Monday Night's Top NFL Touchdown Props and Player Insights

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Transcript

00:00You know me.

00:00I like to look at those touchdown props in the game tonight.

00:02Javante Williams is a favorite at minus 185.

00:05He scores a lot.

00:06He's got eight rushing touchdowns on the season.

00:07Ashton Jinty to minus 155.

00:09You figure if they get down to the goal end, there's an opportunity here.

00:12Brock Bowers, minus 105.

00:13But then you get that plus money here.

00:15CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.

00:17If I would tell you tonight, would you be shocked if one,

00:20at least one of those guys, I should say, scores a touchdown,

00:23it's plus money in your back pocket.

00:24And we saw some of your plays come up here.

00:26How do you play in that wide receiver combo there for the Dallas Cowboys?

00:30It has to be CeeDee Lamb.

00:31And, you know, I can make the argument for Jake Ferguson that I like Lamb,

00:34Pickens, and Ferguson.

00:35I think at least two of the three come through tonight.

00:38But CeeDee Lamb's got to score.

00:40Again, I've always talked about this with you, Donnie,

00:41literally for years at this point.

00:42When a player has this high of a target share,

00:44when they have this high of a red zone target share,

00:46and they're simply not scoring,

00:48they're seeing double-digit targets and back-to-back leagues,

00:50I'm willing to buy into that player having positive touchdown regression.

00:53When you have an over 21% target share,

00:55the red zone target share looks a little bit fluky this year

00:58because he missed so many games.

00:59We have to isolate the sample size that he played versus he didn't play.

01:02Jake Ferguson technically leads the team with the highest red zone target share.

01:05But they paid CeeDee Lamb, you know, a couple years ago all that money.

01:08He's been going without touchdowns.

01:10I just think this is the spot that he scores.

01:12It's not a super big number,

01:13but it's the right time to back CeeDee Lamb,

01:14and we're getting plus money at it.

01:16We're getting plus money at it.