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APT Opinion: North Korea’s missile program is no longer a regional threat—it is a full-spectrum nuclear force. Tonight, we break down how systems like the Hwasong-20, Hwasong-18, Hwasong-17, and the hypersonic Hwasong-16B have transformed Pyongyang into one of the most heavily armed nuclear states on Earth.

For years, Western analysts dismissed North Korea as poor, starving, and technologically backward. But while the world looked elsewhere, Pyongyang built an arsenal that now includes:

• Hwasong-20: a massive, 80-ton, solid-fuel ICBM with MIRVs and a possible 15,000 km range
• Hwasong-18: a deployed, modern, road-mobile ICBM resembling Russia’s Topol-M
• Hwasong-17: heavy liquid-fuel ICBM capable of intercontinental flight
• Hwasong-16B: North Korea’s first hypersonic glide-vehicle missile
• KN-23, KN-24, KN-25: short-range nuclear-capable tactical systems
• Pukguksong-5 SLBMs & the Hero Kim Gun-ok submarine: giving North Korea real second-strike capability

All of this under crushing sanctions, with limited industrial capacity—and yet, the results rival the arsenals of much richer nations.

North Korea’s goal is simple: build a survivable, diverse, and mobile nuclear shield that makes any regime-change operation impossible. Whether the world likes it or not, Pyongyang has succeeded.

Is North Korea now a global nuclear power? Has the world underestimated Kim Jong Un’s arsenal for too long?
Tell us what you think in the comments—and subscribe to APT Opinion for more deep geopolitical analysis.

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Transcript
00:00Tonight on APT Opinion, has North Korea already crossed the point where it's no longer a regional threat,
00:07but a global nuclear power we've underestimated for far too long?
00:12Tell me what you think in the comments.
00:14Because what we're about to walk through is not the North Korea most people imagine.
00:30Not the caricature of a starving, isolated country firing occasional test missiles into the sea.
00:37No, this is a North Korea that has spent the last decade quietly, methodically,
00:42doing something Western intelligence agencies said it simply could not sustain,
00:47turning itself into one of the most heavily armed nuclear states on Earth.
00:53And the shocking thing is, it has done this while under crushing sanctions,
01:01with an economy that struggles to meet basic needs,
01:04and with almost no formal access to international finance or technology.
01:09Yet, its missile program, not just the nuclear warheads,
01:12but the launch systems, the propulsion, the targeting technology,
01:16has exploded in capability.
01:18The basic question becomes, how does a country this size pull this off?
01:23How does a state with limited industrial capacity sustain a weapons program,
01:28on par with major global powers?
01:31The answer, if you look closely, is almost philosophical.
01:35North Korea has one single national obsession,
01:39one single organizing principle,
01:42one single strategic goal.
01:44To build a nuclear missile shield so terrifying,
01:47so survivable, so varied,
01:49that no opponent, neither South Korea, nor Japan, nor the United States,
01:54can realistically consider a first strike,
01:57or even a regime change operation.
01:59That obsession has pushed Pyongyang into a nuclear category
02:02that now sits alongside India and Pakistan.
02:05And in some technologies,
02:06like maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicles,
02:09and mobile solid fuel ICBMs,
02:11North Korea may have leaped ahead of them entirely.
02:14And this is where the story really gets unsettling for the rest of the world.
02:19Over the last two years,
02:20Pyongyang has begun rolling out a new generation of missiles,
02:24intercontinental, medium-range, and short-range systems
02:27that look nothing like the crude prototypes analysts expected.
02:31These aren't improvised, nor are they experimental.
02:35These are polished, mass-produced, road-mobile systems
02:38that resemble, and sometimes almost identically resemble,
02:42the systems fielded by far wealthier militaries.
02:45And what's more, some of them are already deployed.
02:49Let's start with the moment that truly signaled a new era.
02:52The WPK has spent decades promising a future
03:04built on ju-she, self-reliance, and technological defiance.
03:08And this parade felt like the culmination of that ideology.
03:12The star of the parade, the absolute jaw-dropper,
03:15was the unveiling of the new Hwasong-20
03:18mobile intercontinental ballistic missile.
03:22This thing is enormous.
03:24An 80-tonne, three-stage, solid-fuel monster,
03:27reminiscent of Russia's Yars system.
03:30It's mounted on an 11-axle transporter launcher
03:33that doubles as a mobile launch pad.
03:35In missile engineering, mobility is survival.
03:38Mobility is deterrence.
03:40And North Korea has learnt that lesson well.
03:43The Hwasong-20 also carries MIRVs,
03:46multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles.
03:50This means one missile, one launch, one flight arc.
03:55But several nuclear warheads that separate mid-flight
03:58and strike different targets.
04:00A few weeks before the October parade,
04:02North Korea tested a new solid-fuel engine,
04:05believed to be designed for this missile.
04:07And here's the kicker.
04:08If the estimated range of 15,000 kilometers is accurate,
04:12North Korea now possesses, in theory,
04:14the ability to strike any point in the continental United States.
04:20The Hwasong-20 hasn't flown yet.
04:22But the day that test happens,
04:25the global security landscape shifts.
04:28Now, the Hwasong-18 is more mature.
04:31It's already deployed.
04:32And it's a lighter, modernized, solid-fuel design
04:35that closely resembles Russia's Topol M.
04:38Its range, also intercontinental,
04:40is thought to be around 12,000 kilometers.
04:43This is not a prototype.
04:45It's a weapon already integrated
04:47into North Korea's strategic forces.
04:50It first appeared in 2023
04:51and it has been successfully launched.
04:55And then, there's the Hwasong-17,
04:57the big liquid-fuel missile,
04:59the one that first shocked analysts back in 2020.
05:03This missile,
05:04with a range also approaching 15,000 kilometers,
05:07is mounted on a heavy, multi-axle vehicle
05:10that lifts it vertically and prepares it for launch.
05:14It's old-school, yes.
05:15Slow, vulnerable compared to solid-fuel systems.
05:19But it's powerful.
05:20And you know what?
05:21It shows how North Korea used Soviet designs
05:24and re-engineered them for its own purposes.
05:28What's important here is the scale.
05:30North Korea's ICBM arsenal is no longer a dream
05:34or only on paper in a file somewhere in Pyongyang.
05:37It exists.
05:39The exact number?
05:40Hard to say.
05:42Open-source imagery shows only six Hwasong-17 launchers,
05:46though production may be ongoing.
05:48The solid-fuel systems complicate estimates,
05:50but informed guesses suggest
05:52perhaps a dozen deployed mobile ICBMs,
05:56solid and liquid combined.
05:57A dozen nuclear-armed missiles
05:59that can reach the continental United States
06:01is not a symbolic force.
06:04It is a strategic force.
06:06Now, this is only the first pillar
06:08of North Korea's missile shield.
06:11The second pillar, the medium-range system,
06:13is arguably even more dangerous
06:15because this is where Pyongyang
06:17has embraced maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicles.
06:20Hypersonic glide vehicles
06:22are the nightmare of missile defense.
06:24They fly at enormous speeds,
06:26but unlike traditional ballistic warheads,
06:28they maneuver unpredictably,
06:30slipping under radar arcs
06:31and defeating interception algorithms.
06:34Now, on the 2nd of April, 2024,
06:36North Korea launched the Hwasong-16B,
06:39its first hypersonic missile.
06:41This was not a stunt.
06:43This was a functional launch
06:45of a solid-fuel missile
06:46carrying a hypersonic gliding warhead
06:48with a range of 5,000 kilometers.
06:51So, that means it can strike targets
06:53anywhere in Southeast Asia
06:55and potentially U.S. bases
06:57scattered across the Pacific,
06:59Guam included.
07:00And then North Korea unveiled
07:02the Hwasong-11MA,
07:04a twin-missile mobile launcher
07:06firing two hypersonic glide vehicles
07:08with a range of around 1,000 kilometers.
07:12If North Korea has solved the guidance problem,
07:15and that's the only real question,
07:17this system could target U.S. aircraft carriers
07:20far off the Korean coastline.
07:23Carrier strike groups depend on standoff distance.
07:26A maneuverable hypersonic missile
07:27with a 1,000-kilometer range
07:29erodes that distance dramatically.
07:33And then, there's a fascinating hybrid.
07:36The Pugug-Song-2,
07:37originally designed for submarines,
07:39then re-engineered for land use.
07:41A 1,500-kilometer solid-fuel missile
07:44that might, I repeat,
07:46might carry nuclear warheads.
07:48The fact that North Korea
07:49can adapt submarine designs
07:51for land launch
07:52tells you just how modular
07:54their missile development has become, right?
07:57And speaking of submarines,
07:58this is where people
07:59underestimate North Korea the most.
08:01In 2023, Pyongyang unveiled
08:03the Hirokim Gunok,
08:05its first true ballistic missile submarine
08:08equipped with vertical launchers
08:10for Pugug-Song-5 missiles.
08:12These sea-launched missiles
08:13have a range of about 3,000 kilometers
08:15and that instantly puts U.S. bases
08:18in Japan and Guam at risk
08:20from below the surface.
08:22This matters.
08:23It matters because
08:24a sea-launched ballistic missile
08:26gives you survivability,
08:28second-strike capability.
08:29It can hide, it can move.
08:31It complicates military planning
08:33in ways that only a handful of nations,
08:35Russia, China, U.S., India,
08:37have had to deal with so far.
08:39And now, North Korea joins that club.
08:42Finally, the short-range missiles,
08:44the frontline systems,
08:45these are no less heavyweight.
08:47The KN-25,
08:48which looks like a huge
08:49multiple rocket launcher,
08:51actually fires guided missiles
08:52with individual correction systems.
08:55In 2024, on the 23rd of April,
08:58North Korea used these rockets
08:59in a simulated nuclear counter-strike exercise
09:01and openly declared
09:03that they can carry nuclear warheads.
09:05A 400-kilometer nuclear-capable rocket
09:08that can saturate targets in South Korea
09:11is a devastating battlefield tool.
09:14And then, there's the Hwasong-11 KN-23,
09:17famous online as Iskander-4
09:20because it resembles Russia's 9M723 missile.
09:24Mobile, rail-launched, sea-launched variants,
09:27all with a range of 600 kilometers
09:29and the ability to carry compact nuclear payloads.
09:33This missile alone gives North Korea
09:35the ability to hit any target in South Korea
09:38with precision.
09:41And then, the KN-24 and the KN-11D.
09:45North Korea's take on attack-ems,
09:47but modernized,
09:48more range, more accuracy,
09:50more missiles per launcher.
09:52These systems allow simultaneous strikes
09:55against dozens of targets.
09:57If all of this sounds like
09:58an impossible level of sophistication
10:00for a country under sanctions,
10:02well, that's the point.
10:04Even if North Korea had only 50%
10:07of all the missile capability
10:09I've just described,
10:10that would still be pretty big.
10:13And not all of it can be dismissed as propaganda
10:16because, think about it,
10:17if it was,
10:19would South Korea and Japan issue alerts
10:21every time North Korea rattled some rockets?
10:24The world expected North Korea to stagnate.
10:27Instead, it evolved.
10:29Yes, in only one direction.
10:32But it did evolve.
10:33Quietly, methodically
10:35and obsessed with that one goal.
10:37Building a missile force capable of ensuring
10:40the regime can never be attacked
10:42without catastrophic consequences.
10:45Tonight on APT Opinion,
10:47that is the uncomfortable truth.
10:49North Korea is no longer just a regional nuclear pile
10:52rattling sabers across the DMZ.
10:55It is now an advanced missile state,
10:57one whose arsenal spans every range category,
11:01uses every major propulsion technology
11:03and increasingly mirrors the systems
11:05fielded by far richer nations.
11:08And for a long time,
11:10the world denied it,
11:11dismissed it.
11:12Because it didn't play into Western narratives
11:14of a sanctioned, outcast state
11:17that they drew North Korea to be.
11:19But here at APT,
11:21we believe in stripping away the layers.
11:23Subscribe to us.
11:25The world is only just beginning to grapple
11:27with a strong North Korea.
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