00:00The fragile global legal framework for nuclear weapons control faces further setbacks in 2026,
00:09eroding guardrails to avoid a nuclear crisis. The first half of the year will see two key events.
00:16The US-Russia bilateral treaty expires on February 5, and in April New York hosts the
00:24Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the cornerstone
00:30of global nuclear security frameworks. The Review Conference, held every four to five years,
00:36is meant to keep the NPT alive. But during the last two sessions, the 191 signatory states
00:44failed to agree on a final document, and experts expect the same outcome in April.
00:50Alexandra Bell, head of US-based global security non-profit the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,
00:57at a UN-hosted online conference in early December said,
01:01I think this is going to be a difficult RevCon, she added. In terms of the current state and near
01:07future prospects of nuclear arms control architecture, things are bleak. Anton Klopkov,
01:14director of Russian think tank the Center for Energy and Security Studies,
01:18took an even starker point of view, saying at the same event that,
01:22we are at the point of almost complete dismantlement of arms control architecture.
01:27He said, we should be realistic in the current circumstances.
01:32At best, I think we should try to preserve what we have.
01:35From US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to Russia's test of the new Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise
01:48missile, and US President Donald Trump's remarks about possibly resuming nuclear tests,
01:55the international nuclear landscape darkened in 2025. At the same time, the arms control architecture is
02:02crumbling. Emmanuel Maître of France's Foundation for Strategic Research told AFP,
02:08a key challenge hinges on a shift in global relations. Nuclear control had been built over
02:14decades around a Moscow-Washington axis, but China's growing power and rapid technological advances
02:21have shifted the international playing field, which is simultaneously increasingly strained.
02:28Peking University's Hua Han said that the growing interlinkage between nuclear and conventional
02:33forces, and the emergence of disruptive technologies, such as the US Golden Dome defense system,
02:40and new hypersonic weapons, have transformed traditional nuclear deterrence into a multi-domain
02:46concept, especially in a multipolar world. She added,
02:51this trilateral configuration introduces complexities far beyond the Cold War-era bilateral model.
02:59Increasing China-Russia cooperation further complicates deterrence calculations, particularly
03:05in the two main theatres of concern, Europe and the Asia-Pacific. A likely result of the changing
03:11landscape is the lapse of New START, which sets weapon limits and includes inspection systems.
03:17Maître said, the entire inspection component is no longer functioning,
03:22the notifications when a missile is moved, etc. All of that has vanished.
03:27What remains is only the voluntary commitment to stay within the limits.
03:32But allowing New START to lapse is in American interest, according to Robert Peters of the
03:44Influential Heritage Foundation, reflecting the stance of much of the US strategic community
03:51to avoid tying Washington's hands to Moscow alone. Beijing, which currently has fewer weapons,
03:57has so far refused to engage in trilateral disarmament talks.
04:02Peters said at a recent online International Institute for Strategic Studies event,
04:07China is the fastest-growing nuclear power on the planet. It's building 100 new warheads a year,
04:14and now has more ICBM, intercontinental ballistic missile silos, than the US has active Minuteman 3 silos.
04:22He added, New START does nothing to address that issue. However, Maître said,
04:28a New START lapse doesn't mean the world should expect serious consequences as early as February 6,
04:34in both Washington and Moscow. There is a small margin to bring some weapons back into service,
04:40but the numbers cannot be very significant. There are bottlenecks that will slow any build-up,
04:47she said. Nor will the lack of a final document from the Revcon cause immediate or damaging consequences
04:53to the NPT, she said. But, she warned, fewer safeguards risks leaving the world without diplomatic
05:00tools to resolve tensions. She added that the less functional the NPT becomes, the harder it is to
05:06forge collective solutions in the event of a crisis.
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