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00:43One flight's one flight, and if it holds 50 people or holds 500 people, it's still one flight.
00:49When you talk about which actual flights are reduced here, is there kind of an airport or a type of flight that is more maybe at risk of being cut in
00:59those reductions?
01:01Yeah, well, the FAA put out a command basically to the airlines telling them to reduce the flights, and they told them to reduce flights at specific airports. Now, all airports are kind of interconnected, so the 5,000 or so commercial airports we have in the country, just those 40 are going to affect all of the other ones in total.
01:18But what I think the airlines, it's important to keep in mind that they are businesses, so they're going to make the cuts where it makes business sense so they can meet the capacity target, but then also maximize their revenue, minimize their cost losses, things like that.
01:33So I would expect flights that are kind of profit losers, low-volume flights, low-passenger flights to probably be cut first.
01:42Because, again, if they have a flight that's got six people on it and they cut that flight, that's one of them they can drop and then keep the one that has 50 people on it and make more money that way.
01:51So that's going to be the kind of thing. I think they're going to probably look at cutting redundant flights where they've got two aircraft that are going to the same place, maybe an hour apart, trying to figure out how to combine those into a single flight.
02:02Because, again, it's going to be from the airline's perspective. I mean, obviously, safety is always going to be the big thing. It's why we're making these reductions to begin with.
02:09But from the airline's perspective, it's going to be managing costs, managing losses, managing their revenue, and that's going to probably be the big driver for them.
02:17As we go and look at shutdowns past here, have we seen a situation like this where we're talking 4 percent, flight reductions 10 percent, and then potentially, according to Duffy, 20 percent? Have we ever seen anything like that?
02:33Well, we have seen the extreme end of that. 9-11, when they canceled everything, was 100 percent.
02:39But in the days following that, where they allowed a few more flights, a few more flights, a few more flights, as that kind of got going.
02:44But we actually do flight reductions and flight kind of quotas, if you will, constantly, all year round, especially when there's bad weather.
02:53We see, if there's predicted, say, some really bad weather going into the Northeast, the number of flights allowed into the Northeast and into those airports will be reduced.
03:01It's just it's not usually something that's public-facing.
03:04Usually, it's something that the FAA will say, hey, we've got to reduce capacity because of weather, and then the airlines will handle it, and the airlines will just deal with the passengers,
03:12and everybody just kind of thinks the airlines just decided to do that.
03:15But it's a big coordinated effort between everybody involved in the National Airspace System.
03:20Are you unsatisfied with your current prompts and output? I'll let you in on a little.
03:24What do you expect with government systems under strain?
03:26Because keep in mind that the TSA is also in that same kind of boat that the air traffic controllers are in, as are all the maintenance people that work in the airfields.
03:34So I'd expect people to see longer lines.
03:37I'd expect people to see fewer security checkpoints open.
03:39I'd expect people to see longer, maybe a little more hassle-prone kind of things where they're trying to get their flights resolved with the airlines.
03:47A thing I kind of recommend for people, though, is just kind of keep in mind your own personal risk tolerance.
03:54We already know that there are going to be flights canceled.
03:58There are going to be flights delayed.
04:00So maybe if people are super, super strict with their time, say they're traveling over Thanksgiving, and they absolutely have to be back to work Monday morning,
04:09maybe they ought to fly back Friday or Saturday and not wait until try to catch a flight on Sunday.
04:13You know, manage your personal risk, and I think what we're going to see a lot for the past year experience is that difference between the people that manage their risk
04:21and it kind of either planned ahead or allowed for the additional time and stuff versus the people that didn't.
04:27And that's going to be amplified over the holiday season because, you know, say the month of October wasn't too bad because a lot of October is the usual daily professionals that travel a lot.
04:35You know, I travel a lot.
04:36You know, maybe you travel a lot.
04:37But then coming to holiday season, we get some of those folks that Thanksgiving is the only time they get on an airplane the entire year.
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