Consider This: Flood Risk & Displacement (Part 1) — Asia at a Tipping Point - Video Dailymotion

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Severe floods across much of South Asia and Southeast Asia this month have displaced thousands and exposed the region’s growing climate vulnerabilities. As floods become more frequent and more severe, are countries, including Malaysia, prepared for the consequences? On this episode of #ConsiderThis Melisa Idris speaks with Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Director of Global Flood Solutions at Moody’s.

Transcript

00:00hello and good evening i'm melissa idris welcome to consider this this is the show where we want

00:15you to consider and then reconsider what you know of the news of the day severe floods across asia

00:21and southeast asia this month have displaced thousands and exposed the region's growing

00:27climate vulnerabilities as floods become more frequent and more severe our countries including

00:33malaysia prepared for the consequences well joining me on the show tonight to discuss this further is

00:40steffi uleman elmer who is director of global flood solutions at moody's steffi thank you so much for

00:46joining me today i came across moody's new analysis which maps um how global flood risk has evolved um

00:55over time and where it's headed in the future i thought was quite fascinating and thank you so

01:00much for joining us so maybe you can give us a bit of um some insight into this report what would you

01:06say steffi is the single most important message um that the world should really take note of from this

01:13report yeah thank you for having me and um glad to see that this report is actually um getting read

01:20and um spread across the world so um at moody's we are kind of like experts in flood risk management

01:25and flood risk modeling um because that is kind of like our bread and butter and we have taken to

01:29analyze um what does that mean for the entire globe but then also breaking it down into individual

01:34regions and if if there's one main takeaway and that may not come quite as a surprise is um flood risk

01:42is not a local or regional issue it is really a global issue it is a growing global challenge um we have

01:49become aware of so many flood events um globally um over the past couple of years but also in the

01:54in the past in the history so there is precedence um but then there's overlay with exposure with rapid

02:00growth um in terms of population in flood risk in risky areas let's put it that way and that is what

02:06a report basically exposes um it just does that analysis over time and then understands okay how have

02:12flood exposures changed um as we see them could you maybe give us um a little bit of insight because

02:19one of the things that i found most shocking was that over a period of time the risk of flooding um

02:27to populations here have grown about almost 100 95 if i'm not mistaken is that accurate would you could

02:34you give us more insight depends a bit on which period you're looking at i mean maybe just to set

02:40the baseline for today um so what we are seeing from the report um so what we are seeing from the report

02:44and if you consider a um risk scenario of like a hundred year flood so that is kind of like a fairly

02:50severe um scenario if you if you want to take it nearly one in three people globally is exposed to

02:57flooding um so that is um just a percentage um assessment and if you then break it um further down

03:05uh so 25 at this hundred year um return period 25 of the global population um is exposed to inland flood

03:13and um that is already for when they are being protected by flood defenses and 36 um for for coastal

03:21floods respectively so that there's a lot of successes in terms of like um defenses so it's not a like

03:26totally gloomy and doomy um type of picture but generally in terms of um growth over time yes um you see

03:34population growth and um flood risk growth takes place at the same um amount and unfortunately though

03:41still we see even more um exposure growth um on the flood risk side relative to what we see from just

03:48population so that is probably the number that you're referring to right so um let's zoom in on this

03:54region so let's look at south asia southeast asia where does it sit in the global risk picture if you

04:02could maybe um specify some of the countries within these regions that moody's identifies as uh most at

04:09risk today yeah so so that is a bit um the the main outcome of the study as well probably also not

04:17surprising but generally what we saw from the study which is global south and southeast asia are

04:22disproportionately affected um by flooding relative to the rest of the world so that in terms of numbers

04:29what does that mean um nearly 40 of asia's population is susceptible to inland flooding um

04:35again at this 100 year return period five percent to risk of coastal flooding and both those figures

04:42are well above the global average so if you take the global average we would talk about 29 of the world's

04:48population at risk for inland and three percent for coastal so that gives kind of like for the entire

04:53region the relativity if you then break it through the down into okay which of the um asian or southeast

05:00asian countries are most at risk if you just take it by population you end up with the most popular

05:05states in any case um so india china pakistan bangladesh indonesia but even if you do the percentage again

05:13um so really relative risk of that population to flood risk you still see bangladesh there you still see

05:20pakistan and cambodia and that is for the inland portion if you go and swap over to the more

05:25coastal risk um so anything from storm surge etc um you do see pretty much the same picture um bangladesh

05:34china india um are from an absolute perspective obviously most exposed and if you then flip it again

05:40into the relative risk then you see all of the oceanic island states um which is not a surprise

05:46right but um the study just confirms that right um and what about malaysia stephi in malaysia's case

05:53how would um moody's characterize our exposure both to inland and coastal flooding yeah so malaysia is

06:00pretty much in the same mix as the entire southeast asia region um again above the average exposure

06:07compared to global averages um in terms of population at risk um you are sort of like at a 46 percent of the

06:15population does have some risk of flooding um both on the inland side and on the on the coastal side

06:22so that is quite severe um i think what what the good point about malaysia is there's a fairly it's

06:28it's a high level to start with so so let's not um be fooled by that but there's a fairly stable um

06:35growth here over time it's it's not as if there's kind of like an acceleration um that we're seeing right

06:41now um there's still growth and there's still a lot to do but um it's it's not um kind of like

06:46accelerating as much as in other states and and based on that what do we see as the implications

06:53so we have this this picture of global risk but when we think about the economic losses that come

07:00from that what is it that moody's is anticipating if current trends continue let's take a look at maybe

07:07the southeast asia region and for malaysia specifically

07:13um so pretty much as i said for for malaysia and also for the southeast asia region yes we

07:20still see growing trends but they are multifaceted so there's many many reasons to those trends

07:26population growth is the one thing where does population grow is the other thing so still more

07:32growth in um exposed areas that are at risk of flooding as opposed to other areas um general

07:39trends of urbanization um are underpinning that um and then there's also come i mean some some mixed

07:46signals um depending on how you look at that from uh urban areas to rural areas so there's been a lot

07:52of investment for example in um for example the smart tunnel in kuala lumpur so that takes away some

07:58some of some of that risk right but then you see other regions where there is less of an investment

08:03in risk mitigation and then there there's an acceleration obviously so from an economic

08:07perspective um yes losses are likely to continue to rise um also on an annual average level what is um

08:17interesting and and very important to consider for the region it is a economic region right southeast

08:23asia asia and five um that is what you need also need to consider and and what i find very interesting

08:29because outside of that global study you also look at the correlated risk within that region we have

08:34a correlated model for it and and what you see in terms of like the tail scenarios that is where

08:39multiple countries get affected same as what what we just recently saw right in the december flooding

08:45it is thailand it is indonesia it is malaysia all at the same time because they basically have

08:50have the same climatology and then if you have a tropical cyclone that will not restrict itself

08:55to just one particular country it will cross the divides and that is where from an economic

09:01perspective you quite quickly get into all of those questions that we saw in thailand 2011 right supply

09:07chain the global um supply chain uh disruptions right and that is economically quite damaging and not

09:14just for one country but for the entirety of the region yeah it's all interconnected so if there was

09:20something that governments can do you mentioned a bit earlier um that you you touched on existing

09:27kind of flood defenses and how well defended some populations are in terms of level of exposure so if

09:33there were if there was maybe an urgent policy for governments in this region to make now um to avoid losses in the

09:43future to avoid any impact economic and and social what would it be what would moody's recommend

09:49governments prioritize um shifting from um post disaster cleanup to a pre-disaster action i think

09:59that is the main call to make and i know there has been a lot of investment i i really truly want to call

10:04out how malaysia has also um yeah championed some of those initiatives but there's a lot to do um and

10:12and that is certainly you know how how you translate it into policy there there's a lot of options um to

10:19to navigate um what we see globally what is successful is public private partnerships um also you know

10:26there's there's one element which is how do you protect your population and then there's the other

10:32element and i think that is even more important to consider because it has this back effect to

10:36population protection how do you protect the financial well-being of your people how do you

10:42increase that insurance take-up rate that does that financial protection and that is preemptive action

10:48right this is not kind of like waiting for this disaster to happen and spend a lot of money um for

10:53those people who would otherwise be totally um yeah at risk it's humanitarian crisis at that point right

11:00so there's a lot which can be done and i think there's a lot of good examples in the world um

11:04that may actually inform that policy shift any examples that come to mind now um i mean if if you

11:12look at across the world right i mean there are certain schemes where you have reinsurance um

11:16backbones installed in the country that because that that in the end then leave alleviates a bit

11:22the pain of like the premium which is the most important hurdle for low-income um classes

11:30to purchase um insurance right how do you make that accessible and um available and affordable

11:36so there's there's a whole chain from the from the primary policy um holder to all the way how it then

11:42transacts into reinsurance and that is the yeah the backup essentially the financial backup if you get

11:47this sorted um then many of the things probably will actually follow steffi thank you so much for

11:53joining me on the show steffi ulam and elmer there from moody's we're going to take a quick

11:58break here on consider this we'll be back with more stay tuned

Consider This: Flood Risk & Displacement (Part 1) — Asia at a Tipping Point

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