Widespread rain and storms for the south-east

Australian Community Media

Rainy weather to hit much of the east coast beginning January 14, 2026.

Transcript

00:00A weather event brewing across southeastern Australia will bring widespread severe thunderstorms

00:05to some parts, heavy rain and damaging winds to others, mostly affecting NSW, Victoria and

00:11ACT.

00:12I'm Angus here at the Bureau of Meteorology, it's the 14th of January and here's an update

00:16about what we can expect in the next few days across southeastern Australia.

00:21Let's set the scene, paint the picture if you will, our main weather feature at the

00:25moment is this fairly innocuous looking dashed blue line.

00:29It's a low pressure trough which for Wednesday, for today, is sitting slow moving across western

00:36NSW, also tailing into eastern Victoria as well.

00:40As it does remain fairly slow moving on Wednesday, it's helping to draw in very humid air from

00:45the east which is going to fuel this weather event in the coming few days.

00:49As we play through now tomorrow into Thursday, initially it looks much the same.

00:54This low pressure trough does not move very fast on Thursday morning but throughout the

00:57course of the day, it will deepen and intensify and eventually we'll see a low pressure area

01:03develop along this trough line.

01:05There it is, popping up over western NSW.

01:07Now that low pressure area is going to act to enhance the overall weather event, bringing

01:13heavier and more widespread rain as well as stronger winds through southern and eastern

01:18New South Wales and ACT.

01:21There will be significant thunderstorm activity over the next few days, peaking on Thursday.

01:28But we'll start off with a look at Wednesday's thunderstorm forecast across eastern Australia

01:32because it's already getting quite extensive for this afternoon.

01:36Severe thunderstorms are possible on this map in the yellow area.

01:39And severe thunderstorms today could bring any of the following hazards, damaging wind gusts,

01:44heavy rainfall that leads to flooding or some large hailstones.

01:47And the area, as much of inland NSW and all of the ACT, just gets across into parts of

01:53Gippsland and eastern Victoria as well.

01:56Now we'll probably see an enhancement or an elevation of the severe thunderstorm risk for

02:00tomorrow for Thursday.

02:02Now the yellow area where severe thunderstorms are possible gets even more extensive all the

02:07way out to the north of the state and into southern Queensland, through much of central

02:11New South Wales, through the Illawarris, through the south coast, and about half or almost half

02:16of Victoria from the far eastern suburbs of Melbourne.

02:19And you can see we've also added a red area onto the map where severe thunderstorms are

02:23most likely to occur on Thursday.

02:27Supercell thunderstorms could bring areas of very heavy rain and flooding through this region,

02:31as well as damaging wind gusts and large hailstones.

02:34In particular, we're looking at southern parts of the South Coast Forecast District,

02:38the Southern Tablelands, Snowy Mountains, ACT, and northeastern ranges of Victoria as the

02:44most likely areas to see severe thunderstorms.

02:48Some of the key weather impacts that could occur where these storms do happen in the next

02:52few days include flash flooding, where the water can rise very quickly underneath very

02:56heavy rainfall.

02:58We expect stress on the power network and potential power outages.

03:02And the wind can bring damage to trees and crops across southeastern Australia as well.

03:08Now thunderstorms are just one part of this weather event.

03:10Outside of the thunderstorm risk, there is also going to be significant widespread rainfall

03:15across a number of areas in the southeast.

03:18So this map is showing rainfall for the next few days, all compiled onto the one map.

03:22We're now looking at total rain between Wednesday and the end of the day on Saturday.

03:26I'll zoom in a little bit, and I wanted to highlight a couple of areas in particular.

03:31Firstly, where is seeing the rain?

03:33Well, one district in particular is really sparking strongly on this rainfall accumulation map,

03:38and that is the south coast of New South Wales.

03:42Heavy, persistent falls in the coming days there.

03:45That includes regions like Batemans Bay, Bega, Marimbula, and down towards Eden as well.

03:50We could absolutely be seeing triple figures of rainfall there, and we probably will see

03:54one to two hundred millimetres, and if those thunderstorms get going, we could definitely

03:58see even more than that with heavier falls in the coming few days.

04:02So that is absolutely an area to pay attention to, probably seeing the most rain of anywhere

04:07in the country between now and the weekend.

04:10I also wanted to highlight some areas that are not getting much rain, and this is crucial

04:14because of significant bushfires that are still burning in Victoria.

04:19Especially in the northeast where the Walwa fire is burning, and through parts of central

04:23Victoria where the Longwood fire is burning.

04:25Both of those areas are on the northern side of the mountain ranges, and as we can see on

04:30this map, by far the more significant accumulations are on the southern side.

04:34So across these key fire grounds, we're really looking at around about five to ten millimetres

04:39of rain in the coming few days, which is not enough to put out any ongoing bushfires.

04:44And in fact, because this weather event is not only wet, but it's also going to be windy,

04:49we could potentially see some gusty, strong southeasterly winds pushing across those fire

04:54grounds and maybe making those fires flare up once again.

04:59Some other key impacts that we do expect to see with this rainfall, especially around the

05:02south of New South Wales, slips and landslides are possible with days of persistent rain on end.

05:09Most roads are absolutely possible, some long detours if you're travelling cross country,

05:13and of course those gusty winds could be blowing over those bushfire areas in Victoria.

05:18It is going to be very active through the end of this week, and staying that way through

05:22the course of the weekend.

05:23So definitely a good week to check your emergency supplies, stay up to date with your forecasts

05:27and warnings.

05:28And do follow any advice from your local emergency services and emergency management.

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