00:00Most governments are running very, most developed economies are running very, very aggressive fiscal plays and that, you know, underlies economic strength and forward momentum.
00:09And so I think it's a pretty constructive environment, give you lots of things that could go wrong, but at the moment those don't seem likely in the short-term distribution of outcomes.
00:18Of course, it is likely there'll be, you know, a 10 to 20 percent drawdown in equity markets sometime in the next 12 to 24 months.
00:25And I'd say there are very few people in this room that don't think that that's a meaningful possibility.
00:30It doesn't mean that the general direction of capital flows, investment, portfolio allocation is changing.
00:35It just means things run and then they pull back so people can reassess.
00:39Diversification is still, diversifying from the public market is still part of the theme going forward.
00:45Yeah, I think the theme is important. And importantly, when you think about some of the developments that folks on this stage are looking at where they can have strategies that incorporate some of the best of public and private investing in a single product, that could be interesting.
00:59But diversifying amongst the private asset class and best of breed and having hygiene around diligence, really knowing where those asset managers have excellence is important.
01:10And then obviously layering into that over the long span of time.
01:13Is it all sustainable going into 26? We tend to think of 2036 more than 2026.
01:19But if you look forward, what are some of the things that are sustainable?
01:23AI deployment and diffusion, adoption, productivity will continue to get better.
01:30It will take a long time, but it will continue to get better.
01:33Diversification into non-dollar assets. We continue to see demand for non-dollar assets around the world.
01:39Dispersion in terms of corporate opportunities and company opportunities around the world for investment.
01:47We talked a little bit about deregulation. There's a positive growth impulse to that.
01:53And I think the economies and Cullum talked about this. And I always love presenting after Cullum.
01:59It makes it so much easier. So thank you.
02:01If you look at the deregulation, I think that's a positive growth impulse.
02:06And last, earnings. Earnings are strong and that's super important.
02:10I think if you look at the credit markets as well, if you look at 30 years of data, we're in the richest decile of credit spreads.
02:18So stock markets aren't cheap, credit's not cheap, and there's speculation in both precious metals and also cryptocurrency.
02:25So I think on a near-term valuation side, there's some challenges.
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