00:00hello and good evening i'm melissa idris welcome to consider this this is the show where we want
00:15you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day severe floods across asia
00:21and southeast asia this month have displaced thousands and exposed the region's growing
00:27climate vulnerabilities as floods become more frequent and more severe our countries including
00:33malaysia prepared for the consequences well joining me on the show tonight to discuss this further is
00:40steffi uleman elmer who is director of global flood solutions at moody's steffi thank you so much for
00:46joining me today i came across moody's new analysis which maps um how global flood risk has evolved um
00:55over time and where it's headed in the future i thought was quite fascinating and thank you so
01:00much for joining us so maybe you can give us a bit of um some insight into this report what would you
01:06say steffi is the single most important message um that the world should really take note of from this
01:13report yeah thank you for having me and um glad to see that this report is actually um getting read
01:20and um spread across the world so um at moody's we are kind of like experts in flood risk management
01:25and flood risk modeling um because that is kind of like our bread and butter and we have taken to
01:29analyze um what does that mean for the entire globe but then also breaking it down into individual
01:34regions and if if there's one main takeaway and that may not come quite as a surprise is um flood risk
01:42is not a local or regional issue it is really a global issue it is a growing global challenge um we have
01:49become aware of so many flood events um globally um over the past couple of years but also in the
01:54in the past in the history so there is precedence um but then there's overlay with exposure with rapid
02:00growth um in terms of population in flood risk in risky areas let's put it that way and that is what
02:06a report basically exposes um it just does that analysis over time and then understands okay how have
02:12flood exposures changed um as we see them could you maybe give us um a little bit of insight because
02:19one of the things that i found most shocking was that over a period of time the risk of flooding um
02:27to populations here have grown about almost 100 95 if i'm not mistaken is that accurate would you could
02:34you give us more insight depends a bit on which period you're looking at i mean maybe just to set
02:40the baseline for today um so what we are seeing from the report um so what we are seeing from the report
02:44and if you consider a um risk scenario of like a hundred year flood so that is kind of like a fairly
02:50severe um scenario if you if you want to take it nearly one in three people globally is exposed to
02:57flooding um so that is um just a percentage um assessment and if you then break it um further down
03:05uh so 25 at this hundred year um return period 25 of the global population um is exposed to inland flood
03:13and um that is already for when they are being protected by flood defenses and 36 um for for coastal
03:21floods respectively so that there's a lot of successes in terms of like um defenses so it's not a like
03:26totally gloomy and doomy um type of picture but generally in terms of um growth over time yes um you see
03:34population growth and um flood risk growth takes place at the same um amount and unfortunately though
03:41still we see even more um exposure growth um on the flood risk side relative to what we see from just
03:48population so that is probably the number that you're referring to right so um let's zoom in on this
03:54region so let's look at south asia southeast asia where does it sit in the global risk picture if you
04:02could maybe um specify some of the countries within these regions that moody's identifies as uh most at
04:09risk today yeah so so that is a bit um the the main outcome of the study as well probably also not
04:17surprising but generally what we saw from the study which is global south and southeast asia are
04:22disproportionately affected um by flooding relative to the rest of the world so that in terms of numbers
04:29what does that mean um nearly 40 of asia's population is susceptible to inland flooding um
04:35again at this 100 year return period five percent to risk of coastal flooding and both those figures
04:42are well above the global average so if you take the global average we would talk about 29 of the world's
04:48population at risk for inland and three percent for coastal so that gives kind of like for the entire
04:53region the relativity if you then break it through the down into okay which of the um asian or southeast
05:00asian countries are most at risk if you just take it by population you end up with the most popular
05:05states in any case um so india china pakistan bangladesh indonesia but even if you do the percentage again
05:13um so really relative risk of that population to flood risk you still see bangladesh there you still see
05:20pakistan and cambodia and that is for the inland portion if you go and swap over to the more
05:25coastal risk um so anything from storm surge etc um you do see pretty much the same picture um bangladesh
05:34china india um are from an absolute perspective obviously most exposed and if you then flip it again
05:40into the relative risk then you see all of the oceanic island states um which is not a surprise
05:46right but um the study just confirms that right um and what about malaysia stephi in malaysia's case
05:53how would um moody's characterize our exposure both to inland and coastal flooding yeah so malaysia is
06:00pretty much in the same mix as the entire southeast asia region um again above the average exposure
06:07compared to global averages um in terms of population at risk um you are sort of like at a 46 percent of the
06:15population does have some risk of flooding um both on the inland side and on the on the coastal side
06:22so that is quite severe um i think what what the good point about malaysia is there's a fairly it's
06:28it's a high level to start with so so let's not um be fooled by that but there's a fairly stable um
06:35growth here over time it's it's not as if there's kind of like an acceleration um that we're seeing right
06:41now um there's still growth and there's still a lot to do but um it's it's not um kind of like
06:46accelerating as much as in other states and and based on that what do we see as the implications
06:53so we have this this picture of global risk but when we think about the economic losses that come
07:00from that what is it that moody's is anticipating if current trends continue let's take a look at maybe
07:07the southeast asia region and for malaysia specifically
07:13um so pretty much as i said for for malaysia and also for the southeast asia region yes we
07:20still see growing trends but they are multifaceted so there's many many reasons to those trends
07:26population growth is the one thing where does population grow is the other thing so still more
07:32growth in um exposed areas that are at risk of flooding as opposed to other areas um general
07:39trends of urbanization um are underpinning that um and then there's also come i mean some some mixed
07:46signals um depending on how you look at that from uh urban areas to rural areas so there's been a lot
07:52of investment for example in um for example the smart tunnel in kuala lumpur so that takes away some
07:58some of some of that risk right but then you see other regions where there is less of an investment
08:03in risk mitigation and then there there's an acceleration obviously so from an economic
08:07perspective um yes losses are likely to continue to rise um also on an annual average level what is um
08:17interesting and and very important to consider for the region it is a economic region right southeast
08:23asia asia and five um that is what you need also need to consider and and what i find very interesting
08:29because outside of that global study you also look at the correlated risk within that region we have
08:34a correlated model for it and and what you see in terms of like the tail scenarios that is where
08:39multiple countries get affected same as what what we just recently saw right in the december flooding
08:45it is thailand it is indonesia it is malaysia all at the same time because they basically have
08:50have the same climatology and then if you have a tropical cyclone that will not restrict itself
08:55to just one particular country it will cross the divides and that is where from an economic
09:01perspective you quite quickly get into all of those questions that we saw in thailand 2011 right supply
09:07chain the global um supply chain uh disruptions right and that is economically quite damaging and not
09:14just for one country but for the entirety of the region yeah it's all interconnected so if there was
09:20something that governments can do you mentioned a bit earlier um that you you touched on existing
09:27kind of flood defenses and how well defended some populations are in terms of level of exposure so if
09:33there were if there was maybe an urgent policy for governments in this region to make now um to avoid losses in the
09:43future to avoid any impact economic and and social what would it be what would moody's recommend
09:49governments prioritize um shifting from um post disaster cleanup to a pre-disaster action i think
09:59that is the main call to make and i know there has been a lot of investment i i really truly want to call
10:04out how malaysia has also um yeah championed some of those initiatives but there's a lot to do um and
10:12and that is certainly you know how how you translate it into policy there there's a lot of options um to
10:19to navigate um what we see globally what is successful is public private partnerships um also you know
10:26there's there's one element which is how do you protect your population and then there's the other
10:32element and i think that is even more important to consider because it has this back effect to
10:36population protection how do you protect the financial well-being of your people how do you
10:42increase that insurance take-up rate that does that financial protection and that is preemptive action
10:48right this is not kind of like waiting for this disaster to happen and spend a lot of money um for
10:53those people who would otherwise be totally um yeah at risk it's humanitarian crisis at that point right
11:00so there's a lot which can be done and i think there's a lot of good examples in the world um
11:04that may actually inform that policy shift any examples that come to mind now um i mean if if you
11:12look at across the world right i mean there are certain schemes where you have reinsurance um
11:16backbones installed in the country that because that that in the end then leave alleviates a bit
11:22the pain of like the premium which is the most important hurdle for low-income um classes
11:30to purchase um insurance right how do you make that accessible and um available and affordable
11:36so there's there's a whole chain from the from the primary policy um holder to all the way how it then
11:42transacts into reinsurance and that is the yeah the backup essentially the financial backup if you get
11:47this sorted um then many of the things probably will actually follow steffi thank you so much for
11:53joining me on the show steffi ulam and elmer there from moody's we're going to take a quick
11:58break here on consider this we'll be back with more stay tuned
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