00:01We come off of Malaysia, Japan, with very positive vibes.
00:05And it seems like both sides, the U.S. and China, have really brought down the temperature in the last few days.
00:09What are you expecting to come out of Gyeongju?
00:12Well, what am I expecting, in a way?
00:16What are we expecting?
00:17Like, the International Chamber of Commerce, we're in 170 countries, okay?
00:2170% is in the global south.
00:23So, when we speak, I'm kind of channeling, I suppose, the most inclusive business voice.
00:27What we want is to get some certainty, because the interesting thing for us is having spent a lot of time in Africa, Asia, Latin America, Middle East, and elsewhere, just talking to business there, and then surveying them.
00:41The number one concern they actually have is actually not tariffs, so they hate them.
00:46It's actually uncertainty.
00:48So, getting a level of certainty around what the framework will look like moving forward is critical.
00:53And I think, you know, funnily enough, even though it's quite complicated being in Gyeongju, when you think about the history of this place, as kind of a calm kind of center, where agreements were capable of being met historically in Korea, where it actually paved the way for the development of Korea as a state.
01:13Yeah.
01:13Maybe that's a good omen.
01:15Who knows?
01:15Yeah.
01:16A good omen.
01:17And also, APEC has that kind of collaborative, friendly feel about it, because it's voluntary rather than compulsory.
01:26Yeah.
01:27And so, there is a kind of good environment here, if they want to find a way to create some order.
01:33I mean, our job in the end of the ICC, because of the size and the heft we have, is that when governments can't act, we actually work to create order where there is disorder and try and create certainty.
01:43So, we're pushing for the certainty issue, really, for business.
01:46Certainty around what, in particular?
01:47If it's not tariffs, what is the big thing that could be something that you can kind of, like, make the best decisions on?
01:53And the big issue for us is, what is the system emerging going to look like?
01:57Is it actually going to be relevant to business, or is it going to be some abstract kind of political play, or geopolitical play?
02:03I mean, one of the things that really puzzles us is, when we even look at the development of some of the most significant trading arrangements, like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, is that, you know, even though governments think they've done this amazing thing, because they haven't really engaged business, there's very little use of these kind of assets that are built by government.
02:22So, what we want to do is actually be part of the creation of what will be the new paradigm around the global system, trading system, because ultimately, for us, what we want is economic activity, because that's what drives opportunity and growth and jobs, frankly, for families.
02:38Obviously, many companies out there are talking about restructuring supply chains, you know, for resilience.
02:44How do you balance this push for friend-shoring, sort of block, you know, trade blocks, for example, without kind of this risk of fragmentation in the global economy?
02:54Well, having a common framework actually does eradicate a lot of the risk around fragmentation.
03:01But there is no doubt that what we're seeing at the moment is actually an erosion of the system, which is actually leading to, I think, quite a challenge.
03:10So, what we are feeling already is the development of a level of inefficiency.
03:15Frankly, I think whatever emerges will be less efficient than what we've got at the moment.
03:20It will actually be less, I think, supportive of making rapid decisions, because ultimately, people are going to have to start looking at moving their supply chains around.
03:31And that's really hard to do.
03:33And that's why there is a level of reticence at the moment by business.
03:38And what you're seeing is you're not seeing supply chains moving.
03:40What you're really seeing is people looking for new markets.
03:43And you're also seeing people delaying decisions about those big investment choices, about reordering of their supply chains, because it's just so hard to do.
03:52Yeah. And I'm looking at just kind of Nexperia.
03:55That's an example that comes to mind and what we've seen from the Dutch government, that you are seeing non-U.S., non-Chinese governments and companies really caught in the crosshairs of this trade war here right now.
04:08How do you even manage or even hedge a risk that risk now as a company?
04:11Well, I think this is the whole challenge of actually developing, I think, a forward-looking view about it.
04:19That's why the uncertainty is such a problem, people.
04:21What is that forward-looking?
04:23You look at the experience of Nexperia and the Dutch government stepping on the basis of what they said was governance concerns there.
04:30The interventions of governments without actually fully understanding how business operates can also be problematic.
04:39And what we're seeing at the moment is the world shifts from geopolitics to geoeconomics, is that governments have not shifted the way in which they actually develop their policies.
04:48Yeah, okay, national security is number one, but you can only have a strong security system when you have a strong economy.
04:54So even when you're making decisions around national security and economic, I suppose, interventions, you actually need to consult with business about what's really going on.
05:05Because how does the Nexperia supply chain actually work?
05:08Do they fully understand that?
05:10So I think there's really important issues about business now being much more integrated into decision-making, particularly on the frameworks to go forward, which is what I was trying to explain before.
05:20Whatever system emerges now, and that's what we're really interested in, it's got to be capable of solving real business problems, not political problems.
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