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Europe Today: Iran-Krieg, Tag zwölf; Europa klagt über fehlende Strategie
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00:15Untertitelung des ZDF für funk, 2017
00:32German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
00:34says he's becoming deeply concerned
00:36about what he calls an apparent
00:38lack of strategy from the United States
00:40and Israel. He said that
00:42they have no interest in, he has said
00:44he's no interest in a quote endless war.
00:47And while you were sleeping tensions
00:48in the Middle East escalated with heavy
00:50strikes hitting Iran, Lebanon
00:52and the Gulf states, civilian casualties
00:54are rising and in Lebanon
00:56thousands of people have already been
00:58displaced. The US says it's
01:00destroyed 16 Iranian mine
01:02laying vessels after Pentagon Chief Pete Heggs
01:04had warned that the most intense day
01:06of US strikes on Iran was yet to
01:08come. For more on the ongoing
01:10war and Europe's reactions we're joined here in the
01:12studio by our EU news editor
01:14Maria Tadeo. Good morning Maria. So a lot
01:16to process this morning. Fill us in.
01:18Well a lot to process because this is still a story
01:20obviously about war
01:22in the region and
01:24energy which is critical of course
01:26for the global
01:28economy and once again is the
01:30spotlight on the Strait of Hormuz
01:32and oil and
01:34of course there are now concerns
01:36increasing concerns that this is an area that now
01:38Iran will target with
01:40mines and obviously that means
01:42that that transportation and
01:44the flows of oil which need to come
01:46out of the Strait also coming out of the Gulf
01:48of Persia too could be
01:50impacted even more severely
01:52and this is one of the most critical locations
01:54when it comes to the global
01:55energy market. This is why we're seeing this
01:57whiplash and energy prices up
01:59and down on any news related
02:02to the ability to get
02:03oil out of the region. Now
02:05on that note yesterday President Trump
02:07issued a warning in a
02:09post on social media in which he
02:12said if the mines you know for
02:14some reason are placed and they are not
02:15removed for with so immediately
02:17the military consequences to
02:20Iran will be quote at a level
02:22never seen before
02:23so obviously that's the US
02:26responding again to
02:28reports that this is the next stage
02:30for Iran when it comes to the strategy
02:32of now escalation but also
02:34chaos with no signs that
02:36the regime or the new Ayatollah is willing
02:37to engage for the time being
02:39with the US and the story
02:41as I say is critical and it really matters
02:43not just because of the energy market
02:45the implications for the economy
02:47but also because it really speaks
02:49to the US strategy. You alluded
02:52to the German Chancellor saying
02:53we are confused. Is there a
02:55goal post? Is there a goal? What is
02:57the goal? What is the strategy
02:59from the US? And the thing about the energy
03:01market is that it never lies. You're
03:03either able to get the flow of
03:05oil up and running or you're not
03:07and if you're not and the escalation in the
03:09Strait of Hormuz continues to go up and you
03:11do see that tankers become blocked
03:13not only this is going to have major repercussions
03:15in the market but it also could show
03:18and this is a fundamental point
03:19that the US alongside Israel of course
03:21has gone into a major military
03:23operation without all the details
03:25figured out. So this is a critical
03:27point at this stage.
03:29And that's why Emmanuel Macron he's
03:31hosting a G7 call today.
03:32Yes precisely. Of course we've seen
03:35the G7 meet on the finance
03:37sphere with the ministers of finance
03:39then of course the energy ministers
03:41who met yesterday but today
03:42this is a meeting that is going to take
03:44place at 3 p.m. Paris time. It is
03:46hosted by the French and Emmanuel Macron
03:48because the French hold the presidency
03:50and of course President Trump is going
03:52to participate. Now sources close to
03:54the lease say that the goal of this
03:56meeting is to take stock of the
03:58geo-economic repercussions of this war
04:00and in particular when it comes to
04:03energy. Obviously there's been a lot of
04:04debate around the idea of releasing
04:06strategic oil reserves to really deal
04:09with the issues in the energy market
04:10although I speak to many analysts who
04:12say the issue is not the stocking really
04:14the oil is there. The issue is the
04:16transportation and the impact on
04:17prices. And then to that extent
04:19however we also have to keep an eye
04:21today on the International Energy
04:24Agency because overnight reports that
04:26they could also release and make the
04:29biggest single-day release of oil
04:31even surpassing the 182 million
04:33barrels that they put out in 2022 when
04:35the war in Ukraine broke out to deal
04:37with the implications and the
04:38ramifications in the energy market. But
04:40again one of the fundamental questions
04:42beyond pricing and just logistics is
04:44there a plan really to get oil coming
04:47out and does the US really have a
04:48strategy? And to more confusion just
04:50briefly yesterday the US Secretary for
04:52Energy said that they had managed to
04:54escort tankers out. Then he deleted it
04:56and it was obvious that no tanker had
04:58been escorted out. So again there's a
05:00lot of confusion not just in the
05:02logistics but really is there a plan?
05:04And of course you had the opportunity to
05:05speak to the European Commissioner for
05:07Energy Dan Jorgensen. He was in
05:08Salzburg yesterday. We can take a look now at that interview Maria.
05:11This is of course a very serious situation. It is not as bad as in February 22 when Russia
05:18attacked Ukraine. At that time we were more
05:21dependent on one single source of our energy and it was fossil, it was gas from
05:25Russia. Now we are better situated to deal with the situation but still when the world market prices go up
05:33it is a problem for us which shows us one thing very clearly that is let's get rid of the
05:38dependency of fossil fuels. Let's have more homegrown clean energy.
05:43And of course the G7 has been holding meetings. There's a lot of speculation about a release of strategic reserves.
05:48Is that something that you think would be helpful at this stage?
05:51It is something that can become relevant. It would help keep the prices down. We are not in a situation
05:57where we have security of supply issues in Europe right now.
06:01But of course the question of the prices are extremely important for our citizens and our industries and we also
06:09need to be working in solidarity with our partners in the international energy agency network.
06:15So is there going to be a release of these assets or is it something that at this point there's
06:20consensus is a good idea but not a date? What would trigger it?
06:23That is too early to say we are in the process of analyzing this but of course it can happen.
06:29And of course your job is to ensure energy security for the European Union. You say this is different to
06:34the Russian invasion but there is a question of pricing. What measures in the short term can you put forward
06:39to deal with the escalation in prices?
06:40Of course there is a very clear concern for us that the prices are too high for our citizens and
06:47our industry. That's also why today we've put forward several different measures both some that has the aim to help
06:55our long term transition but also some that can work short term.
06:58For instance we've sent a very clear signal to the member states of the Union and we recommend that you
07:03lower the taxes on electricity.
07:06That would make it easier for your industry to compete. It will make it easier for your citizens to pay
07:11their bills and it will be good for the green transition.
07:14And you can do that tomorrow. It's not something where you have to wait for a new legislative proposal to
07:20be put forward for long negotiations and so forth. It can be done short term.
07:24And is that the maximum that you contemplate or is there more things that you could put on the table
07:28if the situation deteriorates?
07:30There's definitely more things that can be put on the table. It's also very clear that there's a big difference
07:35between being in a serious situation like the one we're in now and being in an emergency like the one
07:42we had in 22.
07:43And since we're not there yet we are not applying some of the emergency measures that we did in 22.
07:48There has been calls now that leaders could ask certainly next week when they meet and they talk about competitors
07:54for another review of the ETS. Is that something that you would say yes everything can be reviewed?
08:01We are of course continuously discussing what to do with regards to our long term transition in the European Union
08:08whilst at the same time addressing immediate needs.
08:12What's important for me to say is that our fundamental direction is the right one. We need to move away
08:18from fossils. We need to have a green transition.
08:20Why? Because it lowers prices, because it helps us decarbonize, but also because it gives us the energy security that
08:27we so clearly do not have right now.
08:30That's the lesson we learned from the situation in Ukraine when Russia attacked.
08:34But it's actually also a lesson that we are reminded now that other geopolitical events are affecting our price levels
08:43in Europe.
08:43Of course, you hear the industry saying the issues that Europe does not have energy security. You cannot be competitive
08:49if you do not have energy security.
08:51Is that an exaggeration or do you look at it and you say it's a fair point at this point
08:55Europe does not have that level of security?
08:57No, unfortunately, it's very clear that we are not independent. We import for more than 370 billion euros fossils every
09:05year.
09:06That's not sustainable for our climate, certainly, but not for our economy either. We need to use more homegrown energy.
09:14The good news is that that homegrown energy will also be cheaper than the fossil alternatives.
09:19So not only will it help us to become more independent and therefore be good for our security, it'll also
09:24be good for our economy.
09:26Now, this is not something that might happen in the future and that we're waiting for. This is something that
09:31we are already doing.
09:32So last year we deployed a record of 89 gigawatts of new renewables that saved us more than 30 billion
09:39euros, just this newly deployed renewables.
09:43And this year we will do the same. So we are moving in the right direction.
09:47But when are you going to see that manifested in prices, however, especially given this volatility?
09:51Because the direction of prices has been up, certainly for the past week.
09:54The deployment of new renewables brings the prices down.
09:57This means that had we not had the renewables that we have, the prices would have been much higher.
10:01That's one of the reasons why we don't see the same effects now as we did in 2022.
10:06So when prices are set for electricity, for instance, the most cheap energy bids first, and that's the renewables.
10:13Then sometimes if you don't have enough renewables in the system and it's the fossils that set the price, the
10:19gas that sets the price, that's when the prices go up.
10:21Also on the renewables. And the less hours, the better we can become at having less hours of the fossil
10:30setting the price, the better, of course, it is.
10:33So that's one of the reasons. I know it's a bit complicated, but that's one of the reasons why we
10:36are in a better situation now than we were in 2022.
10:39The Russian president has said that Russia is ready to intervene in this market to stabilize prices.
10:44When you hear that, what does that make you think? What does that allude to you?
10:48We absolutely do not want Russian energy. Russia is conducting a terrible war on our friends in Ukraine, and we
10:56do not want to help indirectly finance that war by buying Russian energy.
11:01Russia's weaponized energy against us. Russia's blackmailed member states of the European Union using energy.
11:07So for us, we've said no more to this, and that is a standpoint that we will stick to.
11:16Now, the war in Iran has spread to Lebanon, where Israel has vowed to root out the Iran-backed Shia
11:22militia Hezbollah.
11:23Thousands of people are on the move, mostly from south Lebanon, from a war that has already caused almost 600
11:30deaths in the country.
11:31In a last-ditch effort to stop the violence, the Lebanese government asked for direct talks with Israel through a
11:37U.S. intermediary.
11:38So far, the U.S. and Israel have rebuffed the proposal, albeit not officially saying the government should focus on
11:44disarming Hezbollah.
11:45Your News' senior editor and Middle East expert Sophie Claudet spoke to Lebanon's energy minister, Joe Sadi. Here's what he
11:51had to say.
11:52This was indeed a very courageous initiative by our president. But as of this time, I am not aware of
12:04any response yet.
12:06But don't you think it's a little too late? As per the 2024 ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, the
12:14Lebanese government was supposed to disarm Hezbollah.
12:16This hasn't happened. And we've seen now what's happening.
12:20Obviously, I think everybody would wish that the implementation of this would happen much quicker.
12:28But this has to do on one side with, you know, the availability of the capabilities of the Lebanese army.
12:39It has to do with also, you know, the behavior of Israel during that whole period.
12:48But does the army have even the capabilities of disarming Hezbollah, which is a state within the states?
12:54Based on what I'm not, I'm no military expert, but this is what the army says.
12:59They do not have all the capabilities they need to do this by their own account.
13:07Which is why, if you're in anger, there was a plan to do it in multiple phases.
13:12Prime Minister Netanyahu has been very clear in his will to completely root out Hezbollah.
13:18And I may remind our viewers that Hezbollah is not only a military faction,
13:23it's also a political and social movement that is deeply rooted in Lebanon.
13:28Do you think that Israel can root out Hezbollah?
13:30The military side of Hezbollah has now been declared illegal by our government.
13:36The political and prime minister did say that if Hezbollah was to date of that purely as a political party,
13:48then he would have no problem with it.
13:52But I understand the Lebanese authorities can live with Hezbollah being a political social movement,
14:00but Israel is increasingly showing signs that it cannot.
14:03And Hezbollah is an ideology. How can you defeat an ideology?
14:07The way forward is to show what the state can do, deliver basic goods and services on all fronts,
14:18health, social, education, etc.
14:21But for the state to be able to deliver this, it needs political willingness, which I think it has,
14:28but it also needs financial means.
14:30And unfortunately, Hezbollah dragging us again back into the war,
14:37it makes the availability of international funding that much more difficult and distant in time.
14:46Do you think if the Iranian regime was completely defeated, that would significantly weaken Hezbollah as a movement,
14:53as an ideology, as a popular movement in Lebanon?
14:56The lifeline, there is a financial lifeline for Hezbollah coming from Iran.
15:01They've said it so publicly.
15:02There is a military one probably that has severely decreased since the regime change in Syria,
15:10but certainly on the financial front as well.
15:13And so any reduction, any major reduction,
15:18and both on the military side and the financial side,
15:21in terms of lifeline to Hezbollah certainly would weaken it.
15:29And with the situation in the Middle East getting worse and thousands now internally displaced,
15:34with some stadiums even turned into shelters,
15:36the EU Agency for Asylum is preparing for potential humanitarian crisis.
15:40This is our Jakub Janus reports.
15:44War. War never changes.
15:47But while the news cycle obsesses over tactical maps,
15:51your reporter is looking at the people.
15:53President Trump has called the conflict
15:56A short-term excursion.
15:58But if he's wrong,
15:59Europe could deal with a refugee crisis of an unprecedented magnitude.
16:03And history shows that when a home becomes a battlefield,
16:06people move towards safety and existing ties.
16:09So where could they go?
16:12Currently, roughly 4 million Iranians live abroad,
16:15and most of them migrated during or after the 1979 revolution.
16:21In Europe, Germany leads with over 300,000 people,
16:25followed by the UK and Sweden, with each hosting around 100,000.
16:30In 2025, only 8,000 Iranians sought asylum in Europe,
16:35which is less than 1% of all applications.
16:38But with a population of 90 million,
16:42the EU Asylum Agency warns that even partial instability
16:45could trigger a massive refugee crisis.
16:48However, the agency also calls this scenario highly speculative,
16:53stressing it is too early for firm predictions.
16:56But you should know this isn't only about Iran.
16:59It is about the whole region.
17:01Iran is already one of the world's largest refugee hosts,
17:06a home to over one and a half million of them,
17:09and many more with an undocumented status.
17:12Most of refugees come from Afghanistan and Iraq,
17:15and are now caught in just another war zone.
17:19And the ripple effect is spreading.
17:20According to the International Organization for Migration,
17:24over 660,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon because of the conflict.
17:30And right now, no one knows yet how or when the war will end.
17:36But for Europe, it seems that the consequences are no longer distant.
17:45And it is in this very context that MEPs are gathering in Strasbourg this week.
17:50European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
17:52is set to address the Parliament this morning.
17:54For more on that, we can now cross over to the European Parliament in Strasbourg
17:58and bring in your news as Marit Gwynne-Jones.
18:00Good morning, Marit.
18:01So Ursula von der Leyen will take centre stage today
18:04at a very tense time for the European Union
18:05and also for inter-institutional relations.
18:08Tell us more.
18:11Yes, Maeve.
18:12Expect a fiery debate when the Commission President
18:15joins the hemicycle later this morning.
18:19For two reasons, really.
18:20Because firstly, members of this Parliament have been telling me in recent days
18:25that they feel that von der Leyen has been really overstepping her mandate
18:30in response to the conflict in the Middle East.
18:32That she's been wading into foreign policy when she shouldn't,
18:35encroaching on the role of the EU foreign policy chief, Kaya Callas.
18:40I remember that von der Leyen was the compromise candidate back in 2019,
18:43but her critics say that since then she's been using crises like this one
18:46to accumulate power and to expand her mandate into a more geopolitical one.
18:51And in fact, von der Leyen did deliver a speech earlier this week
18:54where she essentially laid out a new vision for the way that EU conducts its foreign policy,
18:59saying it has to stop being a custodian of the old world order, she said,
19:04and that it essentially faces two choices.
19:06It either clings on, she said, to what used to make it strong,
19:10or it adapts to a more power-politics world by pursuing a more interest-based foreign policy.
19:16We've had quite a harsh response from socialist voices.
19:19The European Council President, Antonio Costa,
19:21saying yesterday that EU still needs to be a standard-bearer.
19:26Also, the Vice President of the Commission, Teresa Ribeira, another socialist voice,
19:31saying yesterday in response to von der Leyen's speech, she said,
19:34it was not the most adequate manner to express herself,
19:38but yes, she is fully committed, of course, to the international order.
19:43We've also seen a response from the Spanish government saying that the EU has to uphold the rules-based order.
19:49So, Maeve, I think we can expect these tensions to really play out when von der Leyen addresses the hemicycle
19:54this morning.
19:55Indeed. Mary Gwynne-Jones, thank you so much for that live update there from Strasbourg.
19:59But that does bring this edition of Europe Today to an end.
20:03For more news and analysis, do visit euronews.com.
20:05Thank you so much, though, for tuning in.
20:07As always, take care and see you very soon on Euronews.
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