00:00What is the concentration? Is it growth that comes in less than expected? Is it the revisions
00:05for October and November? Or is an unemployment rate now just at 4.4 percent? I think what Mike
00:12McKee said was right in that, you know, the Fed talked about the unemployment rate. I have to tell
00:17you, I have a different take on it. I think there is a, we're talking about 50,000 jobs and then
00:22there was a revision down over 70,000 jobs. If you take, we're growing now, if you go the last
00:28six-month moving average, if you take out healthcare jobs, we're actually running negative
00:32jobs for the last six months away from healthcare, which is non-cyclical, not interest rate sensitive.
00:38Actually, if you go back eight months, the total net jobs is negative 213,000 jobs,
00:44net of healthcare. What I think is going on is we have a productivity revolution of extraordinary
00:50proportion, that we have an economy that's growing at a quite robust rate, but we just don't need the
00:55people. And I know when people say, well, you know, they were focused on, could this be 60,000
01:01jobs, 70,000 jobs, 80,000 jobs? If you go back to 2021, now that was post-COVID, we were running 600,000
01:09jobs. Now, big pullback from 20. But then in 22, 380,000 jobs a month. 2022, you were running 217,000
01:18jobs. 23, you were running, sorry, 24, you're running 170,000 jobs. We're talking about last year,
01:24you ran 50,000 jobs, net of healthcare, no jobs. This year, you're running at a number of what we
01:30just saw, 50,000, 39,000 was in healthcare. Point being, and part of why, you know, I think the
01:36interest rate tool doesn't really affect healthcare. It doesn't really affect education, which was
01:40another part of the job market. Meaning, I think we're just seeing a productivity revolution. I mean,
01:44you break down the numbers, you really look at it, it's pretty extraordinary. And I think the labor
01:48dynamic is quite significant on the backside of that.
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