Ukraine’s naval drone campaign in the Black Sea has reached a dangerous new phase—one that is no longer just a Ukraine–Russia confrontation, but a widening regional and diplomatic crisis involving Turkey, Kazakhstan, NATO, and the global energy market.
Over the past week, Ukrainian naval drones have struck three Russian “shadow fleet” tankers inside Turkey’s Exclusive Economic Zone, marking an unprecedented expansion of the conflict. Turkey has condemned the attacks as a “worrying escalation” that threatens navigational safety and stability in the Black Sea.
At the same time, Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russia’s critical energy infrastructure, including a major attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk—one of the world’s most important oil export facilities. The strike forced a full shutdown, disrupting 1% of global oil supply and threatening 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Kazakhstan responded with a strong diplomatic protest, calling the CPC strike “unacceptable” and accusing Ukraine of targeting civilian infrastructure protected under international law. The fallout risks fracturing Kazakhstan–Ukraine relations and complicating Kyiv’s ties with one of the few neutral post-Soviet states.
Meanwhile, Russia accuses Ukraine of “terrorism,” while global observers warn that Ukrainian attacks hitting neutral countries’ interests could weaken international support for its war strategy.
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