentially zero support.
07:53And certainly in Congress, it would be a matter of grave concern.
07:57And I think many people believe that if it happened, it would be the end of the NATO alliance
08:01and doing grave damage to U.S. national security, not to mention the other NATO allies.
08:08In the end, will we just see something more transactional?
08:12Do you think he'll opt for a deal, for example, by paying a lump sum to Greenlanders
08:16or striking some kind of agreement with the Danish government?
08:19Is he pushing here for a sale?
08:21Well, he will want to be able to declare victory on something, because after all, the world
08:26is divided into winners and losers, and he always wins.
08:30But it doesn't make it any easier to get to an agreement, which legitimately does concern
08:37U.S. national security, Canadian security, Danish security, the security of the entire
08:42NATO alliance against the growing Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic Ocean.
08:47So a quiet approach to this, I think, could really move fairly rapidly based on the 1951
08:54Danish-U.S. Defense of Greenland Treaty.
08:57I'd like to ask you about Ukraine.
09:00Trump has been pushing for a very rapid deal to end Russia's war.
09:05It doesn't seem to be coming.
09:07Europeans have pledged to very specific security guarantees by now.
09:12Do you think Trump is willing to do the same?
09:14Well, Trump may be willing to give security guarantees, but since it's still not clear
09:19he would even uphold Article 5 of the NATO treaty, words on a piece of paper are not the real
09:26answer here.
09:26The only way you can have a guarantee of Ukrainian security is if Russian troops are moving backward
09:33rather than moving forward.
09:36So I'm worried about the whole ceasefire approach.
09:39I'm afraid it may give Russia an advantage and that in Europe, people think if we can get
09:45a ceasefire, that's a real answer.
09:47It's not.
09:47It just gives Russia a pause to regroup, rebuild its army, refurbish its economy.
09:53Putin wants a Russian empire.
09:54He's told us this for 20 years.
09:57And in that kind of nationalist thinking, there's no Russian empire without the whole of Ukraine.
10:01That's what Putin wants.
10:03Do you think there's a risk here that Trump is losing patience and will sell out the Ukrainians?
10:07Well, I think he's losing patience because it's not getting him the Nobel Peace Prize that's
10:11really the end objective for him on almost everything we've been talking about.
10:16I don't know that it would necessarily mean he would sell out Ukraine.
10:19He might just withdraw from the issue because it's not making him a winner.
10:24And if the U.S. continued to supply intelligence to Ukraine, if we continued to sell weapons and
10:32ammunition to our European NATO allies who could pass it on to Ukraine, that I think might
10:38be sufficient to keep Ukraine going.
10:40That's not an ideal outcome from my point of view.
10:43But I think if we could get that minimum, then let Trump walk away.
10:47Final question, Mr. Bolton.
10:49You know, Trump promised to pursue an America first policy, a less interventionist approach.
10:56Some would say he's doing the complete opposite.
10:59How would you rate his foreign policy so far in his second term from one second term?
11:06Excuse me.
11:07From one to 10.
11:08How would you grade it?
11:10Well, around a two or three, I think a lot's incomplete.
11:13One thing we haven't talked about is his tariff policy, trade issues, which I do think are important
11:19for national security.
11:20They've been a complete disaster and harmed the United States in many ways, not just economic,
11:26but in reputational and political terms as well.
11:29So I don't think Trump really understands what he's doing.
11:32He doesn't have a national security grand strategy.
11:36Everything is transactional, episodic, ad hoc.
11:40And that's why he can completely reverse what he said during the campaign and not even see
11:45that he's contradicting himself.
11:46I think he's causing himself political difficulties with his own base for what he's doing.
11:51But that's his problem.
11:53Mr. Bolton, thank you so much for your time.
11:55Well, thanks for having me.
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