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US-Militäraktionen könnten „maßgeblich“ die Dynamik im Iran beeinflussen, sagt John Bolton

John Bolton, ehemaliger nationaler Sicherheitsberater von Präsident Trump, glaubt, dass die USA sich für „gezielte Angriffe“ auf den Iran entscheiden werden, da sich die Region auf eine militärische Intervention vorbereitet. Trump deutete an, dass amerikanische Hilfe „auf dem Weg“ sei.

LESEN SIE MEHR : http://de.euronews.com/2026/01/16/us-militaraktionen-konnten-massgeblich-die-dynamik-im-iran-beeinflussen-sagt-john-bolton

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00:00.
00:30for a potential U.S. attack.
00:33You've advised Mr. Trump in the past.
00:35Do you think he's now leaning towards military intervention?
00:39Is he preparing for war?
00:41Well, I think it's certainly the case he's looking at potential strikes
00:45against targets in Iran because of the protests.
00:49I believe for a long time that regime change in Iran
00:53is an absolute prerequisite for any hope of lasting peace and security
00:57in the Middle East and really to eliminate the threat
01:00of international terrorism and nuclear weapons
01:03that the regime in Tehran represents.
01:06I think the regime is weak.
01:07I think it's at its most vulnerable moment,
01:09perhaps even going back to 1979 when it took power.
01:15And so here, military action by the U.S. could have a decisive effect
01:18on the dynamic inside Iran.
01:21But you mentioned targeted military strikes.
01:24But if the endgame here is to finally topple the Ayatollah's regime,
01:30is that enough?
01:31Well, I think the targets to look at,
01:33obviously taking out whatever air defenses remained for Iran
01:37and for new ones the Russians may have supplied.
01:40But then I would look at striking the headquarters
01:43of the Revolutionary Guard, military bases of the Guard,
01:47the Basiji militia that has been instrumental
01:50in repressing the population, the Iranian Navy,
01:54the nuclear program, the ballistic missile program.
01:57And I think that would further debilitate the regime.
02:00And it would show to the opposition,
02:01we're not trying to harm Iran itself.
02:03It's the regime that's the target.
02:05It would give the opposition clear indication
02:08that the U.S. and the rest of the outside world are watching.
02:11So you think, Mr. Bolton,
02:12that we could be looking at the start of the end of the regime?
02:16Is that the endgame for the U.S.?
02:18Well, I hope so.
02:19I mean, we've been close to this point before.
02:21There's been enormous discontent in Iran
02:24for a variety of reasons, ethnic clashes.
02:29The young people are unhappy.
02:31Women are unhappy since the murder of Masyamini
02:34over two years ago.
02:36The economic situation is obviously extremely bad.
02:39But the outside world has basically sat back
02:42and done nothing now and permitted the regime
02:45to suppress the opposition.
02:47I think if we show that we are very much interested
02:52in what happens and favor the fall of the government,
02:57that that could have a very positive effect inside the country.
03:00And you mentioned the outside world.
03:02Do you think Europe also needs to step in here?
03:05What can it do?
03:06Well, Europe hasn't done much of anything, unfortunately.
03:08I think they should be working with the United States.
03:11We should all be working more with the opposition
03:13to provide resources, communications, for example,
03:16to help them coordinate better inside Iran.
03:19I think the situation is different now for a couple of reasons.
03:22Number one, the protest after the murder of Masyamini
03:26for neglecting to wear the hijab that the Ayatollahs prescribed
03:31was not just an issue about the dress code.
03:35The regime's basis of legitimacy is that it speaks the will of God.
03:40And when people say, well, we don't think wearing the hijab
03:43comes from God, it comes from the Ayatollahs,
03:46you're just not attacking that issue.
03:48You're attacking the very legitimacy of the Ayatollahs themselves.
03:52And that influence is still there.
03:54Plus, this time, the economic circumstances in Iran
03:57are really bad, worse than ever.
04:00And that's why the protests are so widespread,
04:03countrywide at this point.
04:05We hear Trump talking about coming to the aid of the Iranian people.
04:09We heard similar language when it came to Venezuela.
04:12Yet, Mr. Trump seems to be completely comfortable at the moment
04:16with having Nicolás Maduro sit in a New York prison
04:20while his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez,
04:23is at the helm in Caracas.
04:25She's a key figurehead of the Maduro regime.
04:29So, when you look at Venezuela,
04:31do you think Trump is really interested
04:33in changing autocracies into democracies?
04:36Or is it really, at the end,
04:38all about oil and the strength of the dollar and so on?
04:42Well, it's not really clear what Trump is interested in.
04:44I think we're on the verge of squandering an opportunity in Venezuela.
04:49I'm glad Maduro has been captured.
04:51But the regime in power in Caracas
04:53is the Maduro regime without Maduro.
04:56And if we're not careful,
04:57that regime will entrench itself.
04:59And the people will still not be able to take control of the government.
05:03And it will also mean that there's not going to be
05:05any substantial external investment in Venezuela in the oil industry.
05:10So, the poverty there will continue.
05:12Trump himself tweeted to the Iranian opposition,
05:15take control of your institutions.
05:17Well, that's what he should be saying in Venezuela as well.
05:20That is how you help overthrow the repressive regime.
05:24He is due to meet the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, very soon.
05:30Do you think that could change anything?
05:32Or is Trump really not interested in a proper democratic transition in Venezuela?
05:36Well, I think this is a good opportunity for Machado to say,
05:39look, if you don't have representative government in Venezuela,
05:43you're never going to have a rule of law society.
05:46You're going to be subject to the arbitrary will of the Maduro regime.
05:50And those circumstances mean foreign investors are not going to come in.
05:53They're not going to risk, especially in the oil sector,
05:57billions of dollars of investment that some dictator can just grab away from them.
06:01So, for Trump's own purposes, putting the opposition in Venezuela in power is important.
06:07And perhaps she can persuade or explain to him why that's important.
06:12If he fails to do that, is that a strategic failure for the U.S., do you feel?
06:16I think it could well be.
06:17I think what the regime in Caracas is doing now is shoring up its support from the military,
06:23the police, the colectivos, the motorcycle gangs that they use to intimidate the population,
06:29and strengthening their position, talking to China about China exploiting Venezuela's oil.
06:35So, the moment's not lost yet, but it's just a clear mistake to stop with Maduro.
06:40And on Greenland, Trump has recently said that anything less than U.S. control of that territory,
06:48which belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark, is unacceptable to him.
06:53Do you think he's willing to use force, military force, to seize that territory?
06:58Ultimately, I don't think he will.
07:01I think just the talk, though, of using military force is costing the U.S. in terms you can't even
07:07calculate, in terms of trust and good faith and our reputation.
07:13And if we can say there, there's a new poll out today that shows exactly 8% of the American
07:18people favor the use of force to take Greenland.
07:21I'd like to ask that 8% if they even know where Greenland is.
07:24Yet he seems to be doubling down, Mr. Bolton.
07:26And he seems to be turning his back on diplomacy.
07:28His language is very clear.
07:30What could this mean for the U.S. reputation if he does move ahead with a seizure?
07:35And what could it mean for the NATO alliance?
07:38Well, I think it's a disaster for the United States.
07:40As I say, we're even talking about this.
07:42And it would be infinitely worse if he did try and use military force.
07:46I think there'd be a political earthquake in this country.
07:50There is essentially zero support.
07:53And certainly in Congress, it would be a matter of grave concern.
07:57And I think many people believe that if it happened, it would be the end of the NATO alliance
08:01and doing grave damage to U.S. national security, not to mention the other NATO allies.
08:08In the end, will we just see something more transactional?
08:12Do you think he'll opt for a deal, for example, by paying a lump sum to Greenlanders
08:16or striking some kind of agreement with the Danish government?
08:19Is he pushing here for a sale?
08:21Well, he will want to be able to declare victory on something, because after all, the world
08:26is divided into winners and losers, and he always wins.
08:30But it doesn't make it any easier to get to an agreement, which legitimately does concern
08:37U.S. national security, Canadian security, Danish security, the security of the entire
08:42NATO alliance against the growing Russian and Chinese threats in the Arctic Ocean.
08:47So a quiet approach to this, I think, could really move fairly rapidly based on the 1951
08:54Danish-U.S. Defense of Greenland Treaty.
08:57I'd like to ask you about Ukraine.
09:00Trump has been pushing for a very rapid deal to end Russia's war.
09:05It doesn't seem to be coming.
09:07Europeans have pledged to very specific security guarantees by now.
09:12Do you think Trump is willing to do the same?
09:14Well, Trump may be willing to give security guarantees, but since it's still not clear
09:19he would even uphold Article 5 of the NATO treaty, words on a piece of paper are not the real
09:26answer here.
09:26The only way you can have a guarantee of Ukrainian security is if Russian troops are moving backward
09:33rather than moving forward.
09:36So I'm worried about the whole ceasefire approach.
09:39I'm afraid it may give Russia an advantage and that in Europe, people think if we can get
09:45a ceasefire, that's a real answer.
09:47It's not.
09:47It just gives Russia a pause to regroup, rebuild its army, refurbish its economy.
09:53Putin wants a Russian empire.
09:54He's told us this for 20 years.
09:57And in that kind of nationalist thinking, there's no Russian empire without the whole of Ukraine.
10:01That's what Putin wants.
10:03Do you think there's a risk here that Trump is losing patience and will sell out the Ukrainians?
10:07Well, I think he's losing patience because it's not getting him the Nobel Peace Prize that's
10:11really the end objective for him on almost everything we've been talking about.
10:16I don't know that it would necessarily mean he would sell out Ukraine.
10:19He might just withdraw from the issue because it's not making him a winner.
10:24And if the U.S. continued to supply intelligence to Ukraine, if we continued to sell weapons and
10:32ammunition to our European NATO allies who could pass it on to Ukraine, that I think might
10:38be sufficient to keep Ukraine going.
10:40That's not an ideal outcome from my point of view.
10:43But I think if we could get that minimum, then let Trump walk away.
10:47Final question, Mr. Bolton.
10:49You know, Trump promised to pursue an America first policy, a less interventionist approach.
10:56Some would say he's doing the complete opposite.
10:59How would you rate his foreign policy so far in his second term from one second term?
11:06Excuse me.
11:07From one to 10.
11:08How would you grade it?
11:10Well, around a two or three, I think a lot's incomplete.
11:13One thing we haven't talked about is his tariff policy, trade issues, which I do think are important
11:19for national security.
11:20They've been a complete disaster and harmed the United States in many ways, not just economic,
11:26but in reputational and political terms as well.
11:29So I don't think Trump really understands what he's doing.
11:32He doesn't have a national security grand strategy.
11:36Everything is transactional, episodic, ad hoc.
11:40And that's why he can completely reverse what he said during the campaign and not even see
11:45that he's contradicting himself.
11:46I think he's causing himself political difficulties with his own base for what he's doing.
11:51But that's his problem.
11:53Mr. Bolton, thank you so much for your time.
11:55Well, thanks for having me.
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