00:00So I think 25 basis points, which is price into the market, is coming in December and another 25 basis points in January.
00:06And then you see the Fed on hold. And you could even be talking about rate hikes from the Fed by early 2027.
00:14So I think the near term, we see a disconnect between the economic data and the weak employment data.
00:20So I think 25 basis points through December is something that's been signaled pretty well and is well within expectations.
00:27But it's not a huge cycle.
00:28So there's another cut in January, but then hold for the rest of January, 2026.
00:35That's that's that's really interesting. That's a slightly more hawkish take than some others are suggesting.
00:40So a cut in December, a cut in January, and then you get it and then you get a hold.
00:43Is there is there an equity market risk around around that view or the equity market can can can live with that,
00:49given the fiscal stimulus that's going to be coming through from the U.S., from from the tax bill and other support measures?
00:54Or is it or is a or is a or is a Fed that's on hold post January something of a risk to the equity markets?
01:01No, look, I think the businesses have gotten used to working with four percent interest rates.
01:06And we're still looking at earnings growth for 2026 and even looking into 2027, which is going to be double digits, your earnings growth.
01:14But I think the real issue is inflation. This is going to be the fifth year that you're missing the inflation target by a wide margin.
01:22So inflation remains very sticky here. The employment data has been weak.
01:27But if you look at the growth data, the growth data has been very strong.
01:30A lot of that support has really been the wealth effect that we've seen from such strong equity markets.
01:35Is next year the year when the valuation story around A.I. really gets tested, do you think, Joyce?
01:42I don't think so. I still think that we're pretty early cycle in this.
01:45And if anything, we see a broadening of the A.I. story.
01:49It's not just on the tech sector, but it's how A.I. is affecting logistics and health care and other sectors.
01:55So I see a broadening. But you also just see still a shortage on the data compute.
02:00So when we look at what's in the pipeline for the next two years, if you look at just the business investment piece of it, I mean, that story is very compelling.
02:09We're looking at, you know, five hundred billion dollars from some hyperscalers that is already in the pipeline that we can look at.
02:16And if you look at growth this past year, about a third of global growth in the first half of the year came from the A.I. business investment.
02:23So I think that story is still very much intact going into 2026 and even into 2027.
02:29So I think that story is still very important.
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