00:00Now the US and its Western allies have been stepping up pressure on India to curb imports
00:05of Russian oil. As the world's second largest buyer of Russian energy after China, can India
00:12afford to scale back its dependence on Moscow? Dr. Raul Mishra from Jawaharlal Nehru University
00:19shares his insight.
00:22For India to stop, completely stop buying Russian oil is something that is not possible
00:29in the short run. It will take at least 18-24 months for India to substantially reduce importing
00:38Russian oil. So at the moment it is not a possibility. What is possible is that, and that's my second
00:44point, the possibility is that India tries to diversify its oil imports, energy imports, which
00:53means that a substantial outcome or a substantial promise has to be made by the American side.
01:02And India and America come to a settlement on their outstanding bilateral issues, whether
01:09it is tariffs or issues related to Indian skilled workers working in the US, or just the overall
01:18confusion between the top two top leaders. So I think that's very important. The third point is that
01:24even if India reduces the supply substantially, the prices, so the hypothetical scenario is that
01:33India reduces imports from Russia and starts buying American energy supplies. Even in that case, the prices
01:43have to be competitive. And I don't think at this moment there is any other country in the world,
01:48and Malaysia I think is also experiencing the same thing, there is no country in the world
01:53which can give a more competitive, lower price than what Russia is offering."
01:59To tighten pressure on Russia, Western nations have threatened punitive measures such as sanctions and
02:05tariffs against countries that continue to buy Russian oil. But Rahul notes this may be easier said than done,
02:12adding that India has historically been prepared to face such measures.
02:17I think this idea of the UK or European Union imposing sanctions on India or taking punitive
02:24measures is something that has to be taken with a pinch of salt. Because India and UK have already
02:31signed a trade agreement, which is almost comparable with an FTA. So having signed an FTA,
02:42UK has to walk out of the agreement to impose sanctions. Likewise, the EU has been working
02:47very hard to sign an FTA with India. That again is something that they have to, you know, discard
02:55if they want to impose sanctions. With a wider Europe, other countries of Europe, Scandinavian countries,
03:01India signed an agreement. So how do they move forward on that front is something that has to be
03:08considered and this is on the technical ground. The second, so far as the sanctions and restrictions
03:16and punitive measures are considered, I think three quarters of India's history, independent India's
03:24history, that is from 1950s to up to 2002, India was under sanctions by the Americans, by the Canadians,
03:32by almost all the Western countries. And it is only past 20 years that these sanctions were eased out
03:39and India sort of became a close partner with the US. So Indian experience is quite good in dealing
03:48dealing with these sanctions and imposing of so many restrictions.
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