00:00Let's talk about what is going on in this housing market.
00:03There's a lot of different perspectives out there about why things still feel so stuck, and I'd love yours.
00:09Well, I heard him say there's no demand.
00:12Well, I think there's more demand than we've ever had.
00:15I just think people can't afford to buy a house today.
00:18And a stat came out, I think it was two months ago, that we were in the most unaffordable real estate market since 1984.
00:24So that's a very long time, and it was just changed.
00:27I think it was a week or two ago.
00:29So I believe we're now in the most unaffordable real estate market in recorded U.S. history.
00:34A lot of people anecdotally would agree with you, and I wonder what fixes this situation.
00:40Because, okay, you're seeing the Fed starting to cut rates again, 25 basis points at a time.
00:45Maybe we'll see rates come down, but even if they do, do you just have a wall of buyers waiting on the other side that will push prices higher?
00:52Okay, so I don't think prices are going to be pushed higher.
00:55I think that prices are going to go down a little bit.
00:58Not very much.
00:59And I think by 2027 or 2026, things will be more stable.
01:04But at the end of the day, this happened almost overnight when they took interest rates from 3% to 7%.
01:10And then a big problem that we're seeing today is anyone that bought a house from 2021 to 2024, they're kind of in big trouble.
01:16And here's why.
01:17You know, the date the rate, everyone that thought they were going to date the rate, they're now marrying the rate.
01:21Why is that?
01:22Well, if they bought a house for $300,000, they put 3% down, that's $9,000.
01:26What happens if the property value drops 10%?
01:29They can't sell their house.
01:30And even if the rate's 1% to 2%, they're stuck at 7% because the loan-to-value isn't there.
01:35Well, when it comes to property values dropping 10% in your hypothetical there, is that hypothetical or are we starting to see some of that?
01:43Oh, we're already seeing more than 10%.
01:44And if you look at markets like San Francisco, Austin, Texas, Phoenix, Arizona, I mean, if you look at properties in San Francisco right now, which, by the way, I think San Francisco is about to blow up when it comes to real estate, because properties are selling for what they were selling for sometimes 8 to 10 years ago.
01:59Interesting.
02:00So you mean blow up in a bad way?
02:01In a good way.
02:02Oh, in a good way.
02:03Yeah, because what I'm saying, San Francisco has been so depressed so long, it's about to explode.
02:08Now, who's in trouble?
02:10Texas, Florida, Arizona.
02:12Why?
02:13During the pandemic, during those years, the amount of demand into those markets exploded, and now the demand is no longer there.
02:20People are trying to get out of there.
02:21They're listing their homes.
02:22There's too much supply.
02:24People want to buy, but they can't buy for one single reason.
02:27They can't afford it.
02:28Yeah.
02:29Well, let's talk specifically about Hoboken, New Jersey, because I would love to buy a house, Tarek.
02:34I feel like I'm trapped in this endless cycle of renting, and there's different ways you can go about it.
02:40You can try to time the market, wait for rates to come down, but, I mean, what breaks the cycle here?
02:45Okay, well, the cycle's about to break, and I'm just going to say it.
02:49The real estate industry, I'm talking about real estate agents.
02:52I'm talking about loan officers, escrow officers, title officers.
02:56They're going to agree with me right now.
02:57The industry has been in a recession since the spring of 2022.
03:01We are going into fourth quarter of 2025.
03:05Spring 2026 is around the corner, which means our industry has been in a recession for almost four years.
03:10So if you were to ask me what's coming next, the opposite.
03:14I think real estate is going to flourish again.
03:16Do I think it's going to happen tomorrow?
03:18No.
03:19Do I think it's around the corner?
03:20Yes.
03:20So everyone that's been sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy, I believe that opportunity is going to be, honestly, November, December 2025 through early 2026.
03:30All right.
03:30Well, my lease is up at the end of May 2026, so I feel like January, February is when I need to start getting serious.
03:36But I want to go to this point in your notes that the best real estate buys today are new construction.
03:43That is really interesting because you think about the cost of raw materials, of course, with the U.S. trade posture right now, they've been going higher.
03:50It has nothing to do with that.
03:52It has nothing to do with the tariffs, has nothing to do with the cost of materials, has to do with the fact that a real estate builder is in business and their job is to move inventory.
04:01A homeowner is emotional, and they might not want to drop their prices.
04:05So what's happening is builders, they don't want to lower their prices because it hurts their appraisals, but maybe they'll give you free grass.
04:10Maybe they'll upgrade your tile.
04:12Maybe they'll give you free appliances.
04:13So we actually had, I think it was a 20 percent increase in new construction closes in August of 2025.
04:20And at the same time, August 2025, one out of every seven escrows were canceled.
04:26So there you have it.
04:28Before we let you go, you mentioned tracking the migratory patterns that we saw during the pandemic.
04:33You saw a lot of folks move out of traditional city centers, San Francisco being one of them, into the south, Texas, Florida.
04:40Maybe that's starting to reverse.
04:41What does that mean for where we're sitting right now when you think about the New York City metropolitan area?
04:47You know, I think I have a really good pulse on what's happening in this country when it comes to real estate.
04:52And the number one reason why is because I go on TikTok Live every single day, and I talk to at least 50 to 100,000 people about real estate on the East Coast, on the West Coast, all over the country.
05:05And I think the real estate market, I think we're at the end of this thing.
05:11I really, really do.
05:12Here's what I think.
05:13The Great Recession literally killed the American family.
05:16And the only reason we're in this situation is because the rates went from three to seven.
05:21And if things got nasty, do I think that they would drop the rates?
05:25I do.
05:25Because there's no way they would put us into a back-to-back Great Recession.
05:29Good.
05:29I like this.
05:30Good.
05:30Good.
05:30Good.
05:30Good.
05:30Good.
05:30Good.
05:31Great.
05:31So thanks to the Recession where you need this ratio.
05:33Good.
05:33Yeah.
05:33Here you go, well, the Emma Semino j productions.
05:53And remember this, the US is on the头 Microsoft model, so there it is.
Be the first to comment