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00:30Power is being lost to millions of homes.
00:34This is your worst nightmare come true.
00:40Communications are being knocked out.
00:43We could actually find ourselves unable to do things
00:46that we've been able to do for most of this century.
00:52And the military are being blinded.
00:55There could be a rather catastrophic effect
00:57on much of civilization as we know it.
01:02All these things have the same cause,
01:0593 million miles away.
01:08Violent eruptions on the surface of the sun.
01:27Stonehenge was built by people
01:34who were fascinated by the sun.
01:37It's thought to have enabled them to predict eclipses.
01:425,000 years later,
01:44scientists are making great advances
01:46in understanding the sun.
01:48Researchers like Nicky Fox of NASA
02:00use sophisticated technology
02:02to discover its secrets.
02:11Scientists now know that it produces heat
02:14like an enormous nuclear reactor.
02:16They know it has been in existence
02:19for 5 billion years
02:21and should last another 5 billion years.
02:27But what they are only beginning to understand
02:30is how massive solar eruptions
02:32can wreak havoc on Earth.
02:34Violent events
02:39can send bubbles of hot plasma
02:42steaming from the sun to the Earth
02:44and here it can cause chaos.
02:49We're very interested in what's going on
02:51inside and on the surface of the sun
02:53because that tells us about
02:55the likelihood of events
02:57that can wipe out
02:58our modern high-tech systems
03:00on which we've become very dependent.
03:01very few people were worried
03:06by sun storms
03:07until March the 13th, 1989.
03:11It was a quiet night on Earth
03:13but out in space
03:15a cloud of burning matter
03:17over a million miles long
03:18was heading straight for us.
03:24Very few people in Canada
03:25were awake.
03:35Night workers
03:36at the Quebec National Grid Control Centre
03:39had no idea what was in store.
03:43At quarter to three in the morning
03:44their monitors registered
03:46an enormous disturbance
03:47in their power system.
03:49Yes, sir, OK.
03:51I count down 200 megawatts right now.
03:57Power cables all over the region
03:59were overwhelmed by excess current.
04:04The engineers tried to reduce the load
04:06but the surges kept coming.
04:10In a matter of minutes
04:11they lost control of the whole system.
04:15Power plants over the half a million
04:17square miles of Quebec
04:18were swamped by excess current.
04:26Moments later
04:27the whole grid blew.
04:30There were about six of us
04:32and we stepped out onto the patio
04:34which was snow-filled completely
04:35and we pushed the snow off the patio door
04:38and we looked at the city
04:39and already parts of the city
04:41were going out
04:42and we could see different sectors
04:44just switching off
04:46in different areas.
04:47All of a sudden
04:48everything
04:49just blacked out.
04:55Power was lost to eight million homes.
05:01But strangely
05:02some lights
05:03still shone.
05:05In my bedroom
05:06there was this reading light
05:07that was still on.
05:09I was a bit amazed
05:10so I played with the switches
05:12and everything was dead
05:14except this one light
05:15that was emitting
05:16a yellowish light.
05:19And it seemed to me
05:21a bit like a ghost
05:22that was in the room
05:24sleeping with me.
05:28Engineers worked around the clock
05:30to replace the burnt out components
05:32and restore power.
05:33Some parts of Quebec
05:39went without electricity
05:41for as much as eight days
05:42forcing tens of thousands of people
05:44to live without light or heating.
05:52In 1994
05:54another cloud of burning gas
05:56approached Earth.
05:59This time
06:00it was engineers
06:01at Telesat
06:02a satellite company
06:03in Ottawa
06:04who were in for a surprise.
06:06I was in a meeting
06:07that infamous day
06:08with the equipment manufacturer
06:10when I noticed
06:12through the glass screen
06:14my boss
06:16frantically waving outside
06:17the room
06:18for me to
06:19come and join him.
06:20one of their key satellites
06:26E-1
06:27suddenly malfunctioned.
06:32All over Canada
06:33and America
06:34TV pictures were lost.
06:37It wasn't pointing
06:38at the Earth anymore
06:39it had spun up
06:40or tumbled out of control
06:41it wasn't looking down
06:42at the Earth
06:43and we couldn't carry
06:44communications traffic.
06:46Without this satellite
06:48air traffic control
06:49was disrupted
06:50and many planes
06:51had to be grounded.
06:53The satellite
06:54also carried
06:55millions of phone calls.
06:57Once it was knocked out
06:58thousands of people
06:59in northern Canada
07:00were cut off.
07:01There's hundreds
07:03of communities
07:03all across
07:04the northern
07:05Arctic
07:07northern Quebec
07:08northern Ontario
07:09and all through
07:10the northwest territories
07:11that were
07:12immediately isolated
07:14from the rest of the world.
07:15If I was in one
07:16of these communities
07:17I'd feel
07:17a sense of urgency
07:19that
07:20geez
07:20what if something
07:21goes wrong here?
07:22What if there's
07:22a medical emergency?
07:24It took five
07:26nail-biting hours
07:27for engineers
07:27to recover the satellite.
07:29Okay, thanks much.
07:33So you have it, Paul.
07:34Okay.
07:35We're in auto track.
07:36You're all set.
07:37Relief.
07:38Great relief
07:39that, phew,
07:40that was close.
07:41Well, a combination
07:41of elated and tired
07:42because it was
07:43a very long exercise.
07:45With the satellite
07:46back online
07:46the engineers
07:47began to relax.
07:50But the sun storm
07:51was not over
07:52and it knocked out
07:53another key satellite
07:55E-2.
07:55I quickly opened
07:58a can of beans
07:59and sat down
08:00in front of the
08:01television set
08:03to do a little
08:04channel surfing
08:05and I noticed
08:06that the sports network
08:08had gone to noise.
08:10I popped down
08:11to the music station
08:12it was gone to noise.
08:14I checked the local
08:15TV station
08:16it was gone to noise.
08:17At that point
08:18I got a beep
08:20in my phone
08:20call waiting.
08:21It was my boss
08:22saying we have
08:23an E-2 problem.
08:24Satellite E-2
08:25was even more
08:26crucial than E-1.
08:28Your worst nightmare
08:29so all we go back
08:30into the control room
08:31sit down
08:32look at the data
08:33what we saw
08:34was precisely
08:34the same thing
08:35that we'd seen
08:36the first time.
08:37Same failure.
08:39Only this time
08:40the failure
08:40was far worse.
08:42The satellite
08:42had spun out
08:43of control
08:44and it took
08:45engineers five months
08:46before they managed
08:47to recover it.
08:48One, twenty-five,
08:49twelve.
08:51Loss of either satellite
08:53would have cost
08:54the company
08:54over a hundred
08:55million dollars.
08:58I think it would
08:59have meant bankruptcy
09:00for the company.
09:01Our shareholders
09:01just couldn't afford
09:02to take that much
09:03of a loss.
09:10Power workers
09:11and satellite engineers
09:13were uncertain
09:14what had caused
09:15these sudden failures.
09:16But dotted around
09:19the world
09:20there are six main
09:21solar observatories
09:22which together
09:23monitor the sun
09:24twenty-four hours a day.
09:28And scientists
09:29at these observatories
09:30had the answer.
09:38Two or three days
09:39before each event
09:40they saw violent
09:42disturbances
09:43on the surface
09:44of the sun.
09:46What you see
09:57is a dark structure
09:59that you call
09:59a filament
10:00will appear
10:01to be rising
10:01but if it's rising
10:03towards you
10:04you largely see
10:04it gets dim
10:05and then it will
10:06suddenly simply
10:07disappear from sight.
10:08So you know
10:09that something
10:09has happened
10:10something has erupted.
10:12But what is going
10:13on in the sun
10:13to cause these eruptions?
10:16The sun is made up
10:18mostly of hydrogen.
10:20Nuclear fusion
10:20keeps its surface
10:21at two million
10:22degrees centigrade.
10:24At this temperature
10:24the hydrogen molecules
10:26are ripped apart
10:27producing positively
10:28charged protons
10:29and negatively charged
10:31electrons.
10:32And these charged
10:33particles produce
10:34powerful magnetic fields.
10:36You can get
10:38little loops
10:39of magnetic field
10:40that kind of
10:40poke out the sun
10:41rather like
10:42an elastic band.
10:44When two loops
10:45of gas come together
10:47they merge
10:48producing enormous
10:49explosions
10:49some big enough
10:51to overcome
10:52the sun's
10:52powerful gravitational pull.
10:59These are called
11:00coronal mass ejections.
11:06on average
11:11about once
11:13or twice a day
11:13the sun will
11:15throw out
11:16a ball
11:17of extra
11:18dense material
11:19into planetary
11:21space.
11:22These are very
11:23major events.
11:25And from time
11:25to time
11:26a particularly
11:27huge cloud
11:28of solar matter
11:29heads towards
11:29Earth.
11:31This material
11:32is plasma.
11:34It consists
11:35of highly
11:35energetic particles
11:37bound by
11:37a magnetic field
11:38and it contains
11:41enough energy
11:41to boil
11:42the Mediterranean
11:43sea dry.
11:45As it passes
11:46through space
11:47at 2 million
11:48miles an hour
11:49it rapidly
11:49expands.
11:53When it nears
11:54Earth's atmosphere
11:55it buffets
11:56Earth's magnetic field.
12:00When it reaches
12:01the Earth
12:02it's kind of
12:02like a cosmic
12:04boxing glove.
12:05smacking the
12:06Earth's magnetic field
12:07and causing
12:08all sorts of
12:08fluctuations.
12:11This process
12:12generates huge
12:14amounts of
12:14electricity on
12:15Earth.
12:16In 1989
12:18Canada was
12:19worst hit
12:20largely because
12:21the ground
12:21is granite
12:22a non-conducting
12:23rock.
12:24Since the current
12:24couldn't be
12:25absorbed by the
12:25ground
12:26it was discharged
12:27into the power
12:28system.
12:28The power
12:30grid is not
12:31equipped to
12:31handle this
12:32kind of
12:33invasion
12:33so the
12:34equipment just
12:34blows
12:35and creates
12:36this massive
12:37blackout.
12:38Once the
12:39power system
12:39was wiped out
12:40the sun storm
12:41continued to
12:42generate
12:42electricity
12:43causing
12:44lights to
12:45flicker.
12:45in 1994
12:50it was
12:51satellites that
12:52took the
12:52brunt of
12:53the huge
12:53current.
12:58The most
12:59likely cause of
13:00the failure is
13:00what we call
13:01ESD or
13:02electrostatic
13:02discharge or a
13:04charge built up
13:05on the
13:05spacecraft and
13:06finally let go
13:07and destroyed the
13:08chip and that
13:09charge would come
13:10from electrons that
13:11come off of the
13:12sun.
13:12Sunstorms are as
13:15old as the sun
13:16itself but today
13:18we urgently need
13:19to know more
13:19about them because
13:21of the devastating
13:22effect they can
13:22have on our
13:23technology.
13:27At NASA,
13:29Nikki Fox is a
13:30leading sunstorm
13:31researcher.
13:32She joined the
13:33space agency in
13:341995 after finishing
13:36her PhD on the
13:37subject at
13:38Imperial College
13:38London.
13:39To get a
13:42clear picture of
13:43how sunstorms
13:44affect Earth,
13:45she became
13:46involved in an
13:47international project
13:48called Cluster.
13:51Four satellites
13:52would give a
13:53three-dimensional
13:53view of a
13:54sunstorm as it
13:55engulfed Earth.
13:58The spacing
14:00between them
14:00would vary as
14:02they moved
14:02around and
14:03that would for
14:03the first time
14:04give us a real
14:05sort of 3D
14:06measurement of
14:07the various
14:07different regions
14:08around the Earth.
14:10The big hope
14:10was that Cluster
14:11would help us
14:12predict when
14:13sunstorms would
14:14wipe out our
14:14satellites and
14:15power systems.
14:17The reason we
14:17need to do that
14:18research is so
14:19that we can
14:20identify which
14:22disturbances coming
14:23out of the sun
14:24are the dangerous
14:25ones and which
14:26are going to pass
14:26by without causing
14:28such major effects.
14:32But the most
14:33direct way to see
14:34the effects of
14:35sunstorms is near
14:36the Earth's poles.
14:43Nikki Fox and
14:44her colleague
14:45Mike Lockwood
14:46have spent years
14:47studying the
14:48aurora borealis
14:49or northern lights.
14:57A constant stream
14:59of particles from
15:00the sun, the
15:01solar wind, causes
15:02faint aurora for
15:03most of the year.
15:04But every few
15:06months, these
15:07aurora become
15:08intense.
15:09These are the
15:10result of
15:11sunstorms.
15:13The easiest way
15:14for us to know
15:15that a solar
15:16event has actually
15:17reached us is to
15:18look for the
15:18beginning of very
15:19intense auroral
15:20activity.
15:23There's a certain
15:24ghostly, silent
15:25beauty about them.
15:26auroras are produced
15:37when charged particles
15:39from the sun enter the
15:41Earth's atmosphere at the
15:43night of the sun.
15:44It's completely spellbinding.
15:46auroras are produced when
15:52charged particles from the
15:53sun enter the Earth's
15:55atmosphere at the north or
15:56south poles, where the
15:58Earth's magnetic field
15:59offers the least
16:00resistance.
16:02These high-energy
16:03particles strike molecules
16:05in the air, making them
16:06glow.
16:08Sunstorms consist of
16:10particularly energetic
16:11particles, producing a
16:13predominantly green light.
16:17The different colors will
16:18actually act almost like a
16:20fingerprint test.
16:21If you see a lot of green,
16:22you're seeing a certain
16:23excited state of oxygen.
16:26If you see a lot of red,
16:27you're seeing a different
16:28excited state of oxygen.
16:32When we get a big
16:33enhancement of the green
16:35light, we know that there
16:36are many more energetic
16:38particles around, and those
16:40are the particles that
16:41generate the large
16:42currents and things
16:43that can cause so much
16:44disruption.
16:46The intensity of green
16:47aurora is a guide to how
16:49much damage sunstorms might
16:51do to satellites, but a
16:53much more accurate gauge
16:54would soon be available.
16:59The finishing touches were
17:00being made to the last of
17:02the components for the
17:03cluster satellites.
17:07The project had taken 10
17:08years and cost 200 million
17:10pounds.
17:13But soon scientists would have
17:14a clear picture of exactly how
17:16sunstorms affect Earth and how
17:19they produce the huge amounts
17:20of electricity that wipe out
17:22satellites and bring down power
17:24systems.
17:29The cluster satellites were
17:31finally assembled in France.
17:32The 2,000 scientists involved in the project
17:36were looking forward to the launch
17:38aboard a French Ariane rocket from
17:40Guyana, South America.
17:41All around the world, scientists gathered to watch the launch.
17:54The whole community globally was glued to a screen or of some kind to see the launch.
18:01As the rocket itself lifted up, I think everybody was just, it was just a whole bag of mixed emotions.
18:10There was relief that it was finally on the rocket and going up.
18:12There was excitement about the type of science it was going to show us.
18:16But their hopes were premature.
18:18Everybody's dreams just rained down in ruins from the skies.
18:35One could not believe that this work had gone this way.
18:40A lot of people cried, people were crying around the room.
18:45And there was a touch of anger.
18:46This should not have happened to the community of scientists that were going to, so looking
18:51forward to the data to come back.
18:53They'd worked too hard.
18:54It just was not fair.
18:55It just was not fair.
18:56It just wasn't right.
18:57For weeks, salvage teams searched for the wreckage of the rocket in the Guyana swamps.
19:04An investigation pinned the disaster on the rocket's computer software.
19:08The Ariane steering controls had been using a program designed for an earlier type of rocket.
19:14To add to the scientists' grief, the cluster satellites were not insured.
19:22While solar physicists mourned the loss of cluster,
19:25scientists in other fields were finding that sunstorms could have even wider effects
19:30on Earth and its inhabitants than anyone had ever suspected.
19:45The causes of extreme changes in the weather are often a mystery to meteorologists.
19:50At the Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland, observations using antique equipment show that
20:00this may be because a crucial factor has long been overlooked, the effect that sunstorms
20:06have on the climate.
20:07Astronomer John Butler works with a 19th-century telescope.
20:28A clockwork mechanism tracks the sun throughout the day.
20:32It steers the telescope from its easterly position in the morning
20:38to a westerly position as the sun is setting.
20:55Protective filters prevent the sun doing damage to the observer's eye.
20:59With this simple technology, generations of astronomers have kept detailed records of sunspots,
21:07patches which appear on the surface of the sun.
21:10Sunspots are important because plasma clouds emerge close to them,
21:14and the more sunspots, the more sunstorms.
21:17Like his predecessors, Butler keeps daily records of the temperature.
21:34When he joined the observatory, he was curious to know more of its history,
21:39and investigated its underground passageways.
21:41Deep in the vaults, he discovered some forgotten books.
21:54Books containing climatic records going back over 200 years.
21:58We decided that it was time these should all be compiled and studied.
22:06So we made a catalogue of these early documents.
22:10And it was at that stage we realised that we had early meteorological material
22:14stretching right back until the 18th century.
22:20Observations which have been made on a daily basis,
22:22from about 1795 until the present.
22:25This type of material, one could think of as a rosetta stone of climate change.
22:31In recent years, it's been assumed that global warming
22:34is due to greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.
22:38But the observatory records show that this wasn't the full story.
22:43Butler plotted the length of sunspot cycles,
22:46an indicator of the number of sunstorms, in blue,
22:49alongside the temperature on Earth, in red.
22:52The two lines followed each other very closely.
22:59For John Butler, there was only one conclusion.
23:03The changes in the sun are one of the principal causes
23:06of the change in temperature of the Earth in recent decades.
23:10And this appears to be due to sunstorms.
23:13But why should more sunstorms increase the temperature on Earth?
23:20Here, in Colorado, scientists think they have the answer.
23:25And it seems to lie in the clouds.
23:29By the time sunstorms reach Earth,
23:31they produce little heat directly,
23:33but still carry enormous electric currents.
23:35And it's thought that these currents affect the water droplets in the clouds.
23:40The electrical currents charge up the droplets,
23:43especially at the tops of clouds,
23:44where they are very cold,
23:46and a very small amount of electric charge
23:48has the capability of causing them to freeze.
23:51The frozen droplets attract more ice, becoming heavier.
23:54Too heavy, in fact, to be supported by the cloud.
23:57This leads to rain, often accompanied by electric storms.
24:08After a huge rainstorm, clouds are emptied,
24:11allowing the sun to heat the Earth directly.
24:14And this is believed to cause a rise in temperature.
24:19Weather researchers have just been told
24:21that intense aurora have been seen at the North Pole.
24:24Earth is being hit by a sunstorm.
24:27This is a perfect opportunity to test the clouds
24:30to see if they're being charged up.
24:35At the National Center for Atmospheric Research,
24:39they have a plane dedicated to weather investigations.
24:42The pilots head straight for the tops of the clouds.
24:45Rain droplets from the clouds are collected by tubes
25:05mounted on top of the plane.
25:07These droplets are tested for their amount of charge,
25:10and the results come through in seconds.
25:14The higher the reading,
25:15the more the drops have been charged up by the sunstorm.
25:18245, it's going up a bit, 250, 260, 282.
25:28Today's readings show a high electrical charge,
25:31leading to more ice.
25:33If you change the amount of ice that's present at the top of clouds,
25:37this can produce quite large consequences for weather and climate.
25:40If sunstorms can charge up droplets in clouds,
25:44what effect could they have on people?
25:49Astronauts can receive high doses of dangerous charged particles
25:53if caught in sunstorms, particularly over the Earth's poles.
25:56I personally wouldn't be terribly happy about being in a spacecraft
26:04that flew through the auroral regions on a regular basis.
26:10Astronauts are most exposed during spacewalks.
26:13If they're outside, they have almost zero shielding,
26:16and the energetic particles that are flying around
26:19are similar to those that you would encounter
26:21if you were dealing with radioactive materials,
26:24and the biological consequences are the same.
26:26Russian cosmonauts taking spacewalks during sunstorms
26:32have later developed cancer,
26:34but it's still far from clear whether sunstorms are to blame.
26:40Nearer to Earth, passengers and crew aboard high-flying aircraft
26:44like Concorde could also be at risk from sunstorms.
26:49Since its launch, Concorde has carried a detector
26:52which responds to high-energy particles from the sun.
26:55If the alarm goes off, the plane has to descend to lower altitudes.
27:01There is considerable concern among the flight attendants and pilots union
27:06about particularly those who fly at high latitude to that exposure.
27:11You usually find that the airline companies themselves will switch around the crews on a much more regular basis
27:18when we have particularly violent events.
27:24Doctors are now starting to ask whether sunstorms could affect people on the ground.
27:28One study in Hungary showed that the number of accidents increased during sunstorms.
27:36And an Israeli cardiologist found that during sunstorms many more patients died from the most common form of heart attack,
27:46myocardial infarction.
27:48Our data showed that at the periods of high solar activity,
27:53we have more deaths from myocardial infarction, especially in the older population.
28:00It's too early to know whether these findings are merely statistical freaks,
28:06or whether they could open up whole new areas of medicine.
28:17But we shall soon have plenty of opportunity for further study.
28:22Solar physicists are predicting that the frequency of sunstorms is about to increase.
28:27Within the next few years, we should see a large increase in the number of sunspots,
28:35a large increase in all of these things we call solar activity,
28:39and then we expect a very abrupt increase in the number of sunstorms.
28:46Sunstorms happen most often when there's turbulence on the surface of the sun,
28:50and this turbulence is largely due to the unusual way the sun rotates.
28:54The sun is not a solid body.
29:00It's a ball of gas, and it doesn't rotate as one single sphere.
29:05It moves faster, in fact, at the equator in the middle than it does at the poles.
29:11This difference in the speed of rotation causes the sun's magnetic field to tighten up,
29:17a process which is just starting to happen.
29:19If you imagine just twisting up a long piece of string, round and round and round,
29:28you can see that the configuration is going to become very, very confused very quickly.
29:35At some point in this ongoing cycle, the magnetic field becomes so unstable it snaps.
29:41When that happens, that makes it much more likely for explosive events to take place on the sun
29:49that throw all sorts of energy and material matter out into space.
29:55And the more that's thrown out into space, the more that hits Earth.
29:59The hope is that in the future, scientists will be able to say with confidence
30:13when a sunstorm is going to hit Earth.
30:16Blackouts could be prevented by reducing the current in the grid.
30:20Satellites could be saved by switching off their electronics.
30:23And up to the minute space weather forecasts could be beamed to our homes.
30:27While all you folks are getting ready for football season,
30:32we have a sunstorm warning from the Space Weather Center.
30:36In this region of the sun, a plasma cloud is broken through the surface of the star
30:40and is heading Earthward.
30:42It will be affecting our northern hemisphere on Thursday.
30:45Here's how the storm is predicted to strike the Earth's magnetic field.
30:49Satellites in this region will be facing the full blast from the storm,
30:53so TV reception could be affected.
30:55Bad news for you Broncos fans.
30:57On the bright side, we'll see dramatic displays of the northern lights
31:01as far south as New York and London.
31:06Central to the success of space weather forecasting
31:09is a new satellite called SOHO.
31:12It will stare at the sun 24 hours a day.
31:15To do this, it has to be a million miles out in space
31:18at a location where the sun's and Earth's gravitational fields cancel each other out.
31:30SOHO is enormously important to us
31:32in that the researchers will better understand solar physics.
31:35We can warn people that something is coming towards them,
31:38but also we can predict the speeds with which this is leaving the sun,
31:43and possibly giving an idea of when it will actually reach the Earth.
31:48Five, four, three, two, one, ignition.
31:53And liftoff of SOHO on an international mission of solar physics.
32:09This launch went without a hitch.
32:11The data from SOHO was needed more than ever,
32:18and it wasn't just for space weather forecasters,
32:21for there was growing concern that sunstorms could increase the risk of war.
32:34Deep inside the Cheyenne Mountain in Colorado
32:37is where the American military monitor space.
32:41The NORAD facility is surrounded by 1,800 feet of granite rock on all sides.
32:52To enter it, one has to pass through one of the strongest doors ever constructed.
32:57It is 20 feet wide and over 4 feet thick.
33:11This fortress was designed to withstand a nuclear attack from the Russians.
33:16But with the end of the Cold War,
33:18the major threat to world security is no longer the Russians.
33:22It's the sun.
33:23Major Boyette is in charge of a team of space watchers.
33:39Yes, sir.
33:39What's the status of the sensor network?
33:41Just talking to them.
33:42They're going to be green for the next 24 hours.
33:44Sir, we've got no conjunctions on the mirror.
33:46Okay, thanks.
33:46Each group's job is to track 8,000 objects in orbit around the Earth.
33:54Some of the objects are satellites,
33:56but many are pieces of debris left by rockets.
33:59It is essential for the military to know the position of all these objects at all times.
34:04Otherwise, if one of them falls to Earth,
34:07there's the danger it could be mistaken for a nuclear missile.
34:10Any time you have an object that's in space and it's coming back in,
34:15it has a tendency to look like an intercontinental ballistic missile reentry vehicle.
34:20And so the primary function of U.S. Space Command's Space Control Center here
34:24is to ensure that any object that is coming in,
34:27that the appropriate authorities are notified,
34:29and that ensures that inadvertently World War III is not started.
34:34During sunstorms, the Earth's atmosphere expands.
34:38This increases the drag on objects in space,
34:41slowing them down and changing their orbit.
34:45When you have a real bad sunstorm,
34:47we start losing track of the satellites
34:49because they're not where they should be
34:51when we think they're going to be there.
34:53During these periods, the military goes on the alert.
34:5680-25 giving us a 3B flare.
34:59Also, the X-rays are rising.
35:01Yes, sir.
35:04During the last serious one that I can recall,
35:07it took approximately 96 hours for us to reacquire our satellites
35:12and figure out exactly where they were
35:14so that we can continue to track them the way we do here.
35:19Nearby, at the University of Colorado,
35:22Dan Baker studies how sunstorms can damage satellites.
35:26He's worried they may affect military operations.
35:30Imagine, if you will, that you're tracking these 8,000
35:34and you lose track of them,
35:35then another object comes into field of view.
35:39You don't know whether it's one of the existing ones
35:41or some new object.
35:42It may be a threat.
35:44The military's official line
35:45is that losing track of objects in space
35:48is not a major threat.
35:49It's of no concern, really, to the United States,
35:54and it shouldn't be to Russia.
35:56And really, all we've lost is the capability
35:59to track those satellites that are on orbit
36:01for a very short period of time.
36:03The statement that there's no cause for concern
36:05is really not a very realistic statement.
36:08In other words, the whole point of tracking
36:11all of these objects and knowing where everything is
36:14is to be able to say with confidence
36:16that we know what's there,
36:19and if there's a change, we'll be able to deal with it.
36:23Most worrying is the possibility
36:25that a nuclear strike could be timed
36:27to correspond with a sunstorm
36:29when the military's sights are down.
36:32If a country is intent on military mischief
36:35and they're sophisticated enough to understand
36:38that solar disturbances could have a detrimental effect
36:42on our knowledge of what's going on in space,
36:45then indeed the worst-case scenario
36:47would be that they would choose that time
36:49in order to launch some kind of a strike
36:52or some kind of a military action,
36:55and that, of course,
36:56could be very, very difficult to deal with.
37:05If anything could help the military, SOHO could.
37:19Scientists watched the satellite move into position.
37:29They eagerly awaited the data,
37:31and SOHO did not let them down.
37:37It sent back clear images of the sun's corona,
37:40the outer area where sunstorms emerge.
37:47The actual light from the centre is so bright
37:50that you can't see anything else.
37:52It's like looking into a light bulb.
37:54You can't see the rest of the room
37:55if you're just looking straight at the light bulb.
37:56So what we do is we put a disc over the sun,
38:01very, very similar to an eclipse
38:03when the moon passes in front of the sun,
38:05and you can actually get to see
38:06all the hazy area around it.
38:10The first pictures from the SOHO camera
38:12showed a comet grazing the sun
38:14and solar matter spewing out into the universe.
38:21Although they're very spectacular to watch
38:26in terms of worrying about the disturbances here
38:30at the Earth, they're not a problem
38:32because they're going to miss the Earth.
38:35SOHO showed that the active regions on the sun
38:38were facing out into the universe,
38:40away from the Earth.
38:45For the time being, we could relax.
38:47We see sun storms very often on the sun
38:51and not everyone is going to hit the Earth.
38:53If you imagine you've got a huge gun sight
38:56and you've got a very, very big field of view
38:58that you can sweep this target through
39:00and you've got a tiny little target,
39:02that's the Earth.
39:03So to actually hit one,
39:04you have to be aiming straight for it.
39:10And then on April the 6th, 1997,
39:14much to everyone's surprise,
39:15the sun fired in the direction of Earth.
39:26We saw a huge ejection from the sun
39:30and it formed the sort of halo
39:32that meant that it was coming straight at us.
39:35You can see the circle getting bigger and bigger
39:38and this is the sun storm coming towards us.
39:41Another camera on SOHO
39:51showed what was happening
39:53on the surface of the sun itself.
39:56We also saw a bubbling up
39:59that looks like water boiling
40:00and then a wave,
40:02just like a blast wave,
40:03which just went boom
40:04across the whole surface of the sun.
40:06Most scientists who saw the eruption
40:10were convinced we would be in
40:12for large disturbances when it hit Earth.
40:16The scientific community put itself on
40:18an alert warning to say
40:20this may cause major effects.
40:23In Boulder, Colorado,
40:24at the Space Environment Center,
40:26space weather forecaster Ernie Hildner
40:29saw the data coming in.
40:32His team's job
40:33was to distribute up-to-the-minute reports
40:35on the status of the sun storm
40:37to power companies,
40:39satellite operators and others
40:40so they could prepare
40:42for the sun's onslaught.
40:43Do you see any reason
40:43to change the forecast for tomorrow?
40:45What we ought to be telling people?
40:46But Ernie Hildner
40:47was cautious of the SOHO data
40:49and chose not to issue an alert.
40:52I think I agree with that.
40:53I don't see any reason to change.
40:55The military were monitoring events
41:02independently
41:03and they weren't taking any chances.
41:06They prepared themselves
41:07for a period of blindness.
41:09Disseminate the alert product right now.
41:11Yes, sir.
41:1355th Space Weather Squadron.
41:15Captain Groves?
41:16That's right.
41:17You can expect effects
41:18on your communication
41:18both ground-based and satellite.
41:21Military leaders in the field
41:22could expect interference
41:23in radio communication.
41:26Satellites could be disabled.
41:29Navigation in the air
41:30could be affected.
41:34And contact with ships
41:35and submarines might be lost.
41:42NASA scientists contacted the media.
41:45Hello and welcome, everyone.
41:47I'm Natalie Allen.
41:48And I'm Lyndon Soles.
41:49Thanks for joining us
41:49here at CNN World Headquarters.
41:51Sounds like something
41:52out of a science fiction movie.
41:54A huge bubble of gases
41:55stronger than you could imagine
41:57headed toward Earth
41:58at nearly 2 million miles per hour.
42:01But it is very real.
42:08Many people suspected the worst
42:10and called for advice.
42:11How can I help?
42:15All right.
42:16Bye-bye.
42:16We had a hospital administrator
42:19call up and say,
42:21of course we will turn off
42:22all our computers,
42:23including the medical monitoring computers
42:26at the time the storm is supposed to hit.
42:28We had things like,
42:30will my plants die?
42:32Should I switch off my computer
42:33for the next two days?
42:35Should I bring my pets inside?
42:37Kennedy Airport people called up
42:39and said,
42:39should we keep 747s on the ground
42:42during the time
42:43that the storm is predicted to hit?
42:46NASA scientists waited anxiously
42:48for the sun storm to reach Earth.
42:50You find yourself waking up
42:52at 3 in the morning
42:53just to see if it's arrived
42:55or if you can see any signs.
42:58It became one of these,
43:00I don't go to sleep
43:02in case I miss it.
43:04But after several days of waiting,
43:07nothing.
43:09No power systems had been wiped out,
43:11no satellites had been hit.
43:12The biggest sun storm of all time
43:18turned out to be a resounding non-event.
43:30Ernie Hildner had been right
43:31to be cautious on this occasion,
43:33but he wasn't gloating.
43:35Almost two-thirds of the time
43:36his team get the sun storm forecast wrong.
43:39Often, alerts are issued
43:43and large storms do not occur
43:46and vice versa.
43:47So I think as a prediction,
43:49it's something that's in its infancy.
43:52If the Weather Service
43:53did predictions of that quality,
43:54we might be quite unhappy with it.
44:00We don't totally understand
44:02the sun-interplanetary-Earth connection.
44:06We have a lot of work to do
44:08scientifically before we can fully predict
44:10with great accuracy
44:11when and how severely
44:13the effects on the sun
44:14will reach the Earth
44:15and cause problems.
44:24Nikki Foxx is on her way
44:25to the Space Environment Center.
44:28It's her job to make sure
44:29that researchers and forecasters
44:31have all the information they need.
44:33Since so many of the sun storm forecasts
44:38have been wrong,
44:40she's keen to find out
44:41how NASA could be of more help.
44:49By linking very closely
44:51with the Space Environment Center,
44:53we can provide them with observations
44:55which will actually help them
44:56make their predictions
44:57and then finally their alerts
44:59for the effects on the Earth.
45:04It is so difficult to see
45:06what is actually happening
45:08with a sun storm
45:09as it leaves the sun
45:10and we suffered
45:11from a lack of information.
45:13What's the most important thing
45:14that we could give to you
45:16that would make your predictions
45:18of future solar events easier?
45:19I wish we could get
45:21the magnetic polarity
45:22in a sun storm
45:24that is coming up to the Earth.
45:25Not knowing the magnetic polarity
45:28of the plasma cloud
45:29is why there has been
45:31so much confusion
45:32over whether a sun storm
45:33would actually hit Earth.
45:36When these sun storms
45:38are coming towards the Earth,
45:39we still don't know fully
45:41what the effects are going to be
45:42until we know
45:43the magnetic field orientation
45:45within the plasma cloud.
45:48Both the plasma cloud
45:49and the Earth
45:50have magnetic fields.
45:53If the two fields
45:54are in the opposite direction,
45:56they combine
45:57and particles flood
45:58into Earth's atmosphere.
46:06But if the fields
46:08are in the same direction,
46:09the cloud is rebuffed
46:10and passes harmlessly
46:11on its way.
46:13We have, to this day,
46:16no way to infer
46:18the direction
46:18of the magnetic field
46:19of the material
46:20that's coming up
46:21to the Earth
46:21and consequently,
46:23whether it's going
46:23to be a mere bump
46:25or whether it's going
46:26to set off
46:27a severe storm.
46:30But a launch
46:31in August 1997
46:33looks set
46:34to change all this.
46:35It placed another
46:36new satellite
46:37called ACE
46:38into the zero-gravity position
46:40between Earth and Sun.
46:42ACE carries a magnetometer,
46:44which measures
46:44the direction
46:45of the magnetic field
46:46on an approaching
46:47plasma cloud.
46:48And how much
46:52do you think
46:52ACE will help us?
46:54Oh, we have been
46:55advertising that
46:57ACE will give us
46:57almost 100% accurate
47:00alerts and warnings
47:01one hour in advance.
47:03Customers who are
47:03affected by
47:04geomagnetic storms
47:05will very much
47:06appreciate having
47:07one hour notice.
47:10The ACE satellite
47:11is now up and running
47:12and will soon
47:14be put to the test.
47:16Sunwatchers
47:16all over the world
47:17have noticed
47:18that the number
47:18of sunspots
47:19is now starting
47:20to increase.
47:22This is a clear sign
47:23that the sun
47:23is becoming
47:24more active.
47:26The sun's cycle
47:27lasts about 11 years
47:29and its previous peak
47:31was 1989.
47:33Its next peak
47:34is predicted
47:35to coincide
47:36with the millennium.
47:38We have just
47:39gone through
47:40the period
47:40of the sunspot minimum
47:42and we are approaching
47:44in about the year 2000
47:46the sunspot activity
47:48maximum.
47:49At that time
47:50we expect to have
47:50many more sunstorms
47:52occurring.
47:54Some of those
47:54large sunstorms
47:56will hit the earth.
47:59In 1989
48:00sunstorms caused
48:02hundreds of millions
48:03of pounds worth
48:04of damage.
48:05In the year 2000
48:06the damage could be
48:08far worse.
48:09our vulnerability
48:14to space weather
48:16increases with
48:17almost every year
48:17that goes by.
48:19Today we rely
48:20much more
48:20on satellite technology
48:22than we did
48:23maybe 50 years ago
48:24and obviously
48:26with the more
48:27we rely on satellites
48:28the more dependent
48:29we become.
48:30There could be
48:31a rather catastrophic
48:32effect on much
48:33of civilization
48:34as we know it
48:35if one of these
48:36storms occurred
48:38at the wrong time
48:39at the wrong place.
48:40We could actually
48:41find ourselves
48:42unable to do things
48:44that we've been able
48:44to do for most
48:45of this century
48:46because we no longer
48:48have the necessary
48:50tools to do it
48:51because they've been
48:51removed from us
48:52at a stroke.
48:55Our only consolation
48:56is that space
48:57weather forecasters
48:58now have a clearer
48:59understanding than
49:00ever before
49:01of when a sunstorm
49:02will hit earth
49:03so at least
49:04we can expect it.
49:06The Space Weather
49:07Center has just
49:08warned that the
49:09biggest sunstorm
49:10to date is on its way.
49:12Power outages
49:13and widespread
49:14disruption to
49:15television and
49:16telephone networks
49:17are predicted
49:17across the
49:18northern hemisphere.
49:19Doctors warn
49:20that susceptible
49:21individuals refrain
49:22from driving
49:23or strenuous
49:24activity.
49:24We'll have an
49:25update on the hour.
49:27But no one's
49:28taking anything
49:29for granted.
49:30The satellite ACE
49:31with its vital
49:32space weather
49:32information could
49:34itself become
49:34the casualty
49:35of a sunstorm.
49:37The situation
49:38with ACE
49:38and sunstorms
49:39is very like
49:40the situation
49:42for an anemometer,
49:44a wind velocity
49:44meter trying
49:45to measure a
49:46hurricane.
49:47It can be ripped
49:48off its moorings
49:49and taken away.
49:50And unfortunately,
49:52ACE out there
49:52helping us measure
49:53sunstorms about
49:55to hit earth
49:55could be in fact
49:57damaged by just
49:58one of those storms.
49:59now here's the
50:02update on that
50:03sunstorm warning.
50:05The Space Weather
50:05Center now tells
50:06us that the
50:07sunstorm will
50:08miss earth
50:08completely.
50:09Good news for
50:10all you
50:10Bron...
50:11Equinox next
50:21Monday night
50:21asks the question
50:22what makes a
50:23genius?
50:24That's at the
50:24same time of
50:25nine o'clock.
50:26information about
50:49why sunstorms
50:50happen and
50:51how they can
50:51affect our lives
50:52is contained in
50:53a fully illustrated
50:54Channel 4 booklet.
50:55For your copy,
50:56please send a
50:56cheque or postal
50:57order for £3.50
50:59payable to
51:00Channel 4 TV
51:01to Equinox
51:02Sunstorm
51:03PO Box 4000
51:04London W12
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