00:00So, what's the talk of the trading flaws in Europe and Asia this week?
00:04Victoria Scholar is the Head of Investment at International Investor.
00:08Great to see you, Victoria.
00:09Look, I want to start in Europe.
00:10A busy week of central bank decisions and earnings ahead.
00:13What's piqued your interest?
00:16Yeah, a lot of earnings out this week.
00:18We heard from Ryanair today.
00:21It reported better profits and revenues,
00:25partly thanks to higher airfares and also the timing of Easter.
00:28And lots more earnings to look out for in the week ahead.
00:31But it's the first day of trade of the month.
00:33So, that really sets the tone for how November and the rest of the year could play out.
00:38And, of course, we know that stemming from the US but rippling across Europe and Asia
00:43has been concerned about over-valuations in the tech space, particularly from AI.
00:48We know that the NASDAQ has had this massive bull run.
00:52And that's been bullish for the whole of US equities.
00:55Just today, we saw this big deal between Amazon and OpenAI that's continued to lift risk appetite.
01:02I think investors have also been paying attention to these PMI readings.
01:05We had China's manufacturing reading that was a bit disappointing.
01:09But then we had some strong figures on the same prints out of Spain.
01:14You mentioned the PMI data that's come out.
01:18I mean, could that shift the needle on Threadneedle Street
01:20when the Bank of England makes their decision on interest rates on Thursday?
01:24I don't think so.
01:28I think, really, it's going to be looking at inflation,
01:31which so far has come in a bit better than expected in the most recent reading.
01:36Unemployment also has ticked up.
01:37So, there's a bit more slack in the labour market.
01:40So, there are reasons for the Bank of England to cut interest rates.
01:44But the big unknown, really, is the budget at the end of the month.
01:48So, we know that the Chancellor's going to lay out her plans for taxation and spending.
01:54And those fiscal plans could have an impact on inflation.
01:57So, it's most likely that the central bank will hold off from changing interest rates
02:02and keep that base rate at 4%.
02:05But there is a chance that the central bank could vote for that 25 basis point cut.
02:10It looks like it's going to be a pretty tight vote.
02:12And we know that analysts at Goldman Sachs are actually expecting a cut.
02:16So, lots of attention is going to be on that decision on Thursday at lunchtime.
02:21Certainly is.
02:22Let's move over to Asia.
02:23China trade data is going to be released later in the week.
02:26What's the export story likely to be there?
02:30Well, obviously, the big story when it comes to China's trade data this year
02:34is the pain suffered from Trump's America First shift away from globalisation towards protectionism
02:40and the damage that that has caused, especially for China,
02:43China, which is an economy entirely fuelled by cheap exports around the world.
02:49But we saw that last month China's exports actually came in a bit stronger than expected.
02:54And that was partly thanks to strength outside of the US.
02:58And also, there was a bounce back because Beijing has been diversifying beyond the US borders.
03:04And we know that some Chinese businesses have actually been trying to get round the tariffs.
03:08They've been rerouting their exports to Southeast Asia before they get to the United States.
03:13So, countries like Indonesia and Vietnam.
03:17So, and the fact that we have seen this thawing in relations lately between the two countries
03:22with this emergence of the trade deal, it's not going to show up in this month's data.
03:25But perhaps it could start to see that export and import data improve in the months ahead.
03:31Thanks, Victoria.
03:32Always great to talk to you, Victoria Scholar from Interactive Investors.
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