00:00so amic and others have been a party to the investigation that's lasted the last 12 months
00:08throughout that process we've continued to make the case that australian imports or australian
00:15beef imports into china are not the cause of any damage to the domestic industry and that's the
00:19basis for the the investigation and the subsequent measures they've put in place nevertheless with
00:26the announcement overnight we're still caught up in these global measures that will impact and manage
00:31how china imports be from from all parts of the world the challenge for us is the amount of quota
00:37allocated to australia is significantly below what we've been trading into the market over the last
00:4312 months so going forward we are expecting it to really hinder what we will be exporting into china
00:51and going forward to the degree of about a third of what we're currently doing and so what kind of
00:55impact will that have on the australian industry um firstly i suppose as of today we'll continue to
01:02trade into china um but probably within the first six to eight months we'll utilize that allocation
01:09of quota um then there will be a tariff that will kick in after that that will effectively
01:14cease trade i don't think anyone can afford a 55 tax on top of off top on top of the price of beef
01:20um so when that happens we'll then redirect exports to alternative markets and now australia is quite
01:26fortunate to have good access into many markets um but when you redirect trade you're going to your
01:32your second or third best preference so we will see i suppose value eroded throughout that process
01:37um and to put into context china's currently our second largest market so it is a significant
01:42um export destination for our beef i know for most of this year we had hundreds of abattoirs in the u.s
01:49that were unable to export beef to china did that create a gap that australia could fill did we send
01:55more beef there last year i guess last year not this year in 2025 in new 20 yeah certainly that was the
02:02case uh australia is similar to the u.s where we can produce i suppose diversity of beef but particularly
02:08that more premium product uh for instance chilled grain feed beef uh and the u.s was heavily restricted
02:15um in recent times so australia did fill some of that gap uh but it also reflects the broader consumer
02:20demand for australian beef australia has probably got the best um long-lasting reputation and brand
02:27resonance with chinese consumers they love the product um they see it as a safe high quality choice when
02:35they're at the supermarket um so there's that fundamental demand coming from the consumer in
02:39china that's driven a lot of our uh exports over the last few years and so china says they are doing
02:45this to safeguard their own domestic supply but but it's your view that this won't actually that
02:51australian imports won't impact china's domestic supply so much well we've made the case to china's
02:58ministry of commerce that any injury that the domestic industry has um has received in the last
03:07few years hasn't necessarily come from australia there's other supplies into the market and the
03:11south americans account for about 80 percent of beef imports into china and they're the countries that
03:16we have seen a relatively large increase in exports into the market over the last few years
03:22australia has been there for over a decade now uh and has been a relatively stable um supplier into
03:29the market so there hasn't necessarily been a surge from from australia and also the beef that we do send
03:34there is relatively um premium price so there's not the ability for us to undercut their domestic
03:39producers necessarily do you think this step risks doing some damage to the long-term uh trading
03:47relationship that australia and china have yeah it certainly uh i suppose is at odds with the free
03:54trade agreement that was signed um years ago and that's really underpinned commercial relationships
04:00that australian beef exporters have established in the market uh we'll certainly continue to do
04:06business with china but once we hit our uh quota um say middle of the year at some point um the ability
04:13to trade in china will effectively will effectively stop so it'll put pause to those commercial
04:19relationships until the new um year starts in in 2027 so it will really i suppose hinder what we can
04:26do but it certainly won't stop uh australian exporters doing business while they can in the market it has
04:33been a good year for australian beef exports uh there's still good overseas demand elsewhere are you
04:38optimistic about 2026 well i think there's certainly plenty to be optimistic about in terms of overall
04:45consumer demand the world loves our beef products aussie consumers love our beef products as well
04:51but it's certainly a more volatile world although we've got through 2025 relatively unscathed we do rely
04:59on reliable rules-based trade when it comes to doing business and certainly the world's a lot more risky
05:05than it once was um in the past so um this i suppose additional measure that china's implemented
05:13overnight adds a bit of concern um and and also if it is implemented in combination with other
05:19disruptions on the global market it could have a far greater effect
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