The Points Guy's Memorial Day Weekend Travel Forecast

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00:00Gearing up for Memorial Day this weekend, with record travel expected for the holiday,

00:04AAA is projecting more than 45 million people to hit the road through Monday.

00:09Joining us now to discuss is Brian Kelly, founder of The Points Guy.

00:12And Brian, your survey shows that when we say hitting the road, it means literally staying

00:18within the country, within the borders of the U.S., as opposed to flying and leaving

00:22the country and going overseas.

00:24Yeah, I mean, certainly there are international travelers happening, but what we're seeing

00:28is a lot more people hitting the roads.

00:30Gas prices are down about 20 percent from last year, hovering around $3 a gallon.

00:35And, you know, I think a lot of people book their international trips in March and April.

00:39And with all the market fluctuations, I think a lot of people said, we still want to travel,

00:43but let's stay closer to home.

00:45So what does that mean in terms of people who want to pay through points as opposed to pay

00:50up in cash for their tickets?

00:52Have the airlines, the programs adjusted for that?

00:55Yeah, so interestingly, across the board, airfare this summer is down around 8 percent,

01:01which is pretty significant.

01:02And around 5 percent using your points.

01:05We actually work with a company called Points Path to look at how much airlines we're charging

01:09in both cash and points this summer versus last summer.

01:13So, you know, yesterday was the fourth busiest day ever for the TSA.

01:17But my hunch is that the airlines have had to discount.

01:19Well, actually, I know the airlines have had to discount to get people flying.

01:22So it's still going to be a busy travel season, but the airlines are not making the margin

01:26that they did the last several summers.

01:30So where are people going, Brian?

01:31I mean, you guys track this data.

01:33I mean, like, OK, if I want to stay here in the United States, I mean, I know it's still

01:36late for me to be making Memorial Day plans, but where's everybody going?

01:39Yeah, Orlando and Vegas are big hot spots.

01:43And internationally, you know, we actually Vancouver was a top five city this year.

01:47And that's where you can actually get a great deal because we've seen so many Canadians

01:51kind of boycott travel to the U.S.

01:53That is the one constant trend we're seeing.

01:56Airfare to Toronto, Vancouver is down 15 percent over last year.

02:02So for Americans who don't want to go to Europe but still want to have something a little bit

02:05different, we are seeing the trend of Canada.

02:08And also also Alaskan cruises are up big this year as well.

02:12Oh, wow.

02:13Yeah.

02:13Well, the Canada, Vancouver, I love Vancouver.

02:15That'd be great to go to.

02:16And now that maybe it's a little bit cheaper.

02:18What about inbound travel?

02:19Are you seeing a significant decrease in inbound travel from international travelers to the

02:25U.S.?

02:26Yeah.

02:26You know, the last time we chatted about a month ago, there were all these numbers that

02:30were quite alarming about the decrease in foreign travelers.

02:34And, you know, there was a lot of thought, could this be due to our immigration policies?

02:38But the biggest factor there was the Easter holiday falling in April this year versus March

02:43of last year.

02:44That was accounting for most of that European drop off.

02:47There was a small drop off in Europeans coming to the U.S., but that travel is still holding

02:51pretty strong.

02:52So, you know, strong U.S. demand.

02:55And I will say, though, that there is a little bit of a drop off.

02:58I'm seeing incredible award availability this summer for those still looking to go to Europe.

03:03If you haven't booked your Greece trip, London, the U.S. dollar is still really strong.

03:09So I was just looking.

03:11There's award availability on American Airlines.

03:14They actually have their brand new 787 suite.

03:16In August, you can find their base level award availability, which I haven't seen for years.

03:22American's also running a fair sale using a point sale as low as 5,000 points.

03:28And that's for all of August and September.

03:30So think about that, that one of the world's largest airlines is starting the busy summer

03:34travel season off with an award sale.

03:37Yeah, the fact that there's a sale and it's an award sale is kind of boggles the mind.

03:41Brian, I want to get your take on the disruption that we've seen with flights in and out of Newark

03:46Airport.

03:47They've, of course, suffered outages and they've had to reduce the number of flights.

03:51And it's really affected airlines like United.

03:52What does that mean for traffic at the other New York City metro areas?

03:57And has it increased ticket prices to fly into the New York City area because you have

04:01to avoid Newark?

04:02Yeah, you know, the Newark numbers are definitely down.

04:05We don't have the official numbers yet.

04:06And all my sources at the airline say, yeah, JFK and LaGuardia are up.

04:11But, you know, it's really a shifting of Philadelphia is also picking up quite a bit of that Newark traffic.

04:16But still quite a few people are still traveling in and out of Newark.

04:19You know, it's kind of a perfect storm happening there with their air traffic issues and also

04:24one of their runways down for scheduled maintenance.

04:26That runway should be back online in the middle of June.

04:29So that should ease things up.

04:31But Newark is for sure not out of the woods yet.

04:34And I would like to remind people it is still safe to fly in and out of Newark.

04:38But, you know, most people are avoiding it because of the potential for cancellations.

04:45So, you know, for people always asking me, should I cancel and rebook for thousands more?

04:49And have to connect out of LaGuardia instead?

04:52I would probably not.

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