Fed Rate Cut Decision | FOMC Meeting Update - video Dailymotion

Benzinga

Markets are almost certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates today — but investors are increasingly focused on what happens after the decision.  Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are assigning near-100% odds to a 25-basis-point cut, while CME FedWatch sits close behind. Mortgage rates have already been trending lower ahead of the meeting, suggesting much of the move is priced in.  In this video, we break down what economists, banks, and analysts expect next — including why mortgage rates may not fall quickly, why Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s guidance on 2026 is critical, and why one major European bank is warning markets are too confident.  Watch the Federal Reserve decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference live on Benzinga’s YouTube channel today.

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00:00The Fed decision today might feel obvious, but what happens after the rate cut is what actually

00:05matters. You see, right now markets are almost certain the Fed delivers a quarter point cut

00:10today. Prediction markets like Polymarket and CalShit put the odds near 100% with hundreds

00:15of millions of dollars bet on it. Even the CME FedWatch has the probability close to 90%.

00:21But here's the bigger story. The cut is already priced in. Mortgage rates have been falling

00:26before the meeting, not after it. The average 30-year mortgage rate is already near 6.2%

00:31down from 6.7% last year, according to Freddie Mac. Economists say any further drop depends

00:37less on the cut itself and more on what Jerome Powell says about 2026. And there's one major

00:43wild card. While nearly every major bank expects a cut, Italy's Unicredit is the lone outlier

00:50calling for the Fed to hold rates steady. If that happens, it could spark major volatility.

00:55A hold could strengthen the dollar, pressure stocks, and force markets to reprice fast because

01:00optimism is already baked in. Even if the Fed cuts today, forecasters expect a slow glide

01:06lower, not a return to cheap money. Fannie Mae sees mortgage rates still around 6% by the end

01:12of 2026. Bank of America says rates closer to 5% are needed to truly unfreeze housing. So today

01:19isn't the finish line, it's the starting point for how markets adjust into 2026. And you can

01:25watch the Fed decision and Powell's press conference live today on Benzinga's YouTube channel. We'll see you there.

Fed Rate Cut Decision | FOMC Meeting Update

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