Can India cut Russian oil amid mounting western pressure?

AWANI

The U.S. and its allies are urging India to scale back Russian oil imports. As one of Moscow’s biggest buyers, can India afford to shift its energy strategy? Dr. Rahul Mishra from the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University weighs in.

Transcript

00:00Now the US and its Western allies have been stepping up pressure on India to curb imports

00:05of Russian oil. As the world's second largest buyer of Russian energy after China, can India

00:12afford to scale back its dependence on Moscow? Dr. Raul Mishra from Jawaharlal Nehru University

00:19shares his insight.

00:22For India to stop, completely stop buying Russian oil is something that is not possible

00:29in the short run. It will take at least 18-24 months for India to substantially reduce importing

00:38Russian oil. So at the moment it is not a possibility. What is possible is that, and that's my second

00:44point, the possibility is that India tries to diversify its oil imports, energy imports, which

00:53means that a substantial outcome or a substantial promise has to be made by the American side.

01:02And India and America come to a settlement on their outstanding bilateral issues, whether

01:09it is tariffs or issues related to Indian skilled workers working in the US, or just the overall

01:18confusion between the top two top leaders. So I think that's very important. The third point is that

01:24even if India reduces the supply substantially, the prices, so the hypothetical scenario is that

01:33India reduces imports from Russia and starts buying American energy supplies. Even in that case, the prices

01:43have to be competitive. And I don't think at this moment there is any other country in the world,

01:48and Malaysia I think is also experiencing the same thing, there is no country in the world

01:53which can give a more competitive, lower price than what Russia is offering."

01:59To tighten pressure on Russia, Western nations have threatened punitive measures such as sanctions and

02:05tariffs against countries that continue to buy Russian oil. But Rahul notes this may be easier said than done,

02:12adding that India has historically been prepared to face such measures.

02:17I think this idea of the UK or European Union imposing sanctions on India or taking punitive

02:24measures is something that has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Because India and UK have already

02:31signed a trade agreement, which is almost comparable with an FTA. So having signed an FTA,

02:42UK has to walk out of the agreement to impose sanctions. Likewise, the EU has been working

02:47very hard to sign an FTA with India. That again is something that they have to, you know, discard

02:55if they want to impose sanctions. With a wider Europe, other countries of Europe, Scandinavian countries,

03:01India signed an agreement. So how do they move forward on that front is something that has to be

03:08considered and this is on the technical ground. The second, so far as the sanctions and restrictions

03:16and punitive measures are considered, I think three quarters of India's history, independent India's

03:24history, that is from 1950s to up to 2002, India was under sanctions by the Americans, by the Canadians,

03:32by almost all the Western countries. And it is only past 20 years that these sanctions were eased out

03:39and India sort of became a close partner with the US. So Indian experience is quite good in dealing

03:48dealing with these sanctions and imposing of so many restrictions.

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