00:00Dla mnie jest
00:08President Donald Trump
00:10former national security advisor
00:12John Bolton
00:13he served during Trump's first term
00:16but has since become
00:17one of the president's fiercest critics
00:20Mr. Bolton
00:21welcome
00:21thank you so much for joining us
00:22thank you for having me
00:24so I'd like to start with the situation in Iran
00:26we're hearing that
00:28the region is getting prepared
00:30for a potential U.S. attack
00:33you've advised Mr. Trump in the past
00:35do you think he's now leaning
00:37towards military intervention
00:39is he preparing for war
00:41well I think it's certainly the case
00:43he's looking at potential strikes
00:45against targets in Iran
00:47because of the protest
00:49I believe for a long time
00:51that regime change in Iran
00:53is an absolute prerequisite
00:55for any hope of lasting peace
00:57and security in the Middle East
00:58and really to eliminate the threat
01:00of international terrorism
01:02and nuclear weapons
01:03that the regime in Tehran represents
01:06I think the regime is weak
01:07I think it's at its most vulnerable moment
01:09perhaps even going back to 1979
01:12when it took power
01:14and so here military action by the U.S.
01:17could have a decisive effect
01:19on the dynamic inside Iran
01:21but you mentioned targeted military strikes
01:24but if the end game here
01:26is to finally topple the Ayatollah's regime
01:29is that enough?
01:30Well I think the targets to look at
01:33obviously taking out whatever air defenses
01:35remained for Iran
01:37or new ones the Russians may have supplied
01:40but then I would look at
01:41striking the headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard
01:45military bases of the Guard
01:47the Basiji militia
01:48that has been instrumental
01:50in repressing the population
01:51the Iranian Navy
01:54the nuclear program
01:55the ballistic missile program
01:57and I think that would further debilitate the regime
02:00and it would show to the opposition
02:01we're not trying to harm Iran itself
02:03it's the regime that's the target
02:05it would give the opposition clear indication
02:08that the U.S. and the rest of the outside world are watching
02:11So you think Mr. Bolton
02:12that we could be looking at the start of the end of the regime
02:16is that the end game for the U.S.
02:18Well I hope so
02:19I mean we've been close to this point before
02:21there's been enormous discontent in Iran
02:25for a variety of reasons
02:26ethnic clashes
02:29the young people are unhappy
02:31women are unhappy
02:32since the murder of Masyamini over two years ago
02:36the economic situation is obviously extremely bad
02:39but the outside world has basically sat back and done nothing
02:43now and permitted the regime
02:45to suppress the opposition
02:47I think if we show that we are very much interested in what happens
02:53and favor the fall of the government
02:57that that could have a very positive effect inside the country
03:00And you mentioned the outside world
03:01do you think Europe also needs to step in here?
03:05What can it do?
03:06Well Europe hasn't done much of anything unfortunately
03:08I think they should be working with the United States
03:11we should all be working more with the opposition
03:13to provide resources
03:14communications for example
03:16to help them coordinate better inside Iran
03:19I think the situation is different now
03:21for a couple of reasons
03:22number one
03:23the protest after the murder of Masyamini
03:26for neglecting to wear the hijab
03:30that the Ayatollahs prescribed
03:31was not just an issue about the dress code
03:35that the regime's basis of legitimacy
03:37is that it speaks the will of God
03:39and when people say
03:41well we don't think wearing the hijab comes from God
03:44it comes from the Ayatollahs
03:46you're just not attacking that issue
03:48you're attacking the very legitimacy
03:50of the Ayatollahs themselves
03:52and that influence is still there
03:54plus this time
03:55the economic circumstances in Iran
03:57are really bad
03:59worse than ever
04:00and that's why the protests are so widespread
04:03countrywide at this point
04:05we hear Trump talking about
04:06coming to the aid of the Iranian people
04:09we heard similar language
04:11when it came to Venezuela
04:12yet Mr. Trump seems to be
04:14completely comfortable at the moment
04:16with having Nicolás Maduro
04:18sit in a New York prison
04:20while his vice president
04:22Delcy Rodríguez
04:23is at the helm in Caracas
04:25she is a key figurehead
04:27of the Maduro regime
04:29so when you look at Venezuela
04:31do you think Trump is really interested
04:33in changing autocracies into democracies
04:36or is it really at the end
04:38all about oil
04:40and the strength of the dollar
04:41and so on?
04:42Well it's not really clear
04:43what Trump is interested in
04:44I think we're on the verge of
04:46squandering an opportunity
04:47in Venezuela
04:48I'm glad Maduro has been captured
04:51but the regime in power in Caracas
04:53is the Maduro regime
04:55without Maduro
04:56and if we're not careful
04:57that regime will entrench itself
04:59and the people will still not be able
05:02to take control of the government
05:03and it will also mean
05:04that there's not going to be
05:05any substantial external investment
05:08in Venezuela
05:08in the oil industry
05:10so the poverty there will continue
05:11Trump himself tweeted
05:13to the Iranian opposition
05:14take control of your institutions
05:17well that's what he should be saying
05:19in Venezuela as well
05:20that is how you help overthrow
05:22the repressive regime
05:24he is due to meet
05:25the opposition leader
05:27Maria Corina Machado
05:28very soon
05:29do you think that could change anything
05:31or is Trump really
05:33not interested in
05:34a proper democratic transition
05:35in Venezuela?
05:36Well I think
05:37this is a good opportunity
05:38for Machado to say
05:39look if you don't have
05:41representative government
05:42in Venezuela
05:43you're never going to have
05:44a rule of law society
05:46you're going to be subject
05:47to the arbitrary will
05:48of the Maduro regime
05:50and those circumstances
05:51mean foreign investors
05:52are not going to come in
05:53they're not going to risk
05:55especially in the oil sector
05:57billions of dollars
05:58of investment
05:58that some dictator
06:00can just grab away from them
06:01so for Trump's own purposes
06:03putting the opposition
06:05in Venezuela in power
06:06is important
06:07and perhaps she can
06:08persuade or explain to him
06:10why that's important
06:11If he fails to do that
06:13is that a strategic failure
06:15for the US
06:15do you feel?
06:16I think it could well be
06:17I think what the regime
06:19in Caracas is doing now
06:20is shoring up its support
06:21from the military
06:23the police
06:24the colectivos
06:25the motorcycle gangs
06:26that they use to
06:27intimidate the population
06:29and strengthening their position
06:31talking to China
06:32about China
06:33exploiting Venezuela's oil
06:35so the moment's not lost yet
06:37but it's just a clear mistake
06:39to stop with Maduro
06:40And on Greenland
06:42Trump has recently said
06:44that anything less
06:45than US control
06:47of that territory
06:48which belongs
06:49to the Kingdom of Denmark
06:50is unacceptable to him
06:52Do you think he's willing
06:54to use force
06:56military force
06:57to seize that territory?
06:59Ultimately
06:59I don't think he will
07:01I think
07:02just the talk though
07:03of using military force
07:04is costing the US
07:06in terms you can't even calculate
07:08in terms of trust
07:09and good faith
07:10and our reputation
07:12and if we can say there
07:14there's a new poll out today
07:15that shows exactly
07:168% of the American people
07:18favour the use of force
07:20to take Greenland
07:20I'd like to ask that 8%
07:22if they even know
07:23where Greenland is
07:24Yet he seems to be
07:25doubling down
07:26Mr Bolton
07:26he seems to be
07:27turning his back
07:27on diplomacy
07:28his language is very clear
07:30what could this mean
07:31for the US reputation
07:32if he does move ahead
07:34with a seizure
07:35and what could it mean
07:36for the NATO alliance?
07:37Well I think it's a disaster
07:39for the United States
07:40as I say
07:40that we're even talking
07:41about this
07:42and it would be
07:42it would be infinitely worse
07:44if he did try
07:45and use military force
07:46I think there'd be
07:47a political earthquake
07:48in this country
07:49that there is
07:50essentially
07:51zero support
07:53and certainly in Congress
07:55it would be
07:55a matter of grave concern
07:57and I think many people
07:58believe
07:58that if it happened
08:00it would be the end
08:00of the NATO alliance
08:01and a grave
08:03a grave
08:04doing grave damage
08:05to US national security
08:06not to mention
08:07the other NATO allies
08:08In the end
08:09will we just see
08:10something more transactional
08:12do you think he'll opt
08:12for a deal
08:13for example
08:13by paying a lump sum
08:15to Greenlanders
08:16or striking some kind
08:17of agreement
08:18with the Danish government
08:19is he pushing here
08:20for a sale?
08:21Well he will want
08:22to be able to declare
08:23victory on something
08:24because after all
08:26the world is divided
08:27into winners and losers
08:28and he always wins
08:29but it's not
08:32it doesn't make it
08:33any easier
08:34to get to an agreement
08:35which legitimately
08:36does concern
08:37US national security
08:38Canadian security
08:40Danish security
08:41the security
08:41of the entire
08:42NATO alliance
08:43against the growing
08:44Russian and Chinese
08:45threats in the Arctic Ocean
08:47so a quiet approach
08:49to this
08:49I think
08:50could really move
08:51fairly rapidly
08:52based on the 1951
08:54Danish-US
08:55defensive Greenland treaty
08:57I'd like to ask you
08:58about Ukraine
08:59Trump has been pushing
09:01for a very rapid deal
09:03to end Russia's war
09:05it doesn't seem
09:06to be coming
09:06Europeans have pledged
09:08to very specific
09:09security guarantees
09:11by now
09:12do you think
09:13Trump is willing
09:13to do the same?
09:15Well Trump may be willing
09:16to give security guarantees
09:17but since it's still
09:19not clear
09:19he would even uphold
09:20Article 5
09:21of the NATO treaty
09:22words on a piece of paper
09:25are not the real answer here
09:26the only way
09:28you can have
09:28a guarantee
09:30of Ukrainian security
09:31is if Russian troops
09:32are moving backward
09:33rather than moving forward
09:35so I'm worried
09:37about the whole
09:38ceasefire approach
09:39I'm afraid
09:39it may give Russia
09:40an advantage
09:41and that
09:42in Europe
09:43people think
09:44if we can get a ceasefire
09:45that's a real answer
09:46it's not
09:47it just gives Russia
09:48a pause
09:49to regroup
09:50rebuild its army
09:51refurbish its economy
09:52Putin wants
09:53a Russian empire
09:54he's told us this
09:55for 20 years
09:56and in that kind
09:57of nationalist thinking
09:58there's no Russian empire
10:00without the whole of Ukraine
10:01that's what Putin wants
10:02Do you think
10:03there's a risk here
10:04that Trump
10:04is losing patience
10:05and will sell out
10:06the Ukrainians?
10:07Well I think
10:08he's losing patience
10:08because it's not
10:09getting him
10:10the Nobel Peace Prize
10:11that's really
10:11the end objective
10:13for him
10:13on almost everything
10:14we've been talking about
10:15I don't know
10:17that it would necessarily
10:17mean he would sell out
10:19Ukraine
10:19he might just
10:20withdraw from the issue
10:21because it's not
10:22making him a winner
10:23and if
10:24if the US
10:27continued to supply
10:28intelligence to Ukraine
10:29if we continued
10:30to sell weapons
10:32and ammunition
10:32to our European
10:33NATO allies
10:34who could pass it
10:35on to Ukraine
10:36that I think
10:37might be sufficient
10:38to keep Ukraine going
10:40that's not
10:41an ideal outcome
10:42from my point of view
10:43but I think
10:44if we could get
10:45that minimum
10:45then let Trump
10:46walk away
10:47Final question
10:48Mr. Bolton
10:48you know
10:49Trump promised
10:50to pursue
10:51an America
10:52first policy
10:54a less
10:55interventionist
10:56approach
10:56some would say
10:57he's doing
10:57the complete
10:58opposite
10:59how would you
11:00rate his
11:01foreign policy
11:03so far
11:03in his
11:04second term
11:05from one
11:05second term
11:06excuse me
11:07from one to ten
11:08how would you
11:09grade it?
11:10Well around
11:10a two or three
11:11I think
11:11a lot's incomplete
11:12one thing
11:13we haven't talked
11:14about is his
11:14tariff policy
11:15trade issues
11:17which I do think
11:18are important
11:19for national security
11:20they've been
11:20a complete disaster
11:21and harmed
11:23the United States
11:24in many ways
11:25not just economic
11:26but in reputational
11:27and political terms
11:28as well
11:29so I don't think
11:30Trump really
11:30understands
11:31what he's doing
11:32he doesn't have
11:33a national security
11:34grand strategy
11:35everything is
11:37transactional
11:37episodic
11:38ad hoc
11:39and that's why
11:40he can completely
11:41reverse what he said
11:42during the campaign
11:43and not even see
11:45that he's contradicting
11:46himself
11:46I think he's
11:47causing himself
11:47political difficulties
11:49with his own base
11:50for what he's doing
11:51but that's his problem
11:53Mr. Bolton
11:53thank you so much
11:54for your time
11:54well thanks for having me
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