00:02As I said right before the break, face value, this doesn't look like the biggest game of the week.
00:07It doesn't have massive playoff implications for both teams.
00:10It does have playoff implications for the Panthers.
00:13This has been a Carolina team that has been completely up and down, at least in my opinion, this season.
00:19They looked terrible a couple weeks ago against the 49ers.
00:22They lose that game.
00:24They pick up some wins.
00:25But most importantly, the Buccaneers lost on Thursday night to the Falcons with Kirk Cousins at the helm.
00:32The Bucs were five-and-a-half-point home favorites.
00:35They get Mike Evans back, and they still come out with the loss on the last-second field goal by the Falcons.
00:41And just an unbelievable game by Kyle Pitts with his three touchdowns, Joe.
00:45When we're looking at this game overall, and really the way I would phrase the NFC South right now is it's still completely up in the air.
00:52The Panthers are now just sitting at plus-105.
00:56These two teams have to play twice in the remaining three weeks.
01:00But the way I would phrase it is, is that Tampa Bay is losing the division.
01:04It's not as if the Panthers are winning the division.
01:07The Panthers are backing themselves into the division title.
01:10What are your thoughts on the NFC South as of now?
01:13Well, I still buy in now.
01:16We saw Mike Evans come in, and he had over 100 yards.
01:19He is an added addition and opens up everything for a Bucca and everything for Tampa Bay.
01:24So I still, from the divisional aspect, still lean to Tampa Bay at minus-135.
01:30I'd still put my money on Baker and that veteran group than I would anybody else right now.
01:36But you bring up Carolina, they get the win over L.A., their last matchup, 31-28, right?
01:42That was, they were catching 10-and-a-half.
01:44They were a 10-and-a-half-point underdog in that game.
01:47They win it.
01:48But you have to bet them every other week, right?
01:50But New Orleans is playing much better with Tyler Shuck.
01:53He's more consistent in the passing attack.
01:56They've gotten running back Devin Neal going,
01:58and that offensive line seems to have a little bit of continuity.
02:01Receivers, I still think, are weak outside of Chris Alave.
02:05But that being said, they're more consistent in putting up points.
02:09This is a game, if you're Dave Canales and you're this team overall, you have to step up.
02:15You have to take care of business against a dead football team in New Orleans.
02:20It's a divisional matchup.
02:21I can only look Carolina here, but the 40-and-a-half to me, guys, is very appealing in this matchup over.
02:28So when I'm looking at this game, to your point about having to beat a dead team in the Saints,
02:35to me, this screams Rico Dowdle game.
02:37His prop is sitting at 56-and-a-half.
02:40To me, this sounds like you get in, you get out, and you come away with a win.
02:43Regardless of how it happens, Bryce Young doesn't need to throw for 300 yards.
02:47You just come away with a win, George.
02:48Do you like the Panthers overall?
02:50I wouldn't lay the points with the Panthers, frankly.
02:52I would just take them on the money line.
02:53I'm not going to be worried about laying points with a team I really just don't trust.
02:56But I would look to Rico Dowdle at over 56-and-a-half.
02:59Pound the ball, come away with the win is the most important thing if you're the Panthers.
03:02It doesn't have to be flashy.
03:05Certainly agree about the win.
03:06That's all they want to go in there and do, right?
03:08New Orleans is not – listen, I know, as Gabe and I have talked about this during the week,
03:11we thought New Orleans was going to be terrible this year.
03:13They're not good, but they're not terrible.
03:15You know, they can play good for Tyler Shah, who's maybe better than we expected in year one, right?
03:20Good for Kellen Moore for getting the most out of that team.
03:22Not a lot of talent there.
03:23I mean, outside of Chris Olave, Jawan Johnson, who else do you want there?
03:28Kamara's not Kamara anymore.
03:29He's not the same guy.
03:30He's not playing – probably not playing today anyway.
03:32So I think Carolina does win.
03:34So, Tom, I have no problem laying the 150, 158, whatever it might be here.
03:38They have to win here, all right, because now they play Tampa two of the next three games.
03:43That middle game is Seattle, all right?
03:47That's a problem.
03:48Seattle's going to have to play that game.
03:49It's not like Seattle's going to have everything locked up here where they have nothing to play for.
03:52No, they're going to need to play here.
03:53So if they slip up today, I mean, it may almost all be over here.
03:57They have to win this game.
03:58You can't be looking ahead here.
03:59You can't be looking at Tampa Bay next week.
04:00Got to take care of business.
04:01They are a different team on the road than they are at home, which is why I have some hesitation, which is why this is not one of my biggest bets today.
04:07Because I do like – I'm pretty much a minus 160, minus 165 guy and under.
04:12Anything over that I don't bet, but minus 158 fits my narrative there.
04:15So normally this will be a bigger bet for me, but it keeps going on in the back of my head.
04:19New Orleans, spoiler.
04:20They don't play well on the road here.
04:22It's going to be a closer game than you think, and they may feel a little bit too much of themselves because Tampa Bay choked the other night.
04:27And I believe all of that, by the way.
04:28But still, I'm on Carolina to win today.
04:30Hubbard, I mean, Dowdle I might be a little bit careful about.
04:34Hubbard all of a sudden has got that role again.
04:36You know, I'm not full, but it's more Hubbard now than Dowdle of late.
04:39And listen, if I'm Canales, the hot guy plays.
04:42It's that simple.
04:43I need to play the game.
04:44I can't play games here, all right?
04:45If Hubbard's playing well, he's running the ball.
04:47Dowdle's playing well, he's running the ball.
04:49That's the way I approach it.
04:50So I think it's a little dangerous for me to pick one or the other, and I actually lean towards Hubbard.
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