Peytons Places - Season 5 Episode 04- Lies, Damned Lies, and Football Statistics
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00:00Peyton's Places, an ESPN original series, is presented by Elijah Craig, the father of bourbon.
00:15There was one thing I never understood about playing quarterback in the NFL.
00:21The passer efficiency rating.
00:23It's this math formula that determines who wins the passing championship each year based on four passing categories.
00:32I was a guest speaker in a University of Tennessee math class, and all these college students started asking me about it, and I had no answers.
00:40So, Kirk Cousins and I went to the Elias Sports Bureau, the official statistician of the NFL, and tried to get some answers.
00:50Kind of hit the road.
00:51And now, the ESPN original series, Peyton's Places, presented by Elijah Craig.
01:04Welcome.
01:06Today we are going to be looking at a problem that has baffled mathematicians for decades.
01:12So, everybody, turn to page one in your book.
01:16What is this?
01:18The problem you're seeing here on the board, we're looking at algebraic expressions.
01:22And to help us, we have a guest speaker who's an expert on all of these variables, the five-time most valuable player in the National Football League, Mr. Peyton Manning.
01:39Thank you very much, Professor.
01:40Looking forward to answering your questions.
01:42I'm glad to be here.
01:43And go Vols!
01:44Go Vols!
01:45Does anybody know what this equation is for?
01:48Cold fusion.
01:49No, I don't think Peyton Manning knows the solution to cold fusion.
01:53Do you, Peyton?
01:54Uh, I do not.
01:55Is it from mine's last theorem?
01:57The one nobody understands because he died before he could explain it?
02:00No.
02:00So, this is how the NFL grades its quarterbacks.
02:04In our book, it says the actual computation of the rating seems to be poorly understood by fans and sportcasters alike, but can be approximated with this formula.
02:14So, I'll let our guest mathematician explain it.
02:18The best way to explain the NFL's passer efficiency rating is...
02:24Here's the thing.
02:30You don't know what you don't know until you know that you don't know it.
02:34Uh, there's probably a reason that I majored in speech communication, so how about I just take your questions?
02:40Well, what are the five variables?
02:42Great question.
02:43That's easy.
02:44Uh, completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns, interceptions.
02:50Why those variables?
02:51What about scrambling?
02:52Scrambling.
02:53Isn't not taking a sack also a part of being a quarterback?
02:56Uh...
02:56Why does the scale go to 158.3?
02:59Isn't winning the only statistic that counts?
03:01Wow.
03:01Um...
03:02Why'd you come so unprepared?
03:04Isn't preparing kind of your thing?
03:06It is.
03:06It's supposed to be.
03:07Why is show NamUs rating so low and Jeff George is so high?
03:10I mean, Broadway Joe won Super Bowl III.
03:13Oh.
03:14That's when I decided to learn everything there is to know about the quarterback rating.
03:20Or die trying.
03:25I'm Peyton Manning, and I love football.
03:27Don't worry.
03:28Peyton, who's your favorite football player?
03:30Madea.
03:30I'm on a quest to bring NFL history to life.
03:34Yes!
03:35Wow, that was pretty reckless.
03:36So join me for another adventure.
03:38Hey!
03:39Dream comes true, man.
03:40Oh, awesome, man.
03:40This is right.
03:41This is right on Kenley.
03:42James plays.
03:43This is great.
03:49Take a look at these two ratings.
03:50Wow.
03:51158.3.
03:53I mean, that's as high a rating as you can have.
03:55How is 158.3 sound?
03:57I still don't understand how they put that rating together, but it does sound pretty good.
04:06Football is not rocket science, except when it comes to the passer efficiency rating.
04:12How about golf tonight?
04:1418 out of 18, 292 yards.
04:18Did you know how you didn't have a perfect quarterback rating?
04:21Did I not?
04:22I don't know.
04:22Yeah, that system's weird, but whatever.
04:27It's a complicated number derived from a complex equation.
04:31Now, there are a lot of things that go into this.
04:33We won't begin to attempt to explain them because they're understood only by any living Nobel Prize winner in physics.
04:39Nobody else knows what in the world this pass rating is.
04:43To figure out what it means and how we got it, I enlisted the help of a quarterback who has one of the highest ratings in history.
04:51Touchdown Vikings!
04:53Captain Kirk Cousins.
04:55You like that?
04:56You like that?
04:59This is silly, Peyton.
05:00One of the reasons we played football is because we didn't want to do math.
05:03I believe in us, Kirk.
05:04The truth is out there, and we're going to find it.
05:06Peyton, the only thing we're going to find today is half-priced tickets to the Lion King.
05:10Okay, you keep bringing up the Lion King.
05:12Do you actually want to go see it?
05:13I just think there's no way we're going to find how passer rating works.
05:15Haven't you always wondered why 158.3 is perfect?
05:19What's your career passer rating?
05:2196.5.
05:22Yours?
05:2397.4.
05:24Really?
05:25Actually, maybe numbers don't matter.
05:26Well, see, now I'm interested.
05:28Oh, you are?
05:28Yeah.
05:29What a day for Kirk Cousins.
05:30You see his afternoon with a perfect quarterback rating.
05:33You know what Mark Twain used to say about lies?
05:35Of course.
05:36There are three kinds.
05:37Lies.
05:38Damned lies.
05:39And statistics.
05:40Welcome to 1430 Broadway, home of the Elias Sports Bureau.
05:44The stats guys?
05:45This here is where they figure out our quarterback ratings.
05:49Beam me up, Scotty.
05:51Can I help you?
06:01Yeah, I'm Peyton.
06:02This is Kirk.
06:03We're quarterbacks.
06:04We want to know how our rating works.
06:06Do you have an appointment?
06:07I don't think so, but Kirk has a career rating of 97.4.
06:11And Peyton's is only 96.5.
06:13And we all know there must be some type of computational error.
06:16We don't make computational errors.
06:18Just a minute.
06:22Hey, Joe.
06:23We got a code Q out here.
06:25Confused quarterbacks.
06:26All right.
06:29Mr. Gilson will be right with you.
06:32The Elias Sports Bureau has been the NFL's official statistician since 1961, recording everything
06:39from yards and carries to batted balls and touchdowns.
06:46Wow.
06:4796.5 and 97.4 in the flesh.
06:50Come on.
06:50I'm more than just a number and a wallet full of Kohl's cash.
06:53How can I help you, gentlemen?
06:56We're on a quest to figure out the quarterback passer rating.
06:59Do you guys like math?
07:00No.
07:01Peyton, what'd you get me into?
07:02Not bad.
07:03I'm not sure.
07:04Well, if you want to understand the history of the passer rating, you got to start at the
07:07beginning.
07:08I think there's like six or seven teams, maybe even more.
07:10We don't know who their starting quarterback's going to be next year.
07:13But I look at two.
07:13You can't understand the present or predict the future unless you compare it to the past.
07:17That's why analytics are everywhere.
07:19Hey, Eli Manning has the best road record of any quarterback all time in the playoffs.
07:24Minimum six starts.
07:26When the NFL started, there were no statistics, just the score.
07:29And the league didn't start keeping statistics until 1932.
07:33Now, why 1932?
07:351932, NFL president Joe Carr looked at Major League Baseball and looked at Beirut 60 home
07:40runs or Ty Cobb's 366 career batting average and understood if the NFL wanted to be part of
07:45the big time, it had to start keeping statistics.
07:47Smart.
07:48Makes sense.
07:48But if you want to see the original records.
07:50Over here?
07:51They're right here.
07:55This is where we keep the NFL's original statistical archive.
07:58All 3,000 NFL games played before 1960.
08:02And it's all in that filing cabinet right over there.
08:04Wow.
08:05I feel like Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.
08:08Expecto Patronum.
08:09How is it that we're with the total math guy, yet you're the biggest nerd here?
08:13Explain that to me.
08:14Hey, let's take our knees and go back to the Shire, all right?
08:18My grandfather, Seymour Seawoff, understood that you had to painstakingly go through each
08:22game of the NFL history to create the database that represents the NFL.
08:26Look, slinging Sammy Baugh.
08:28That's cool.
08:29Now, I don't get it.
08:30How does this explain the passer rating?
08:33Alex.
08:34Well, if you want to understand the detail of the passer rating, Alex is your guy.
08:37Turns out the passer rating is so complicated, even the president had to tap out in favor
08:45of Elias' top football historian.
08:48There's a background to all these index cards, which had the statistics of all the NFL players
08:53from the 30s, the 40s, and the 50s.
08:56The great ones that people know, like Don Hudson and Otto Graham and Steve Van Buren, but sometimes
09:03cards of players that people don't remember.
09:06Like Bud Wilson Schwenk.
09:08Right.
09:09Bud Schwenk was a rookie quarterback in 1942 for the Chicago Cardinals.
09:14He wouldn't be known for much, but if you look at the last column here, Peyton, it's his
09:20interception column.
09:22He threw 27 interceptions.
09:24Is that whose record I broke?
09:26And that was a record at the time, a record who they're surely thinking could never be broken.
09:33But 56 years later.
09:36Gosh.
09:36That's the 28th pick of a Peyton Manning pass.
09:391998.
09:40That bad season.
09:42Can we go back and check every throw?
09:43I think he might have thrown a couple more that year that maybe we missed.
09:47No?
09:47No, I don't think so.
09:48No chance?
09:48I think that's been done.
09:50I can see it in the paper tomorrow.
09:52What's wrong with the Colts offense?
09:56Before 1973, the quarterback pass rating did not exist.
10:01There was no consensus on the best way to judge the best quarterback.
10:06So, when it all started, Alex, how did they determine the passing champion?
10:11There are different ways that they used to rank the passer title.
10:15In Sammy Boa's case in 1937, he wins the title based on the most passing yards.
10:22The Washington Redskins, world champions in 1937, and possessed of one of the finest combined
10:28passing and running attacks any football team ever had.
10:31Here's his index card from 1937.
10:34And since you started here with Washington, we'll give it to you, Kirk.
10:38So, that's his first year in the league.
10:41But what do you notice is not included in his rankings of categories?
10:47Touchdown passes.
10:47Touchdown passes.
10:48Exactly right.
10:49In 1937, touchdown passes didn't make the grade.
10:54They did show the three touchdown passes that Boa threw in the championship game over the Bears.
11:00Slingin' Sammy Boa voted the greatest living quarterback of all time by the Associated Press.
11:05Looks the game on ice.
11:07That may have been the impetus to say, hey, for now on, we better put touchdown passes in the record book.
11:13Yeah.
11:14I love it.
11:14In 2024, Lamar Jackson won the passing title with a quarterback rating of 121.6.
11:23As it stands, it would be the second highest passer rating in history.
11:27But not by the same criteria as Sammy Boa.
11:31If we were to use the same numbers in 1937 when Boa won it today, who would have been the passing champion this past year?
11:38For passing yards, it would have been Joe Burrow.
11:40Joe Burrow wins the passing title.
11:42And to his credit, Joe Burrow was the passing yardage leader.
11:46There's no shame in that.
11:47Perfect throw from Joe Burrow.
11:50Congrats, Joe.
11:51Way to go, buddy.
11:52I really bet I die.
11:55Sometimes.
11:57So, after ball, did the criteria for the passing title change?
12:01Right.
12:02It was pretty random.
12:03In 1938, when Ed Donowski, who was one of Eli's predecessors with the Giants, he won the passing title based on his completion percentage.
12:13Donowski, an instant before he is hit, he rifles the ball away with beautiful form.
12:18And here you can see that on his card.
12:20Sammy Ball, yards, Donowski, completion percentage.
12:24If we use the Ed Donowski rule of completion percentage, who would have been the passing champion this past year?
12:30It would have been Tua Tagovailoa.
12:32Wow.
12:33There you go, Tua.
12:34Tagovailoa, 23 and 26.
12:37Yeah!
12:39Let's go!
12:40All right, so we go yards with ball.
12:42Donowski wins it with percentage.
12:45Is there another change?
12:46In 1942, we have Cecil Isbell here winning the passing title in the inverse rating of all the categories.
12:53If you finish first in a category, you get a one.
12:56If you finish second, you get a two.
12:58If you finish third, you get a three.
13:00And whoever has the lowest number at the end, he's the leader.
13:03And this football card from more than 50 years ago, which shows the 1972 passing leaders being Norm Snead and Earl Morrow.
13:11Clearly there's no title for best haircut.
13:13Correct.
13:14If you flip it over to the other side, you can see all the categories listed.
13:19And it was in the inverse order.
13:21So as many different categories that you finished high in the rankings, that helped you become the passing leader.
13:27Earl Morrow led the AFC, a Michigan State great.
13:29Played for the Dolphins that year, completing 55% of his passes, 11 touchdowns, and that gave him 15 points towards the inverse rating.
13:40So 15 was the leader?
13:41Gerald LaMonica was second with 19 points.
13:44So the higher you were, the worse.
13:46Yeah, that's confusing.
13:48Right.
13:48Why don't we try calculating the inverse passer rating for the 2024 season?
13:53Go for it.
13:54If we're going to do it, though, let's do it the old-fashioned way.
13:57Let's do it.
14:27Did he ball led the NFL in passing and punting in 1946?
14:32Or that Sid Luckman averaged 8.4 yards per attempt for his career?
14:37Would anyone have known Johnny Unitas threw a touchdown pass in 47 consecutive games, if not for some cloistered statistician?
14:46Perica.
14:47Perica.
14:48Tu and one etour?
14:50Jacksonus eset wiset, prateriens campeonatum cum septae de simpunctis.
15:00Quedas septae de simpunctis definite quali bet?
15:03I have no idea.
15:0917 points doesn't sound so impressive, does it?
15:12Pete Rozelle wanted impressive quarterback statistics.
15:14So, in 1973, Seymour Seawolf and Don Smith, who was an executive with the Pro Football Hall of Fame, they got together.
15:24And they took completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, and interception percentage.
15:31Those four.
15:32Those four, they put it into a statistical blender, and out came the passer rating.
15:37Basically, this is how it worked.
15:39Completion is 25%.
15:41Yards and passing, that's 25%.
15:44Touchdowns is 25%.
15:46Interception is 25%.
15:48That's about as simple as you're ever going to hear it explained.
15:51What made them pick those four?
15:53Because they thought those were the four categories that most reflected the passing of the quarterback.
16:00And the beauty of those categories is they go all the way back to the days of Sammy Baugh.
16:05And we have their numbers.
16:07So, we're able to compare his statistics to Eli Manning's or yours or Peyton's.
16:14And the average passer rating in the NFL in 1973, right around the time your father started playing, was 64.9.
16:22Manning chased, throwing, for a touchdown.
16:27I've never taken a lot of notice of the program that's used to rate the passer, which was just put in, what, three or four years ago.
16:34You have a 64.9 right now?
16:36They're killing me.
16:37You're out of the league.
16:37They're killing me.
16:38The first winner, 1973 passer rating leader, was Roger Staubach with 94.6.
16:45Roger Staubach studied the defense with a jeweler's eye, then surgically dissected it.
16:52Part of what makes pro football so great is the history.
16:55That's right.
16:55And so, that's actually, I think, an unseen benefit to passer rating is the link that it gives us to Sammy Baugh.
17:01Having played for Washington myself, it's fun to know that we have a statistical way to create a link in the history of the game.
17:07That's right.
17:08Mark Jackson, a perfect quarterback rating of 158.3.
17:15You hear people say, why is there a maximum 158.3?
17:20They weren't worried at that point in time about anybody generating a 158.3 rating.
17:26The league average was 64.9.
17:28You didn't really get quarterbacks getting into that 100 range until you get to Dan Marino's iconic 1984 season.
17:37Those touchdown passes, 48, impressive numbers, record-setting numbers throughout this season.
17:43And then when Joe Montanis hitting his groove in his prime with the 49ers and getting those 100 ratings.
17:51He is the top-rated quarterback of the national football league, arguably having his best years.
17:56So, they didn't really worry about any maximum rating, and it doesn't happen very often in a game.
18:05Four touchdown passes, Brady, a perfect quarterback rating.
18:08The quarterback who had the most 158.3 rating games in NFL history is Peyton Manning.
18:15You have three in the regular season, and you had one in the playoffs against Denver in January of 2004.
18:2122 of 26, five touchdowns, a perfect quarterback rating.
18:26That's the only one ever in the postseason.
18:28Did you feel like you had to say that because of the Bud Schwenk interception story?
18:33I didn't feel I had to. I knew I had to.
18:36Now, we mentioned 158.3.
18:38How hard is it to get a 0.0 rating, kind of like Mr. Blutarski in Animal House?
18:45Mr. Blutarski, 0.0.
18:53Because Eli, I think, had one against the Ravens one year.
18:56That's hard to accomplish.
18:58Eli Manning, just 4 of 18 for 27 yards.
19:02This game can't get over fast enough for Eli to get out of here.
19:05I think 0.0, that needs to get more attention.
19:08Right.
19:08Yeah, let's get that out there a little bit more if we can.
19:11We were doing the Blutarski. We were trying for it.
19:15What do you see as the biggest negative for the NFL passer rating?
19:22It would seem like an 80-yard touchdown pass, perfect post route.
19:27Tight coverage.
19:28Makes a move to the 30, 25, 20, and they won't catch him today.
19:33Should count more than a three-yard pass for a touchdown.
19:38Use check, makes the catch.
19:40Football's the ultimate team game, so passer rating for me,
19:43when I look back on some of my best seasons.
19:45We've got to make something happen on this next drive.
19:48I think it's not just a reflection on the quarterback.
19:50It's also a reflection on the play caller, the offensive line,
19:53the receivers, the tight ends, the running backs.
19:55Many times I look back and I say, well, my yards per attempt was higher
19:58because the coach was calling plays that gave me a chance to launch it downfield.
20:03My receivers were talented enough to get open.
20:05So the Minnesota Vikings march down the field behind the throwing of Kirk Cousins.
20:10Keep going, Kirk!
20:11I didn't really change as a player, but my yards per attempt jumped
20:14because of the situations I was being put in to be able to throw the football.
20:18Precision point pass by Kirk Cousins.
20:21So, like so many other statistics, the quarterbacks get the attention,
20:26but it really is a reflection of the whole offense.
20:29Hey, that's how you finish, man.
20:30Yeah.
20:30Great job!
20:31And quarterbacks keep up with their rating, and they're lying if they say they don't.
20:36I remember in 2009, I had a rating over 100, and it was the last game of the season.
20:41We were going to play one series, Kirk, and the only reason I wanted to play the one series
20:45was because I wanted to get Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
20:48They got a certain amount of catches.
20:50They got financial incentives, so we threw a lot of screen passes,
20:53but I threw an in route to Jacob Tamme in the snow, and he slipped, and I threw an interception.
20:58And my rating went below 100.
21:05He said you're 99.8.
21:09Let me go, Tamme. Nice job.
21:11Ratings below 100.
21:1399.9.
21:16My rating went below 100.
21:18This is a pick.
21:20Alex answered every question except the toughest.
21:23For that, he left me on my own.
21:27I'm starting to get with the rating measures, but how do you get the actual number?
21:31It's actually not that hard, Kirk.
21:32I don't know what you learned at Michigan State.
21:34I've just learned this in a Tennessee math class.
21:39Here we go, okay?
21:40I wrote it all out for you.
21:41The formula is a basic quadratic equation.
21:44Now, let's do you.
21:46We're going to divide your 3,768 completions by your 5,630 attempts.
21:55Now, we're going to subtract 0.3, and then we're going to divide by 0.2.
22:02That's the formula?
22:03That's just your number for completion percentage.
22:06Next, we're going to do yards per attempt, okay?
22:10Career passing yards divided by attempts.
22:13Subtract 3.
22:15Divide by 4, all right?
22:17Touchdown percentage.
22:18Divide your 288 career TVs by attempts, and then we're going to divide by 0.5.
22:27Kirk, don't forget your interception percentage.
22:31Divide your career interceptions by attempts.
22:33Subtract that number from 0.095 and divide by 0.04.
22:39Are you with me, Kirk?
22:40Are you with you?
22:42Then we're going to take all the sum of that, multiply by 100, divide by 6, and then...
22:49Presto.
22:51Your career passer rating.
22:56I have no idea what you just said, but I'm thrilled that my rating's higher than yours.
23:01Yeah, okay.
23:02That's the fourth time you've said that.
23:03You've made that clear.
23:07So I guess it all makes sense, even if it doesn't.
23:11At the end of the day, isn't the NFL passer rating a solution in search of a problem?
23:17Peyton Manning has the all-time QB rating number, about 121 point something, and if the season ends today, Aaron Rodgers would break that record.
23:28It seems impossible to quantify what makes a great quarterback.
23:33And here comes Dave Craig, malign much of his career, but the stats show, and the rating system, he's number four in the history of the NFL as a passer.
23:42Look at DeMarvin Jackson has a better TV rating than you.
23:45To me, the debate itself is what makes football so much fun.
23:52Kurt, it's been a lot of fun. Appreciate you doing it.
23:54What do you say we get a selfie with the last homework either of us will ever do?
23:58I guess in the end, Mark Twain was right.
24:00Absolutely. Lies.
24:02Damned lies.
24:03And football statistics.
24:06You see, Kurt, math can be fun.
24:08No.
24:09How would you go about calculating the circumference of your forehead?
24:16It's actually funny.
24:19Ryan Fitzpatrick couldn't even explain passer rating to me, and he went to Harvard.
24:22Harvard? You mean the Tennessee of the Northeast?
24:25Nobody calls it that.
24:26Find out from Frank what I mean, huh?
24:28Find out from Frank what I mean to get it back up.
24:32How many completions?
24:33Why does the moon appear larger when it's near the horizon?
24:36Is it kind of like your head?
24:37Second forehead check.
24:41Are we shaking hands or just kind of...
24:43We don't know this guy yet. We don't trust him.
24:46This guy likes math. We don't like him.
24:48Kurt, can you physically write with that?
24:50Oh, you want me to get quilled, huh?
24:52Can you write in Old English?
24:55Are all completions the same, even when the guy can't throw a spiral and he looks like he's passing a kidney stone?
25:01Wow, now we're going to the next level.
25:07Looks like good.
25:16It is.
25:19Don't go off.
25:21The occasion of life.
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