00:00There's a wide expectation that the Federal Reserve Board might lower again in December.
00:05Do you have a view on whether if the Fed does lower, it should be 25 basis points or 50 basis points as the president?
00:11Or do you have a view on what might be better for the economy?
00:14Well, I first want to say that I have high regard for Jay Powell.
00:18I've known him for a long time, have had economic conversations with him many, many times during the last administration in this time, too.
00:26And, you know, I think at times he and I have had policy disagreements, but that's like that's where it is.
00:35And I think that an example of a policy disagreement that Jay and I might have is that, you know, I sort of agreed with the previous two meetings that it was right time to cut rates.
00:49And then after the last meeting, the sort of two things that happened that surprised me looking at the macro economy is that we had the shutdown that happened and then was longer than expected, which is a negative for GDP.
01:04And then we had an inflation report, which was much better than everybody expected, why 48 people at Bloomberg missed it on the high side.
01:13And so I'm thinking if I'm sitting at the FOMC thinking about how that affects my decision at the next meeting, then I'd say I'm more likely to move because we got like two things that say, oh, well, the only news we have is more likely to move.
01:26And then somehow, you know, Jay decided that the news between the two meetings made him less likely to move.
01:35And that's an example of a policy disagreement I have.
01:38And so I would guess that the fact that he came in signaling less likely to move makes the likelihood of them deciding to go 50 basis points lower.
01:48You think you think it's more likely to do 50 than 20?
01:51No, I think they're not likely to do 50.
01:53More likely to do 25?
01:54I think that that's probably what I mean, I'm reading the tea leaves that they're showing us.
02:00Would that satisfy the president, you think?
02:02I think that the president thinks rates can be a lot lower.
02:05And I agree with him on that.
02:06OK, so obviously you were one of five people that the secretary of treasury has on a short list to be the next chairman of the Fed.
02:14Why would you want to be chairman of the Fed?
02:16Right now, you get to work with the president every day, and he's not criticizing you at all.
02:22So are you sure you want that job?
02:27For me, I think that being director of the National Economic Council is my dream job.
02:31And if the president asks me to be Fed chair, then of course, I'll do it.
02:36But if I'm not Fed chair, don't be disappointed for me, because I love the job that I have right now.
02:40And I'm so honored to be able to work with the president every day.
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