SoFi Technologies is one of the most polarizing stocks in the market — soaring 73% year-to-date while analysts remain sharply divided. Some see SoFi as an overpriced bank with a stretched valuation, while others view it as an early-stage fintech powerhouse with massive future upside. In this video, we break down SoFi’s explosive membership growth, its rapidly rising deposit base, its path to GAAP profitability, and why its valuation metrics don’t fit neatly into traditional banking models.
Meanwhile, critics warn of margin pressure, rising operating costs, and credit risk. Short interest now sits near 9% as traders bet against SoFi’s aggressive expansion. But with 12.6 million members, $33 billion in deposits, eight straight quarters of profitability, and a brand-new crypto trading division — SoFi is shaping up to be a hybrid digital bank–tech platform the market hasn’t fully priced in yet. Is SOFI stock a buy, sell, or hold in 2025? Drop your thoughts in the comments — where do YOU see SoFi going next?
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Meanwhile, critics warn of margin pressure, rising operating costs, and credit risk. Short interest now sits near 9% as traders bet against SoFi’s aggressive expansion. But with 12.6 million members, $33 billion in deposits, eight straight quarters of profitability, and a brand-new crypto trading division — SoFi is shaping up to be a hybrid digital bank–tech platform the market hasn’t fully priced in yet. Is SOFI stock a buy, sell, or hold in 2025? Drop your thoughts in the comments — where do YOU see SoFi going next?
📧 Email: cryptorobothelp@gmail.com
💰 Affiliate Links
Sofi Checking & Savings – Get $25 free ➝ https://www.sofi.com/invite/money?gcp=16a53d0f-b4b2-441d-9100-cfb506305260&isAliasGcp=false
Sofi Investing – Free $25 in stock ➝ https://www.sofi.com/invite/invest?gcp=ab31edd8-701e-4109-9225-51b41e35d246&isAliasGcp=false
Coinbase Exchange – Earn up to $300 BTC ➝ https://coinbase.com/join/YPUQLCY?src=referral-link
Tracking Tools – CoinGecko | CoinMarketCap
Trading Tools – Get $15 off TradingView ➝ https://www.tradingview.com/pricing/?share_your_love=cryptonextsteps
#SoFi #SOFIStock #Fintech #Investing #StockMarket
#TechStocks #Banking #SoFiTechnologies #CryptoTrading
#FinanceNews #GrowthStocks #Earnings #WallStreet
#FintechRevolution #DigitalBanking
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LearningTranscript
00:00Welcome back to The Deep Dive. Today, we are tackling a big one, a name we get asked about all the time.
00:06We certainly do.
00:07We're plunging headfirst into SoFi Technologies, ticker SOFI, a company that has, I think it's fair to say, become one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street.
00:17Oh, absolutely. It's a fascinating case study in modern finance.
00:21Yeah.
00:21I mean, the entire investment community is just split right down the middle.
00:25And when you dig into the sources, the analyst reports, it all seems to boil down to one critical question.
00:30Right, it does. How do you value a company that, you know, started its life in student loan refinancing, but has aggressively evolved into this financial super app?
00:41That question is everything, because you've got this stock that's delivered just massive gains up nearly 73% year to date.
00:49But it's also had this sharp double digit pullback recently.
00:53It's a constant reminder that volatility is just, well, it's the price of admission here.
00:57Yeah.
00:58And for long-term investors watching the space, that turbulence might be an intriguing entry point.
01:02So that's our mission today to really unpack that tension.
01:06And the core conflict, you know, among the analysts is, should we treat SoFi like a slow traditional bank or...
01:12Like a high growth, high multiple fintech platform.
01:15Exactly. Because if it's a bank, the stock is just impossibly expensive.
01:19But if you see it as a tech platform, the price actually starts to look, well, maybe even discounted.
01:26So based on the data we have, which side of that argument is winning right now?
01:30Well, the prevailing evidence, it strongly leans toward the high growth fintech model.
01:34The key performance indicators are pretty clear.
01:38The growth story for SoFi is, believe it or not, still in its early chapters.
01:42Okay, so let's unpack that.
01:44Let's start with the core bullish thesis.
01:46It all seems to begin with their user acquisition, what the sources keep calling the membership machine.
01:52It's the perfect name for it.
01:53And this isn't just about, you know, adding names to a list.
01:55This is about durable growth.
01:56SoFi has now reported record member counts for 27 consecutive quarters.
02:0127? That's just, that's an incredible streak.
02:04It is. It speaks volumes about the stickiness of their model, right?
02:07The cross-product approach is clearly working.
02:09And the pace of that adoption, that's what really caught my eye in the reports.
02:13The sources confirm that between 2019 and just recently, Q3 2025, their membership grew nearly 18-fold.
02:2218-fold. It's an explosive adoption curve.
02:25Very few financial services companies, even the digital native ones, can claim anything like that.
02:31And it's not slowing down, is it?
02:32Not at all.
02:33That's the key.
02:34This isn't just historical momentum.
02:36In Q3 2025 alone, they added almost a million new users, which pushed their total unique member count past 12.6 million.
02:45That's a staggering 34.8% year-over-year increase.
02:50So let's connect the dots.
02:51Why is this more than just a vanity metric?
02:54For a financial firm, what does that kind of user growth fundamentally change?
02:57It changes everything.
02:58It really does.
02:59New members don't just, you know, open a checking account.
03:01They expand the depositor base.
03:02Right.
03:02This enhances client diversity, it improves the quality of their earnings, and this is the most important part, it creates operating leverage.
03:09So it's like a software company.
03:11Exactly like a software company.
03:13Once the tech is built, the app, the banking infrastructure, the marginal cost of serving that 12 millionth customer is incredibly low.
03:21That's operating leverage taking hold in real time.
03:24And this leads us right to the huge advantage they got back in 2022.
03:28The banking charter.
03:29The banking charter.
03:30Absolutely critical.
03:31That charter lets them function like a full bank, but without all the baggage, you know, the physical branches.
03:37And since getting it, SoFi has amassed $33 billion in customer deposits.
03:42Which is the financial holy grail.
03:44It is.
03:45Because those deposits provide a low-cost, stable funding source for their loan book.
03:49They don't have to rely on expensive, volatile wholesale funding markets like other fintechs do.
03:54Okay, but to put that number in context, $33 billion, it's still pretty small compared to, say, an Ally Financial, which has, what, $143 billion?
04:03That's correct, yes.
04:04But the key here is the acceleration.
04:06It matters more than the absolute number right now.
04:09While many legacy banks, including Ally, have really struggled with deposit growth recently.
04:14SoFi is speeding up.
04:14SoFi is speeding up.
04:16They are actively capturing market share when funding costs are high for everyone.
04:21That's a huge structural advantage.
04:23It suggests their revenue should grow much faster than their expenses over the long term.
04:27And actually, before we jump into the whole valuation debate.
04:30The big one.
04:31The really big one.
04:32I just want to take a quick moment.
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04:45Or leave a comment.
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04:54It truly does.
04:55Okay, so let's pivot.
04:57If that membership machine is so effective, why is there so much skepticism?
05:02Right.
05:02The bears.
05:03The biggest weapon the bears use against this stock is purely numerical.
05:08It's the valuation.
05:09They point right to the high multiple.
05:10So SoFi trades at a forward price to earnings, or PE, of roughly 45X.
05:15Which is high.
05:16And crucially, a price to book multiple of 3.6X.
05:20And let's just pause there.
05:21Price to book is like the foundational metric for banks.
05:26Yeah.
05:26They're asset heavy.
05:27So you're valuing their assets against their stock price.
05:30And a traditional bank usually trades at, what, a PB of around 1.2X?
05:34Approximately, yeah.
05:35So if you use that yardstick, SoFi looks almost three times as expensive.
05:39And that suggests a huge, painful correction is coming, if they're just a bank.
05:46But that's the whole argument.
05:47That's the whole argument.
05:48What's fascinating here is that the valuation depends entirely on your comparison group.
05:53The bulls argue that comparing SoFi to a brick-and-mortar bank with high overhead and slow growth just fends.
06:00It misses the whole point.
06:02But hold on.
06:02Isn't that a little convenient?
06:03I mean, they are a nationally chartered bank.
06:05They have to follow all those same strict capital requirements that slow down pure tech companies.
06:10That's a fair challenge.
06:11It is.
06:11But the sources suggest a better comparison is the credit services industry.
06:15These are fintechs with higher growth, lower physical costs.
06:19And how do they trade?
06:20Stocks in that industry often trade at average PB multiples of 4.8X.
06:24So if you look at it through that lens, SoFi's 3.6X multiple suddenly looks...
06:30Discounted.
06:31Surprisingly, yeah.
06:32It looks discounted.
06:33Okay, here's where it gets really interesting for me.
06:35It's the profitability momentum.
06:37This isn't just some theoretical growth story anymore, is it?
06:39They're actually turning that scale into real earnings.
06:43Precisely.
06:44They turned profitable under GAAP generally accepted accounting principles in 2024.
06:49That is a huge psychological milestone for investors.
06:53Because GAAP is the official measure.
06:54No adjustments.
06:55Exactly.
06:56And they have now marked eight consecutive quarters of positive earnings.
06:59And you can see that operating leverage taking hold in the margin expansion.
07:02Adjusted EBITDA margins just hit 29%.
07:05I mean, that's up from just 3% back in 2021.
07:08And to unpack that jump, that massive jump from 3% to 29%, it's all about vertical integration.
07:14They own their own tech platforms, Galileo and Technesis.
07:16So when a new member signs up...
07:18The cost is just a variable software cost on platforms they own.
07:22It's not some expensive fee to a vendor.
07:25They're processing loans, payments, everything, through their own internal rails.
07:30That's what's driving the margin expansion.
07:32And if we connect this to the bigger picture, it explains that premium price tag.
07:37Investors paying 45 times earnings aren't paying for today.
07:41They're paying for tomorrow.
07:42Correct.
07:43The market is pricing in an earnings growth outlook of nearly 60% for 2026.
07:47That's the crucial link.
07:49If they hit those aggressive targets, their current valuation will look cheap in hindsight.
07:54Still, we have to look at the other side.
07:55The market is skeptical.
07:56I mean, roughly 9% of the bank's float is shorted.
07:59What are the big concerns for the bears?
08:01They've got a list of legitimate risks for sure.
08:03Most of them revolve around the macro economy.
08:05The big three are net interest margin shrinkage, rising operating expenses, and credit quality.
08:12Okay, let's start with net interest margin, or NM.
08:15So if interest rates decline, SoFi's margin, the spread between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits, could shrink.
08:22Because they offer those high deposit rates to attract customers.
08:25They do.
08:26Their NIM is already a bit thinner.
08:28However, it's worth noting their loan book is full of variable rate personal loans,
08:33and they use hedging strategies to try and minimize that volatility.
08:37So there is some mitigation there.
08:39And the second point?
08:40Operating expenses.
08:41Yes.
08:42Costs are creeping up, especially in sales and marketing.
08:44You have to spend money to fuel that membership machine.
08:47Right.
08:48And the bears worry that expense growth could outpace revenue growth, at least temporarily, stalling that operating leverage story.
08:55And then the classic worry for any fast-growing lender, credit quality.
09:01The fear that rapid growth means they're lending to riskier borrowers who might default if the economy sours.
09:07That is the narrative, yes.
09:08But the recent data actually provides a strong counterpoint.
09:12The 90-day delinquency rate on their personal loans was just 0.43% in September.
09:17And that's down from earlier in the year?
09:18Significantly down from the peaks we saw earlier in the year.
09:21And on top of that, their provisions for credit losses are lower year over year.
09:25So it seems like their credit quality is actually holding up surprisingly well.
09:28Okay, let's turn to what I think is the massive differentiator, the thing that really separates them from those legacy banks.
09:36The crypto wildcard.
09:37The crypto wildcard.
09:38It's a really unique strategic element.
09:40As of late 2025, SoFi is the only nationally chartered bank that offers direct crypto trading to its customers.
09:48That feels like a huge structural advantage, especially for attracting younger, more engaged investors.
09:53It is.
09:54That's the very demographic that fuels the whole high-growth model.
09:57But what's the actual strategic value?
09:59Is it just good PR or is it hitting the bottom line?
10:02Well, it does introduce a new revenue stream, the volatile one.
10:04But its real value, I think, is in customer acquisition and engagement.
10:10It solidifies the SoFi brand as a forward-thinking super app, not just a bank.
10:15It's a powerful customer touchpoint that traditional banks just can't match right now.
10:20So wrapping this all up, where do the analysts ultimately land on SoFi?
10:23What's the Wall Street consensus?
10:25The consensus right now is defined by caution.
10:28It's a hold rating based on 16 top-tier analysts.
10:31And what's that breakdown look like?
10:32It's five buys, seven holds, and four sells.
10:35The fact that hold is the biggest category really confirms that divided opinion we talked about.
10:40And the price target.
10:42The average analyst stock price target is $27.21, which, from current levels, actually implies about 2% downside over the next 12 months.
10:51So the market is basically saying, show me.
10:54They expect flat performance until the company proves those 2026 earnings targets are real.
10:59That's it, exactly.
10:59The final conclusion from our sources is that SoFi is a volatile, nuanced investment.
11:05You have to look way beyond traditional banking metrics.
11:08Yes, the valuation looks high, but it's 38% revenue growth in those rapidly expanding margins.
11:12They help justify that premium.
11:15So the key takeaway for you, the listener, seems to be this.
11:17The combination of that accelerating member growth, the operating leverage from their tech, and product innovation like crypto makes SoFi a compelling, if very volatile, growth opportunity for a long-term portfolio.
11:28And that brings us to our final provocative thought for you to think about this week.
11:33We talked about how SoFi's crypto offering is a critical customer acquisition tool.
11:39So given that massive focus on growth across the entire financial sector, what kind of regulatory shifts might we see if more chartered banks start to view crypto trading as an essential tool, not just a niche offering?
11:51What does that mean for competition?
11:53Exactly.
11:54What does that aggressive push for crypto integration mean for the competitive landscape of the entire banking sector?
11:59A fascinating potential catalyst to watch.
12:02That is all the time we have for this deep dive into SoFi.
12:05We'll catch you next time.
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